Aug. 23 was a day of ironic infamy and stunning coincidence.
The private jet carrying Russia’s Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin and his deputy, Dmitry Utkin, exploded, killing all aboard in what was almost certainly a successful assassination.
Later that day, in what was the first Republican presidential debate, would-be rhetorical assassins were firing blanks trying to terminate the political life of the almost certain nominee, Donald Trump. And not even a fourth indictment in Georgia seemed a deterrent.
Both Russian President Vladimir Putin and former U.S. President Donald Trump emerged as clear-cut winners of the day. Two months ago, Putin was on the rocks. Confused and unable to react to Prigozhin’s march to Moscow protesting the incompetence of the special military operation in Ukraine, expectations were that Russia’s president was fighting to retain power. Now, there is no question who is in charge — at least for now.
Putin’s semi-eulogy to his deceased comrade withstanding, it’s likely that few in Russia believe Putin played no role in this deadly charade. Putin is trying to lay blame on Ukraine and using disinformation to pursue plausible deniability for the murders. Such is life in Russia today that Russians can strongly suspect Putin is responsible and remains primus inter pares — first among equals — but at the same time, be prepared to accept that Ukraine was at fault.
That leaves Putin with a very tough decision. Will he award the former Wagner head an Order of Lenin? Or is a Michelin star or two a better option for his ex-chef?
In Milwaukee, the Republican debate was more of a so-called debate because it lacked the main contender. In that regard, Trump made the right choice. Fox News anchors Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum tried without success to discipline the audience and the contenders for the crown. And none of the eight aspirants on the stage was able to lay a glove on, let alone deliver a knockout punch, to the former president.
Trump was treated so gently because no one was prepared to abandon the Republican MAGA base on which the nomination will rest. Unfortunately, the one unasked question was the most important. Would any of those present accept the vice presidency under Trump?
All would have likely declined. But former Govs. Chris Christie (R-N.J.) and Asa Hutchinson (R-Ark.) seem like the only ones who would have meant it. Both have been excommunicated by Trump’s supporters for harsh statements against their candidate. Should Trump attend the next debate, scheduled for late September at the Reagan Library in California, it could be a coronation if he pops the question to his running mate. That would neutralize his former vice president and others who are surreptitiously competing for the second spot.
Of the major blunders made in the debate, two seemed to have been downplayed.
Vivek Ramaswamy accused his rivals of “being bought and paid for.” That could be his undoing despite his attempt to portray himself as a younger version of Trump.
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) obviously slept through his class at Harvard Law on posse comitatus; the illegal use of the military for law enforcement purposes. Asked if he would send U.S. Special Forces into Mexico to take out drug cartels, Desantis unhesitatingly answered yes to the delight of the audience with perhaps the loudest response of the night. After the debate, he doubled down. Does he know the law?
Worse, does he realize sending U.S. forces into a neighboring country that is also the United States’s largest trade partner is an act of war? Or does he believe Congress will authorize the use of force or declare the cartels narco-terrorists? And does he understand that the cartels in many cases are better armed than the Mexican military?
This is not similar to ordering SEAL Team Six to an Abbottabad residence in Pakistan to capture or kill Osama bin Laden. Suppose the cartels captured or killed some of our Special Forces. Then what?
Both the killing of Prigozhin and the presidential debate are depressing insights into the realities of life in Russia and America. Before and after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has politically played for keeps. The czars and Stalin were ruthless in eliminating opponents and innocents. That is Russia today.
America is divided on virtually every issue, regardless of importance and priority. But, to many, “wokeness,” transgender rights, gestation periods, God and gun control are not equivalent in significance to defending the nation and Constitution, governing competently and respecting the law. And few on the debate stage or Donald Trump seemed prepared to address these divisions head-on.
The final irony: Who benefited most from Aug. 23? You know the answer.
Harlan Ullman, Ph.D. is senior advisor at Washington, D.C.’s Atlantic Council and the prime author of “shock and awe.” His 12th book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large,” is available on Amazon. He can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman.