The left considers prosecuting Donald Trump a guarantee that he will never be president again, while the MAGA faithful think the former commander in chief could ride a pity vote back into office.
Which side is right? It turns out, neither.
Trump’s legal problems are not helping him. His rise in the polls against President Biden is a result of a collection of problems besetting Biden — and problems that are getting worse. Inflation, immigration, the Israel-Hamas war (and Biden’s inability to deal with these issues) are boosting Trump and weighing down the incumbent.
For Trump, the fact is a guilty verdict in criminal court will hurt his chances, not help. The good news is that his legal troubles are not at the top of voters’ minds. He may lose in court, but policy failure by Biden could still put Trump back in the White House. Politico may be surprised, but the polling data has told this tale for some time.
The trials of Trump: What the numbers say
Though a cloud of uncertainty has followed Trump since he left office, the legal fireworks started with the indictment presented by Alvin Bragg on April 4, 2023. According to the RealClearPolitics rolling average, Trump and Biden were essentially tied at that time: 43.5 percent for Biden, 43.4 percent for Trump. One month after the indictments, the race had barely moved, with Trump improving less than 1 percent to 44.3 percent and Biden edging up to 43.8 percent.
Special Prosecutor Jack Smith indicted Trump on June 8 in the classified documents case, which also barely moved the needle. Trump averaged 44.6 percent on the eve of that indictment, falling back slightly a month later to 44 percent. In August, the second Smith indictment was handed down along with the Georgia indictment. Again, the ballot test against Biden barely moved.
Overall, Trump went from practically even with Biden the day before the Bragg indictment to an insignificant lead of 45 percent to 44.5 percent over Biden on Sept. 14, a month after all the criminal cases had been filed. Trump improved a mere 1.6 percent while Biden edged up 1 percent.
But the indictments did help Trump in the Republican primary. In addition to forcing his putative primary opponents to take his side on a major issue, the indictments gave Trump more publicity, drowning out Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and the rest. Any public policy issues faded in the face of the sensationalism of the indictments.
Curiously, the indictments did not improve Trump’s standing with Republican voters. What did happen was that some GOP voters who approved of Trump but were voting for DeSantis gravitated toward the ex president. According to the YouGov poll conducted in the days leading to the Bragg indictment, Trump had a favorable rating from Republican voters of 79 percent against 19 percent unfavorable. He led DeSantis 53 percent to 31 percent, and the proportion of Republicans who wanted him to run was 61 percent against 25 percent opposed. Trump’s ballot test vs. DeSantis was 26 points behind his favorables.
In the May 16 YouGov poll, Trump’s favorable numbers had not moved, but DeSantis started slipping away. Trump stayed at 79 percent favorable, but improved to 58 percent against DeSantis, who fell to 25 percent — a deficit of 21 points. By the time the flurry of indictments had come out, Trump’s GOP numbers were worse. Nonetheless, he solidified his primary position.
In the late August YouGov poll, Trump’s favorable dropped to 75 percent and 59 percent of Republicans wanted him to run. When tested against the entire GOP field, Trump pulled only 51 percent, but DeSantis, finishing second, was down to 14 percent. The one noticeable improvement for Trump was slightly consolidating the Republican vote when matched against Biden, carrying 84 percent in the August poll, up from 80 percent in April and 83 percent in June.
The story within the Republican Party was not that Trump’s indictments were helping; it was the crowded field of opponents was inexperienced and fumbling in the face of massive free publicity for Trump and the level of antipathy for Biden.
While Trump’s legal troubles have only modestly helped him within the GOP, they are still a problem for the general election.
In the Morning Consult January poll, voters were asked their willingness or unwillingness to vote for Trump if he were convicted of a crime and if he were sentenced to jail. The poll, which slightly leans Republican in its sample, showed 53 percent in the unwilling column if Trump were convicted and 46 percent “very unwilling” (55 percent and 48 percent, respectively, if sentenced to prison). Worse, 49 percent of independents were “very unwilling,” as were 14 percent of Republicans (51 percent and 18 percent, respectively, if sentenced to prison). The Politico/Ipsos poll, looking at only the Bragg indictment, was not as bad, with 36 percent of independents less likely to vote Trump and 32 percent overall with a guilty verdict.
With Trump likely needing at least 90 percent of Republicans and a solid majority of independents to win, these are not good numbers. Fortunately for Trump, there are more important things on the minds of voters.
Biden trouble is Trump’s trump card
One of the big mistakes in reading the polls is taking questions in isolation. If Trump’s trials are the only thing on voters’ minds, then any conviction is a campaign-killer. But the reality is reachable voters — that is to say, the voters who are not camped in the base of Trump or Biden — are concerned about other problems, such as inflation and immigration. And it is Biden’s mishandling of these issues that has propelled Trump ahead.
Trump’s separation from Biden started in November. The RCP ballot test had Trump with a slight lead on Nov. 1 at 45.4 percent for Trump and 44.9 percent for Biden. But by mid-December, the gathering migrant crisis, persistent inflation and the Hamas terrorist attacks had taken their toll. Trump gained nearly 2 points in the race to 47.2 percent, while Biden skidded down to 43.7 percent. By the end of January, that lead was proving durable, with Trump leading 47.5 percent to 43.6 percent. And Trump has led ever since.
This move by Trump is matched by Biden’s fall in approval ratings. On Labor Day, Biden’s favorable/unfavorable split was 53.6 percent disapprove to 42.0 percent approve, sliding to 56.3 percent disapprove to 40.3 percent approve as of the writing of this analysis — close to his record low. It seems that concerns about Biden’s age and leadership are more strongly affecting voters, with 55 percent of those polled believing that his age “severely” affects him (59 percent of independents) and 63 percent considering Biden weak (45 percent “very weak”), including 72 percent of independents (50 percent “very weak”).
Criminal sideshow
When you look at the numbers, the conclusion is that Donald Trump is rising because Joe Biden is falling. The inflection was in October with the Hamas attacks — not when the indictments were handed down. Soon after, Trump took a lead in the national ballot test and in key battleground states.
There is no evidence Trump will “guilty” his way back to the Oval Office. Criminal guilt for him is nothing but bad. However, given the drifting, fumbling and stumbling of the Biden administration, guilty might not matter.
Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.