Trump edges out Biden in three potentially game-changing areas

There are three key questions surrounding the 2024 presidential election that no one has been able to offer answers for — until now, in light of the findings of a new national poll by our firm, Schoen Cooperman Research. 

These answers will go a long way in determining who — eight months out from the election — the frontrunner is, with most polls showing a very close race. 

First, which is more politically deleterious: President Joe Biden’s apparent cognitive decline, or the numerous legal challenges and criminal charges facing Former President Donald Trump?

Second, can Trump win the general election if he is convicted of a federal crime? 

Third, if Biden were to bow out of the race by the time of the Democratic Convention, is Michelle Obama — the most well-liked figure in the Democratic Party — a viable candidate? 

Perhaps the most-debated question is the first one: Which problem, Biden’s age-related infirmities or Trump’s potential criminal conduct, is worse politically? Answer: Biden’s. 

A plurality of registered voters (36 percent) we surveyed indicate that Biden’s mental fitness is the more serious concern, while 33 percent say the same of Trump’s legal problems and unethical conduct and 22 percent are troubled by both equally. 

Our results were collected days after Trump was fined $354 million in a New York civil fraud suit, one of four major cases he is embroiled in, and amid the aggressive effort by the White House to push back on special counsel Robert Hur’s report on Biden, which exonerated the president legally, but devastatingly described him as an “elderly man with a poor memory.” 

Just as Trump and his defenders have decried these charges as a political witch hunt, Democrats have slammed the special counsel’s report as “inappropriate,” and continue to dodge uncomfortable questions about the president’s age and mental acuity. Both are futile exercises in denial and deflection, particularly those on Biden’s behalf. 

While the Biden campaign may take some solace in the fact that a plurality (46 percent) of the electorate believes Hur’s damning portrayal of Biden’s mental fitness was indeed inappropriate, at the same time, a plurality (47 percent) also agrees with Hur’s description of Biden’s age-related infirmities. 

Despite Democrats’ latest efforts to flip the script and cast doubt on Trump’s memory — giving heavy play to a recent speech where he confused G.O.P. presidential candidate Nikki Haley and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) — this has not taken the heat off of Biden. By 47 percent to 44 percent, Trump is seen as being mentally fit to be president, but by 50 percent to 39 percent, Biden is seen as not mentally fit. 

As for the second question: Could Trump still win the general election if convicted of a federal crime? Answer: Yes, barring any legal obstacles Trump might face.  

Trump leads Biden by 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent, in SCR’s presidential horserace, as well as in RealClearPolitics’ average of recent polls. But under a hypothetical scenario where Trump is convicted in any of the federal cases he is facing, our poll found that Biden only leads the presidential horserace by 1 point, 45 percent to 44 percent, a statistical tie.  

It is essential to note that voters categorically dislike both candidates and are pessimistic about the choice before them. However, according to our poll, the electorate — including the all-important swing voter group — ultimately feels that Trump did a good job in office and that his policies improved their lives, but say the opposite of Biden.  

Indeed, 55 percent of voters feel that Trump’s policies helped them personally, including an even stronger majority swing voters (58 percent); on the other hand, 52 percent of the electorate says that Biden’s policies have hurt them personally, including 60 percent of swing voters. In that same vein, majorities of the electorate approve of the job Trump did (52 percent) but disapprove of Biden’s work as president (55 percent). This is in line with RealClearPolitics’ recorded average of Biden’s approval rating being 15 points underwater, 41 percent to 56 percent. 

There is another key distinction between the two candidates: Republicans are enthusiastic about Trump, while Democrats are wary of Biden, which suggests problems with low turnout for the party. Most Democratic and lean-Democratic voters (54 percent) believe their party should not nominate Biden, while nearly 70 percent of Republican or lean-Republican voters think their party should choose Trump. 

This leads us to the third question: is Michelle Obama, the most well-liked figure in the Democratic Party a viable candidate, if Biden were to not run? Answer: tentatively, yes. 

While Obama has provided little to no indication that she plans on running, should Biden bow out of the race late in the game, Democrats may begin an aggressive effort to draft her, given the clear and well-documented issues with Vice President Kamala Harris’ electability.  

Even though Democratic voters would prefer Harris to be the nominee if Biden drops out, she trails Trump by 11 points in a hypothetical presidential horserace, 50 percent to 39 percent. Obama is the second-choice pick for Democratic voters and is tied with Trump in our presidential horserace, 45 percent to 45 percent. 

Unlike Harris, Obama is popular, and would not be saddled with the administration’s baggage. While a well-organized and robust campaign might be able to push numbers up further, her relative weakness to Trump is indicative of the degree to which the Biden administration has undermined all Democrats. 

In an indication of how negatively the current administration is viewed, Trump is more trusted than Biden on the issues that registered voters say are most important to them: immigration (Trump +29), the economy (Trump +11), inflation (Trump +9) and even gun violence (Trump +3). At a time of great global instability, Trump also has a major advantage on national security (Trump +23), the Russia-Ukraine War (Trump +9), and the Israel-Hamas War (Trump +8). 

To be sure, Trump is still a problematic candidate. A 61 percent majority of registered voters believe Trump committed crimes, and 50 percent think he should be prosecuted for those crimes. 

Despite Trump’s obvious flaws, he does have a leg-up, which is a reflection of the weaknesses of the current president and his administration, as well as the fact that most voters believe Trump improved their bottom line as president. 

While a lot can change over the next eight months, our poll suggests a clear general election advantage for former President Donald Trump.

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”