Very quietly, and without a lot of public attention, President Joe Biden has chipped away at former President Trump’s early lead in the general election, with recent polling showing Trump’s lead nationally down to just 2 points (44 percent to 42 percent) according to Morning Consult.
To be clear, Biden’s increase in the polls should be tempered by the fact that the polling is, at best, mixed. A recent CNN poll shows Trump with a 4 point lead (49 percent to 45 percent) nationally — nearly double the Morning Consult poll, although still pointing to Trump’s lead being somewhere between 2 and 4 points, hardly an insurmountable obstacle.
In addition, a slew of Morning Consult polls conducted in swing states show that Trump has maintained his lead in Arizona (Trump +3), Michigan (Trump +5) and Georgia (Trump +8).
However, Biden should feel somewhat optimistic that in Arizona and Michigan, Trump’s lead in the Morning Consult polls represents a decline from previous polling, pointing to an improving situation for the president.
Moreover, evidence is beginning to emerge that Biden has at the very least, stabilized the race and that the “Trump surge” has cooled off. Biden appears to have either narrowed Trump’s lead, or even taken the lead in at least some critical swing states, including Pennsylvania, where Biden holds a 1 point lead (43 percent to 42 percent), per Franklin & Marshall College, and Wisconsin, where Fox News polling shows a virtual tie.
Likewise, a national Quinnipiac poll shows President Biden leading by 6 points (50 percent to 44 percent). While certainly an outlier, when all of these polls are netted out, it is clear that, while Trump likely has a slim lead nationally and in a handful of swing states, Biden can make a credible argument that the race is considerably narrower than just a few months ago.
Why is this happening? There are several reasons. First, the economy continues to improve with the International Monetary Fund projecting a “soft landing” last week. Further, inflation continues to moderate, the job market remains robust — the country added 353,000 jobs last month — and the good news about the economy is beginning to settle in among voters.
In a major win for the Biden administration, The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index reported consumers are 27 percent more optimistic about the “short run” outlook for business conditions and 14 percent more optimistic about their finances. This is due, in major part, to salary increases beginning to outpace inflation, easing the burden on everyday Americans.
Second, Republicans remain divided. Nikki Haley continues to fundraise, banking on Trump’s legal woes as a reason for her continued candidacy. In a shift in tone since New Hampshire, Haley sees herself not only as the anti-Trump alternative but also as the best backup plan in the event Trump takes a plea deal and drops out of the race.
With Haley staying in the race at least through South Carolina, Trump, unsurprisingly, has engaged in divisive rhetoric coming out of New Hampshire, creating a larger fissure between MAGA and non-MAGA Republican voters.
In that same vein, Haley’s relatively satisfactory performance in the Granite State demonstrates that despite his grip over the GOP base, there is still some dissatisfaction with Trump among a not-insignificant bloc of Republican voters, which cannot be construed as anything but good news for Biden.
The other issue creating trouble for Trump is his continued — and mounting — legal problems, which have kept the former president in the news for all the wrong reasons. While a benefit in the short term among his base and in the primaries, his legal troubles are unlikely to help him in the general. It is more likely they will hurt him.
To that point, while early polling in swing states showed Trump with an advantage, were Trump to be convicted in the Georgia or Washington, D.C. cases related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, Biden would have a decisive edge.
According to New York Times/Siena polling, in six swing states that Trump initially carries, a conviction would cause a drastic shift: In aggregate across the six states, a conviction would cause a 14 point shift, giving Biden a 10 point lead in those states.
As Trump continues to lose in court, the Biden team is sticking to their guns. While Democratic strategists are urging the campaign to get louder and push back against Trump’s lies, that just isn’t — and has never been — Biden’s strategy.
Instead, the Biden camp has always been of the mind that Trump being in the news for the wrong reasons is better than Trump not being in the news at all. They consider Trump to be his own worst enemy, and on this, they are likely right. Trump’s habit of outlandish, bombastic comments often drives away independents, suburban women and more moderate Republicans — all of whom Trump needs to win.
That said, it would be foolish to say that Biden does not face serious challenges in his bid for a second term. He is facing increasing pressure from the left wing of his party due to his support for Israel in its war against Hamas, even if Biden has tried placating progressives with talk of recognizing a Palestinian state and issuing unprecedented sanctions against four Israelis over violence in the West Bank.
Biden is also being criticized for his policies towards Iran, which will almost certainly intensify now that three American soldiers were killed by Iranian proxies and the perception that the U.S. response will be weak out of fear of escalating the conflict.
Also helping Trump is his wide lead on immigration, an issue that has long plagued the Biden administration, evidenced by his dismal 33 percent approval on the issue, per the RealClearPolitics average. In seven swing states, more than one-half (52 percent) of voters say they trust Trump, rather than Biden (30 percent), on the issue, according to Bloomberg/Morning Consult polling.
For Biden and Democrats to have any hope of improving perceptions of their ability to handle the border, they must push the bipartisan immigration deal currently on the table through, and if that fails, Biden should explore options for an executive order to deal with the crisis.
Finally, Biden must be extremely careful in how he attacks Trump. The “threat to democracy” theme is not the one that will make a difference in 2024, even if it worked in 2020, despite Trump arguably presenting a bigger threat today.
Quite simply, voters are tired of existential threats and want to see and feel progress on kitchen-table issues that impact their lives every day: the economy, abortion, crime, immigration and the cost of living. Biden has a key chance to frame his candidacy around these in his upcoming State of the Union speech.
So, what do I expect will ultimately happen this November? In terms of its margin, the race will be very similar to what occurred in 2020. It will be very close, coming down to the seven swing states that have defined our politics in recent years.
As for Biden’s chances one month into this election year, there is a lot of work to be done. However, if I were the Biden campaign, I’d be more pleased with the road ahead than just a few months ago.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”