If Biden’s polling is in bad shape now, what happens if the economy worsens?
This is no mere hypothetical question. Biden is already doing poorly in the polls, and the Federal Reserve’s latest estimates are for the economy to grow by one-third less next year than it has this year.
In 2020, Biden beat Trump by 4.4 percentage points in the popular vote, 51.3 percent to 46.9 percent. Since then, Biden has undergone a precipitous drop. On Wednesday, Real Clear Politics’ average of national polling data puts Biden’s net approval at minus-13.8 percent: 41.1 percent approval to 54.9 percent disapproval. In its average of national polling of a 2020 rematch, Biden trails Trump by 0.1 percent: 44.1 percent to 44 percent.
Many issues have factored into Biden’s fall in popularity. The disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, America’s urban crime wave, our uncontrolled southern border, his son’s growing legal problems and the administration’s overall performance have all taken their toll.
There is also the economy — the universal political variable, affecting everyone. It is the lowest common denominator of American politics.
For Biden, inflation has been extraordinarily high, while economic growth has been mediocre at best. According to Bureau of Economic Analysis data, following 2020’s COVID-caused collapse, 2021 saw real GDP predictably rebound strongly at 5.9 percent. However, since then, the economy has slowed significantly. It grew by only 2.1 percent in 2022, then just 2.2 percent and 2.1 percent in the first and second quarters of this year, respectively.
Recent Gallup polling notes that 53 percent trust Republicans to keep “the country prosperous over the next few years,” versus 39 percent who trust Democrats. That 14-point difference is greater than Biden’s negative approval rating deficit; it is also Republicans’ “widest advantage on this measure since mid-1991.”
More troubling still for Biden is the partisan breakdown on the future prosperity question. Independents chose Republicans over Democrats on future prosperity, 52 percent to 34 percent — larger than the overall gap. Even 7 percent of Democrats chose the Republicans.
In the past, Democrats have enjoyed wide advantages on this metric. In September 2007, they were up by 20 percentage points; in July 1992, they were up by 11 percentage points. Also notable: Republicans lost the presidency in 1992 and 2008.
So, if the public’s mood is bad for Biden now, what happens if the economy performs even worse, as the Federal Reserve projects that it will?
The Federal Reserve’s latest survey shows a median economic growth projection of 2.1 percent this year. For 2024, the survey predicts just 1.5 percent growth — almost one-third lower than this year’s increase. And 2024 happens to be the year when Biden will be running for reelection.
Of course, the economy is only one variable that voters will examine as they consider their vote for president next year. But it is likely to be the most pervasive and significant.
Projections are just that — predictions, not facts. The economy could outperform them. However, even a performance significantly better than projected would leave the economy’s performance around the same middling level that has seen Biden slip so far in the polls. It should also be noted that the economy could underperform the Fed’s projections.
Nor will Biden have new spending to further juice the economy going forward. With Democrats’ full control of Congress during Biden’s first two years, the administration received massive, COVID-level spending infusions from the federal government. With Republicans’ capture of the House in the 2022 midterms, no more such spending increases will get through Congress.
Although substantial spending remains on the books, that spending was already there. It has had its impact during Biden’s already-mediocre economic performance. It was also considered in the Federal Reserve’s future economic projections. More importantly, it has already have been taken into account by voters.
Taken together, things are bad for Biden overall, particularly on the economy. And the economy is likely to perform worse when it matters most. As a result, he probably has not yet hit rock bottom.
J.T. Young was a professional staffer in the House and Senate from 1987-2000, served in the Department of Treasury and Office of Management and Budget from 2001-2004, and was director of government relations for a Fortune 20 company from 2004-2023.