Five reasons why this final Trump-less GOP debate really matters

All things considered, it’s been a pretty weird 2023 — but it won’t hold a candle to the bizarro world we’re about to enter in 2024. Both sides of the aisle have candidates whose positions feel simultaneously set in stone and completely in flux. There’s not just one third-party spoiler, but the potential for as many as four. There’s also a chance that one candidate is sitting in a prison cell come Election Day on November 5.

Which brings us to the final major political event of 2023: the fourth GOP presidential debate, airing tonight on NewsNation. It’s the final debate of the year — and could represent the final debate of the entire political cycle, depending on how events transpire next year.

We have three exceedingly competent moderators in Megyn Kelly, Elizabeth Vargas and Eliana Johnson — and one, in Kelly, who is perhaps the single individual best suited for this role in the country, given her experience in past debates and the way her current vibe precisely matches the moment. (Full disclosure — my day job is as Megyn’s executive producer for “The Megyn Kelly Show”.)

Former President Donald Trump has again declined to show up — like a poker player sitting on a massive chip stack but folding hand after hand. Still, I can make the objective case that this debate really matters. Here are five reasons:

1. The back-up plan for a chaos-filled 2024: Unlike perhaps any other year, there is value to being the runner-up in the 2024 GOP primary. Whatever you think of the four criminal trials Trump is facing, there is a very real threat of serious prison time that could come before the year is out. Will the party stand by this dire situation? We’ll know a lot more by the time the GOP convention begins on July 15 in Milwaukee — and accruing delegates ahead of that key date will matter, even if Trump is way ahead. For candidates like former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and Gov. Ron DeSantis, being the first alternative is important. And even for Vivek Ramaswamy, if the party decides to sway toward the most Trump-like non-Trump candidate, he’s in line to benefit too.

We also can’t discount another scenario, which, while unlikely, is not unthinkable. I wrote last month about Trump’s 1987 bestselling book “The Art of the Deal” as a guide for 2024. If Trump is facing significant prison time and is offered a deal we know the establishment would love to give him — a “get out of jail free” card, with all charges dropped, in exchange for him dropping out but playing kingmaker and picking his successor — is it possible he takes it?

2. So you’re telling me there’s a chance: It’s also plausible that the polls showing a gigantic Trump lead not just nationally but in the key early states are less solid than they appear. CNN’s poll guru Harry Entin recently laid out a scenario where Haley overperforms in Iowa, and that momentum catapults her to a shock victory in New Hampshire, where unpredictable results are known to occur. Likely? Of course not. But anything is possible.

Remember in 2020, when it appeared like Bernie Sanders was headed toward the nomination after getting the highest share of the vote in each of the first three states — Iowa, New Hampshire and, surprisingly, Nevada? Shortly thereafter, non-Bernie candidates like Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar dropped out and threw their support behind Joe Biden, propelling him to the nomination. Those sorts of occurrences are less likely to happen on the GOP side, but it shows that a frontrunner’s lead can suddenly evaporate.

3. Trump’s big decision looms: But Trump is the likely GOP nominee. Still, he won’t have Mike Pence by his side as vice president this time — that we know for sure. So who will it be? The three top candidates (sorry Chris Christie) have an opportunity to land the job, and their performance in these debates could prove to be decisive.

Trump is strategic, not personal — he’s going to pick the VP he thinks helps him win the presidency. That’s why DeSantis — and yes, even Haley — are still realistically in the running.

4. Debates really do matter: Every data point going back multiple presidential cycles shows us that debates really do matter when it comes to the nomination. Yes, 2024 will be weird — we know that going in. But there’s no reason to think it will be any different.

When we put aside spike debate performances that sparkled and faded, like Herman Cain or Elizabeth Warren, you have Mitt Romney in 2012, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 as the most consistently solid debate performers over the entirety of their campaigns. We get only four GOP primary debates this cycle, but ending strong creates a final impression on early-state voters as we enter the new year.

5. It’s just fun: Look, there’s just not a lot of compelling television anymore. And whether you’re a political junkie or media obsessive like me, or more of a casual consumer just looking for something entertaining, smart people arguing with each other certainly can fit the bill.

So settle in with a bowl of popcorn and your cocktail of choice. Whatever happens, you’ll likely remember this moment for how it influenced the crazy year to come — however that may be.

Steve Krakauer, a NewsNation contributor, is the author of “Uncovered: How the Media Got Cozy with Power, Abandoned Its Principles, and Lost the People” and editor and host of the Fourth Watch newsletter and podcast.