The Trump collapse is coming — and he’s taking Biden down with him

In the current attention-deficit-disorder, clickbait world of the media and punditry, you would think the presidential election is just days away. Bad polling has sent Democrats into a spiral of depression and Trumpers into orbit. But Election Day is more than a year away, and an avalanche of legal troubles is about to crash down on Donald Trump (and more likely than not sweep him away) — and the collateral damage could include President Biden and the Democrats. 

Trump: Self-saboteur 

Trump is right that the mainstream media and much of the institutional power in Washington and New York are out to get him. But they hardly need to make any effort, given that the former president is his own worst enemy. Whether cycling through lawyers to the point that he now seems stuck not with the “B Team” but the gang that washed out of the “B Team,” or going on practically daily unhinged rants that surely are not reviewed by anyone, Trump is ever digging himself deeper into a legal hole. 

Consider that immediately after losing the first E. Jean Carroll lawsuit, Trump went on CNN and handed Carroll more ammunition for her second lawsuit, or that his own lawyers may have admitted criminal conduct. Prosecutors must be constantly weighing their options on requesting gag orders, given the more Trump and his team talk, the better things are for the prosecution. 

Contrary to popular opinion, Trump does not do well under pressure. And the pressure is going to mount exponentially over the next five months. The presidential hopeful has to run the gauntlet of two nasty appetizers in New York before the main felony trials start: a fraud case that could cost Trump $250 million (now underway) and a second suit from Jean Carroll due to start Jan. 15. He is riding a long losing streak in court since November 2020, and given his behavior and his fumbling legal team, it seems a safe bet he will keep on losing. 

Mixed in is a pending late October trial and dress-rehearsal with Sidney Powell and Kenneth Chesebro as the first defendants among the 19 charged in Georgia. If Powell and Chesebro get convicted, it’s a good bet that a portion of the remaining 17 will be clamoring for plea deals — deals that will most certainly require testifying against Trump (one guilty plea thus far). 

In sum, Trump will likely enter the federal courthouse in March with two civil trial losses under his belt and new witnesses for the Fulton County prosecution prepared to testify. As the screw tightens over the next several months, Trump could be melting down on a daily basis, handing the prosecution more and more evidence. 

Trump convention collapse? 

With Trump’s first criminal trial due to start March 4 and his second due in May (and no movement by either judge to change dates), it seems logical to expect a verdict in the first trial by mid-May. The classified documents charges are more straightforward and certainly look like a slam-dunk. According to CBS News reporting, seven Espionage Act cases since 2017 resulted in guilty verdicts (just one trial) and the minimum sentence was 18 months. Note that Trump is also facing conspiracy charges. 

With two federal trials set, the Georgia trial will have to be either shoehorned before the March federal trial (with difficulty) or start after the May trial. That means Trump could head to the July Republican convention out on bail with two sets of felony convictions, two prison sentences and headed to another felony trial to face a raft of plea-bargained witnesses for the prosecution. And forget about Alvin Bragg and his weak indictment — Bragg can’t get out of the way fast enough. 

Where would Trump be in the polls then? And what would his mental state be? According to recent polling, 57 percent would not vote for Trump if convicted of a felony vs. 26 percent who would. Would the prospect of nominating an increasingly unhinged Trump trailing in the polls to Biden and facing even more legal trouble finally knock the 2024 front-runner out?  

Given the serial incompetence of the Republican Party over the past two years, that’s still a tossup. But let’s say that Trump’s support crumbles enough that, staring at defeat, he makes a deal for Tim Scott to take his place (stipulating Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley cannot be on the ticket). And that would leave the Democrats with a big problem.  

Democrats’ gamble comes up snake eyes 

Biden and Trump need each other. At an average net unfavorable of negative 16 percent, Trump is only polling well due to Biden’s age and uneven (to put it charitably) administration. Conversely, only the extreme level of hatred for Trump enthuses the Democratic base. These are two candidates who only survive as “not the other guy.” 

But if “the other guy” is out of the picture, everything is likely to change.  

Currently Biden’s polling is about as bad as it gets. The “right direction/wrong track” polling averages negative 44 percent (23 percent right track, 67 percent wrong direction). Biden is net 13-points unfavorable. Biden and Trump have been circling around each other on the ballot test over the past two years, with Biden trailing in the RealClearPolitics average by 1.3 percent. In spite of Trump’s indictments and over-the-top behavior, the incumbent has only registered over 50 percent in just one outlier poll in two years (curious there no media hyperventilating over that poll). 

A late switch to Tim Scott (or another top contender) would completely scramble Democratic calculations. Facing a more energetic and articulate candidate – not to mention an ethnic minority — is not what the Democrats want to see.  

While they will surely try to wrap Trump around any Republican replacement, it’s just not the same. Plus, any Republican replacement for Trump would likely give that candidate a “relief rally” in the polls. A candidate like Scott could come out of Milwaukee with a 15-point lead on Biden. Even with poor name ID, the South Carolina senator tops Biden in recent polling and is one of the few American politicians net favorable. 

There is little question that, faced with anyone but Trump, forces in the Democratic Party would want to nominate anyone but Biden — and they would have a month to do it. The scramble would be the biggest nominating spectacle since the 103-ballot 1924 Democratic convention — with potentially the same general election result. Would Biden step aside or fight? Imagine an attempted palace coup by VP Kamala Harris or a civil war between Harris and California’s Gavin Newsom. 

The Republican Party has been a directionless mess during the Biden administration, fraught with terrible leadership and a toxic Trump at the top of the nominating contest. Yet, the GOP could still manage to win big in 2024 through the stumbling of the Democrats and dumb luck. 

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.