Battleground in Florida as election hinges on Puerto Rican population

Florida is shaping up to be ground zero in the midterm elections next week, with critical Senate and governor races on razor thin margins. The result and subsequent impact on the electoral future for Florida could ultimately be decided by the exploding Puerto Rican population in the state, a group that tends to vote overwhelmingly in favor of Democrats.

Years of mismanagement created a seemingly unsolvable crisis in Puerto Rico. Today, the territory faces more than $74 billion in bond debt and an additional $49 billion in unfunded pension liabilities. Furthermore, nearly 10 percent of the population is unemployed while nearly 40 percent rely on food stamps. The labor participation rate is a pitiful 40 percent thanks to vast regulation and welfare checks that often pay better than jobs.

The solution? Spend more! Rather than decrease spending to match tax collection levels, Puerto Rican bureaucrats simply issue bonds to pay teachers, police officers, and firefighters. The problem is compounded with each new bond. Massive waves of Puerto Rican residents have fled their home each year to escape the grim fiscal disaster and increasing crime since the economic crisis began on the island back in 2006.

{mosads}Then Hurricane Maria, the worst natural disaster on record to hit the island, struck last year and made an already bad situation even worse. Hurricane Maria killed an estimated 2,975 people in Puerto Rico, caused more than $90 billion in damage, and accelerated the exodus. The devastating storm prompted many who were already thinking of leaving Puerto Rico for economic reasons to finally pack up for the mainland.

The majority of those who left relocated to Florida. Before Hurricane Maria hit, more than one million people of Puerto Rican descent lived in Florida. Since the storm, up to an estimated 75,000 more have permanently settled in the state. The new population wave will have a significant impact in a swing state like Florida, where elections are typically won by close margins. Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election in the state by just 1.2 points with less than 113,00 votes over Hillary Clinton.

Puerto Ricans are changing the political reality in Florida. The number of Hispanic registered voters in the state has grown at a rate three times faster than the overall number of registered voters there during the last two years. Cuban Americans, of whom half voted for Trump, historically have dominated Hispanics in Florida elections. However, the has seen a 30 percent increase in native Puerto Ricans eligible to vote since 2016 alone. Puerto Ricans make up 31 percent of the current Hispanic eligible voters in Florida, the exact same fraction as Cubans in the state.

The economic disaster in Puerto Rico was largely caused by liberal policies, but ironically it is now liberals in Florida and elsewhere who are poised to benefit electorally. As American citizens from birth, Puerto Ricans enjoy full voting rights once they reach the mainland. They have voted for Democrats in overwhelming numbers in past elections. Indeed, Clinton won 72 percent of the Puerto Rican vote in Florida in 2016.

This is why Rick Scott, the Republican Senate candidate and current Florida governor, has gone out of his way to welcome the new Puerto Ricans in his state. Under his direction, Florida took the lead on storm response in 2017. He attended the anniversary memorial of Hurricane Maria on the island and even publicly disagreed with President Trump on the death toll. It is a tightrope for Scott, as 57 percent of the new Florida residents registered as Democrats, compared to 12 percent who registered as Republicans, yet 75 percent view him positively.

{mossecondads}His leadership in the recovery made an impact, but it also demonstrates a shrewd understanding of the political calculus. The growing number of Puerto Ricans in Florida will likely be the key voters in crucial races in the state next week. Scott must balance what has been an automatic Democratic voter registration for mainland Puerto Ricans and the reality of his Senate race. Furthermore, chances are that the the shift away from reliably Republican Cuban American voters to a swing constituency will affect Florida politics for generations to come.

Still, Democrats have the upper hand with Puerto Rican voters. Many politicians on the left, including Clinton, have argued the island should be allowed to file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy, a move that would enable the government to shed most of its debt through a federal bailout. There is also a movement championed by the left for Puerto Rican statehood.

Meanwhile, heading into the midterm elections, Trump has been a surprisingly divisive wildcard on all topics Puerto Rico. He got into a famous spat with the mayor of San Juan, calling Carmen Yulín Cruz “nasty” during the Hurricane Maria recovery effort. Trump also accused San Juan politicians of dishonestly spending federal money sent in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria, railing that the funds were being used for “other obligations” such as paying down their irresponsible debt.

Many of the underlying economic issues that prompted the island exodus, especially before Hurricane Maria, were caused by liberal policies and will not be solved anytime soon. The number of Puerto Ricans on the mainland will only grow in the coming years. The Republicans must widen their “big tent” if they want to stay competitive in the ultimate swing state and beyond. His unique approach may give Scott victory next week. National Republicans need to take notes if he wins. Regardless of the outcome, there will be profound effects of the wider Puerto Rican diaspora that the Republicans will either adapt to or simply perish.

Winning new Puerto Rican residents on leadership and dinner table issues is a tough but worthwhile pursuit for the Republicans. The island exodus is a microcosm of the changes in the wider American electorate over the next several decades. Its political lessons will make or break both parties.

Kristin Tate is a libertarian writer and author of “How Do I Tax Thee? A Field Guide to the Great American Rip-Off.” Follow her on Twitter @KristinBTate.