I have long said that I did not believe 2024 was the year for Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis to run for president. I believed his year was 2028.
I have also long believed that DeSantis has been an exceptional governor, not only one who saved Florida from many of the draconian dictates foisted upon Americans by unelected bureaucrats and seemingly power-hungry politicians, but one who inspired others around the nation to follow his lead.
Did DeSantis get it exactly correct with regard to the virus? No. But no one did. When so-called experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci admit that “six-foot social distancing” was an arbitrary number, it takes a while to separate the real experts — and facts — from those looking for fame, power, celebrity hugs or who are potentially shilling for a political party.
Many on the left and in the media will never admit to this, but it was just about three years ago when our nation seemed to be on the verge of going “full draconian” with regard to COVID-19; the lockdowns, the closing of schools; the masking of children; the demands for all to be vaccinated; and the attacks upon those who dared to question the “warp speed” drug. In my opinion — as well as the opinion of many others — it was DeSantis’s leadership and convictions that turned the tide against that pending draconian rule.
That’s one of the reasons he won in a landslide for reelection as governor in November 2022. He had become a political rock star to millions who feared the government overreach, which was threatening not only their individual liberties but also their livelihoods and the welfare of their children.
But that rock-star status came with a double-edged sword. Many instantly envisioned the then 43-year-old governor as a future president. Quite possibly the next president. Soon, the dream of many became a reality for DeSantis. About seven months after his massive reelection victory, he declared he was running for president on an audio livestream with Elon Musk.
That flawed and highly criticized rollout became a harbinger of mistakes and miscalculations. That said, even if almost all those mistakes and miscalculations had not happened, I believe DeSantis would have still found himself in the same position he is today.
Only because of the one miscalculation he could not afford to make: deciding to run against a “cult of personality” for president. That cult of personality being former President Trump.
Were Trump not in the 2024 contest, I believe DeSantis would have been the best Republican candidate by light years. But “if wishes were horses, beggars would ride.”
Again, while DeSantis and his team made mistakes, none of that really mattered. Trump was in the race, and that ultimately moved the needle for tens of millions of voters. Some of whom believe Trump was cheated out of the White House in 2020; more who believe the “lawfare” being waged against Trump by Democratic judges, prosecutors, district attorneys and state supreme court justices is blatant and unethical election interference against the leading opposition candidate to President Biden; and, finally and maybe most importantly, those tens of millions of voters likely believe that their lives and quality of life were better four years ago — and want to give Trump a second chance to build upon his policies.
I have also long believed that one of the reasons it took DeSantis so long to formally jump into the presidential contest was that his own instincts were telling him 2024 was not his year, precisely because of the “cult of personality” surrounding Trump. But then, having billionaires, supporters, senior staff and voters across the country screaming out that you’re a shoo-in for the nomination and the presidency is very heady stuff.
What DeSantis is about to find out is that Trump is a very forgiving and pragmatic candidate. Especially because of his decades in business, Trump recognizes talent and potential, and surely sees it in DeSantis. Look for the former president to rightfully rain compliments down upon DeSantis in the coming days, weeks and months.
Would Trump pick DeSantis as his running mate? While, contrary to myth, the Constitution does not bar a presidential and vice presidential candidate coming from the same state, it is still highly unlikely.
One of the best campaign rules I ever heard came from my old boss Haley Barbour, the former political director for President Ronald Reagan, head of the Republican National Committee and governor of Mississippi. Barbour said: “A vice presidential candidate has one job. Win his or her home state. Anything above and beyond that is gravy.”
Trump does not need DeSantis to win Florida. But he will need him to build upon his exceptional record over the next two years in the Sunshine State.
More than that, Trump would need DeSantis to help identify his successor to help keep Florida red and Trump’s policies flowing. In this space in June of 2023, I suggested that the best candidate to replace DeSantis as governor would be his wife, Casey. I still believe that.
By every indication, Ron and Casey DeSantis have a wonderful and loving marriage and have done a great job raising their children — a perception and belief shared by millions of Florida voters.
As great as DeSantis has been as governor, there is no guarantee that the Republicans can retain the Florida state House in 2026. For a host of reasons, Casey DeSantis would give them the best shot.
As for Ron DeSantis himself, he has the power within to rebuild his once-astronomical cache and “it factor” and reinsert himself into the conversation for 2028. By then, he will be only 49 years old, with even more experience under his belt.
That task begins today.
Douglas MacKinnon, a political and communications consultant, was a writer in the White House for Presidents Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush, and former special assistant for policy and communications at the Pentagon during the last three years of the Bush administration.