A third party in the House? McCarthy’s fall makes it possible

There has never been a successful third-party movement in Congress — but there has never been a better time for one to emerge than right now.

American politics has been a rigid two-party system almost without interruption for more than two centuries. Still, the House GOP — which just saw a House Speaker brought down for the first time in history, and will struggle for days to find the next leader willing to deal with their mad MAGA fringe — has created an opening for a moderate middle party to emerge.

Imagine one of the 31 Republican members of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus decides that they’ve had enough with the MAGA tail wagging the House GOP dog. They get together a group of four or five moderate GOP House members, many of whom are in districts that lean towards Biden. If they can get just two or three Democrats to join them, they can form a third party in the House that could determine not just who the next Speaker is, but the legislative priorities of the chamber until the 2024 elections.

A bipartisan group of as few as seven could prevent any Republican from being seated and threaten to elect a moderate Democrat, essentially telling both parties “let’s make a deal.” Then Republicans are not choosing between a hard conservative or an extreme conservative — they are choosing between a moderate Republican Speaker or a moderate Democratic Speaker.

Why would any House member take such a risk, knifing the party that put him or her in office? Well, why did Rep. Matt Gaetz rebel against McCarthy, not just this week but over and over? Because, in this era of social media and online donations, of cable TV news fame and polarization, members don’t need leaders as much as leaders need members.

And while there are fewer and fewer House members in swing districts that might want an independent voice, there are more than enough to make a difference in this tightly divided House. Right now, the Democrats representing districts that voted for Trump and the Republicans representing districts that voted for Biden know that as polarization rises, they are unlikely to be reelected.

If they decide reelection is at least as likely with a new party as their old one, look out. And they’d be in charge for a change; moderates aren’t powerful in either the Democratic or Republican caucus right now.

But if they succeed at creating a third party in Congress, they would become the linchpin of the House for the next year. Polarized Democrats and polarized Republicans would have to craft legislation that would get the support of this little party.

There is a hunger in the country for leaders who will rise above bitter partisanship and seek compromise to solve problems. It’s one big reason Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in 2020, because Biden preached compromise and bipartisanship while Trump endlessly banged the drums of extremism and vitriol.

Sure, a successful third party in Congress offering to coalition with either major party has never happened. But a Speaker has never been brought down in mid-session by a vote to vacate, either.

So … which moderate Republicans and Democrats want to suddenly become the most powerful people in the House of Representatives?

Jeremy D. Mayer is an associate professor of policy and government at George Mason University, and the coauthor of the forthcoming “The Changing Political South” (Oxford, 2024).