The opening shot in the Republican presidential primary begins tonight, as Iowa Republicans caucus for their favorite candidates, all hoping to have a chance to square off against incumbent President Joe Biden in November.
And while the final tallies remain to be seen, it can reasonably be assumed that former President Donald Trump will notch his first win in his bid to secure a third straight GOP nomination for president.
Indeed, the final poll before Iowans make their choice underscores Trump’s commanding lead over the rest of the field, as he leads Nikki Haley by 34 points (54 percent to 20 percent) (DT) and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) by 41 points (54 percent to 13 percent), according to Suffolk University polling.
That said, while Trump appears well positioned to walk away with the Hawkeye State’s 40 delegates, there will be plenty to look for under the surface.
Should Trump fail to exceed his grandiose expectations — his campaign has said they’re aiming to tie Bob Dole’s record 13 point win in 1988 — an opening may appear, particularly for Nikki Haley, who has seen a significant uptick in momentum, ahead of a much-friendlier New Hampshire contest.
Put another way, despite Trump’s commanding lead and likely victory, there will be plenty of insights to glean from tonight’s results, the most important of which is whether or not either Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis establishes themselves as the undisputed alternative.
In the words of Republican politico David Kochel: “There’s two races to watch: Trump vs. his expectations. And then Haley vs. DeSantis. Who can make the strongest argument coming out of Iowa and into New Hampshire and beyond?”
Moreover, tonight’s results may go a long way into answering the question of whether or not the slate of candidates that enters tonight’s caucus is the same that will head to New Hampshire.
The most interesting question that may be answered tonight is whether or not Iowa will be DeSantis’ ill-fated Little Big Horn, or will his massive investment in the state be rewarded with a strong second-place finish that allows him to stay in the race a bit longer?
In many ways, Iowa is likely to be the friendliest state to the Florida governor, who came out of November 2022’s midterms with seemingly infinite momentum, but whose campaign has floundered in recent months amid a cash crunch, staffing shakeups and the questionable decision to try and “out-Trump Trump.”
DeSantis has made no secret of the priority he places on Iowa, as his campaign and supportive Super PACs have spent millions of dollars in the Hawkeye State, including donating $100,000 to Iowa legislators who have endorsed him.
However, DeSantis is competing for many of the same evangelical, conservative voters as Donald Trump, and despite securing the endorsement of high-profile evangelical leaders in the state, if they do not coalesce around DeSantis en masse, he may fall to a disappointing third place.
Were that to happen, DeSantis would be wise to see the writing on the wall and withdraw, as it won’t get any easier for him from here.
Further, will Vivek Ramaswamy, who is in a distant fourth place with just 6 percent of the vote per the aforementioned Suffolk University poll, accept that voters have little appetite for another brash, in-your-face Republican and bow out?
Of course, it is near-impossible to handicap what Ramaswamy will do, but with his campaign stopping all ad spending last month, and with virtually no avenue to victory given that he and Trump share much of the same base, it may be that he will drop out of the race and angle for a position in a possible Trump administration, which he has served as an unofficial sycophant for since launching his bid.
Finally, the most interesting question that will be answered tonight is just how real Nikki Haley’s surge in the polls is, and will enough Iowans be receptive to her message that she finishes with a strong second-place finish that she can carry to New Hampshire?
For Haley to have a realistic shot at second, she will need to expand her base, which is currently concentrated on college-educated, more moderate urban voters, to include more conservative, rural voters.
To be sure, while challenging, this is not impossible. Haley has the endorsement of the influential Koch Brothers and their large grassroots network and is backed by Marlys Popma, the powerful former head of the Iowa GOP. However, one critical thing to look for tonight is whether or not those translate into increased rural support for the former South Carolina governor and ambassador to the U.N.
With that in mind, an absolutely critical thing to look for tonight will be turnout. With caucus day temperatures set to be the coldest in more than 50 years, older and rural turnout may be depressed, helping Haley and DeSantis and hurting Trump, who disproportionally stands to either benefit or lose the most depending on turnout.
Ultimately, while Iowa is the first contest, the winner is not guaranteed to win the nomination. In 2016, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) beat Trump by 4 points, only to watch Trump sweep the next three states before eventually becoming the nominee.
In that same vein, despite Trump’s monumental polling lead heading into the vote and his all-but-certain victory, Iowa may offer plenty of surprises and takeaways that could shape the rest of the GOP nominating process, particularly if someone not named Donald Trump has a standout night.
Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an advisor to President Clinton and the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”