Iowa doesn’t matter

One of those memorably sad “end of campaign” pieces that circulate each political cycle was published by Politico about Mike Pence in October, one week before he officially ended his campaign. The headline dissed the former vice president because he “can’t get a crowd of 15 to a Pizza Ranch,” drawing chuckles from political and media junkies. But the part that stood out most to me was buried within the lengthy piece.

A 66-year-old retiree who was among “two dozen” who had just finished listening to Pence at an “old pharmacy and lunch counter” spoke to Politico’s reporter about why he liked Pence but was still going to support Trump in the upcoming caucus. As an aside, the Iowan mentioned he had met Pence “no fewer than eight times in recent months.”

Say, how many times have you met the former vice president? Because this dude in Iowa has met him … eight times.

In another piece, from CNN in July, Pence’s campaign chairman touted his past success running Mike Huckabee’s campaign in 2008 and employing the “Pizza Ranch strategy.” Huckabee went to all 71 locations of the chain restaurant in Iowa, holding events with fewer than 50 people each, while hitting all 99 Iowa counties. Huckabee won Iowa.

But then he lost the nomination — by a lot — dropping out a couple months later.

These two anecdotes are telling when juxtaposed. Iowa has an enormous, borderline ridiculously outsized influence on how our political leaders focus their time and energy while campaigning for president. And simultaneously, Iowa simply doesn’t matter.

As we close out 2023 and look ahead to 2024, we’re about to hear a lot about Iowa. The corporate media and independent press alike will turn its attention to the state ahead of the January 15 Iowa caucus. Journalists and commentators will play up the drama — on cable news, it will feel like nothing is as important for the next two weeks as what happens in the Hawkeye State.

Ron DeSantis is making his final “two minute warning” push! It’s all “ground game” now for DeSantis (and Vivek Ramaswamy). But it’s a façade.

As someone who makes a living in the media, I’m arguing against interest here. But the reality is that Iowa is historically unimportant when it comes to determining our presidential nominees, especially on the GOP side.

Ted Cruz won Iowa in 2016. Rick Santorum won in 2012. Perhaps these finishes helped them clear the field, but ultimately each man fell short of the nomination. Huckabee won in 2008 — and John McCain, the eventual nominee, finished fourth. You have to go back to 2000 to find a GOP presidential nominee who won Iowa, with George W. Bush.

In fact, you could make the argument that if you want to win the GOP nomination, you’d be better off losing Iowa, given recent results.

Of course, that’s likely to change in 2024, and that’s another reason for Iowa’s inconsequentiality this cycle. Donald Trump, playing the role of both scorned incumbent and renegade challenger, has Iowa all but locked up. He’s up 33 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average, a position essentially unchanged over the past five months. A strong DeSantis second-place showing — maybe only losing by 20 — will feel like a pyrrhic victory.

New Hampshire is Iowa’s longtime companion in political and media overhype, and at least there we seem to be getting some action. Nikki Haley is fluctuating between 15 and 30 points behind Trump (based on RCP), although a Haley-backed poll released by her campaign this week puts her just three points behind the frontrunner. Of course, even if she wins the state, will it actually make a difference when the massive run of Super Tuesday states come into play? Not likely.

Now, the smart money is on 2024 being a year of unprecedented political chaos. So perhaps Iowa will shock us all, both the prognosticators and junkies in the press and the general electorate. Maybe the polls are historically wrong!

But I wouldn’t bet on it. We in the media spend an inordinate amount of time and emphasis covering Iowa and New Hampshire, hyping the spectacle for ratings and clicks. To be charitable and sincere, it is exciting — the drama of it all. The political season is now underway, officially. But that doesn’t mean what happens on January 15 will actually factor into the GOP nomination calculus.

I went to Iowa for the first time this year, for my cousin’s wedding. It was at a lovely winery, right among the cornfields, outside the fun college town of Iowa City. I’m sure members of the media who helicopter in during election cycles enjoy themselves. I’d go back.

But Iowa just doesn’t matter like it thinks it does — or we in the press want to convince you, and ourselves, that it does either.

Steve Krakauer, a NewsNation contributor, is the author of “Uncovered: How the Media Got Cozy with Power, Abandoned Its Principles, and Lost the People” and editor and host of the Fourth Watch newsletter and podcast.