Is Ron DeSantis the next Scott Walker?

Nine months ago, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was regarded in GOP circles as a savvier, younger and more electable version of former President Trump — in other words, Trump without the baggage. 

Now, DeSantis is more commonly typified as the next Scott Walker, the former Wisconsin governor who famously dropped out of the 2016 Republican presidential primary after being considered an early front-runner. 

Indeed, a new poll in the all-important first primary state, Iowa, finds DeSantis trailing Trump by 30 points, with 16 percent support to Trump’s 46 percent. Further, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is gaining momentum on DeSantis, having eclipsed double-digits for the first time with 10 percent support, a sign that voters seeking an alternative to Trump are looking past DeSantis. 

As DeSantis has struggled in the polls, mega-donors have grown skittish and recent headlines highlighting internal campaign chaos have only added fuel to this dumpster fire. DeSantis’s campaign is reportedly short on cash, firing staff, shaking up key leadership positions and failing to court small donors, indicating a lack of voter enthusiasm. 

This has prompted the campaign to embark on a course correction. According to reports, this will mean more retail politicking and fewer stump speeches, a focus on key issues nationally and in early primary states rather than on DeSantis’s record in Florida, and more access for the mainstream media, as opposed to only conservative outlets. The first signs of this strategic shift came last week when DeSantis sat down for a taped interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper and held intimate, pared-down events in Iowa and South Carolina. 

However, this reset is likely too little, too late. For one, DeSantis is not a retail politician by nature, having been described by his own donors and Republican insiders as “reserved and dry” as well as “arrogant” and “awkward.” And although his interview with Tapper marked a shift in earned media coverage, DeSantis largely voiced familiar talking points and likely didn’t persuade anyone — whether traditional Republicans or MAGA voters — to give him another look.  

Furthermore, the buzz surrounding the sit-down was overshadowed by Trump’s announcement that he is likely to face charges in the special counsel’s investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021, storming of the Capitol. Trump stealing the spotlight last Tuesday was emblematic of how difficult it has been — and will continue to be — for DeSantis to overtake the former president, whose grip on the Republican base only grows stronger as his legal troubles pile up. 

And to be sure, DeSantis has quite a bit of ground to make up. He trails Trump by approximately 30 points in national Republican primary polling and is also behind in the first four primary states (though public opinion polling in each is admittedly sparse at this point). Just as notable, DeSantis’s position in the race has remained stagnant since he launched his campaign in mid-May, and his current average vote share (21 percent) in national polls is half of what it was in January (40 percent); meanwhile, Trump has markedly improved his standing. 

Doubts surrounding DeSantis’s viability were exacerbated by the Federal Election Commission’s release of second quarter campaign finance filings this week, which showed that 70 percent of DeSantis’s donors have contributed the maximum amount allowed by law, yet only 15 percent of his contributions are from small donors. The obvious lack of strong grassroots support spells trouble for the longevity and financial health of DeSantis’s campaign, given the rate at which he’s spent cash — out of $20 million raised, he spent $8 million, at a rate of $1.5 million a week. 

If the goal of DeSantis’s interview with CNN’s Tapper was to reassure wary donors of the campaign’s vitality, it was a letdown. In terms of highlights, DeSantis laid out his plans to nationalize his anti-wokeness crusade to the military, evaded tough questions on his electability by decrying these suggestions as a false media narrative and echoed a conspiracy theory that Democratic states allow “post-birth abortions,” while refusing to say whether he would support a national abortion ban similar to the one he implemented in Florida.  

The only real pivot was DeSantis playing up his military credentials and emphasizing his foreign policy priorities vis-à-vis China, which theoretically could help distinguish him, being the only veteran in the race. Still, DeSantis dodged specific questions regarding how he would handle both the war in Ukraine and China’s aggression toward Taiwan but delved into specifics on combatting “wokeness” in the Department of Defense, veering back to familiar culture war territory. 

Though polling suggests that Republican primary voters are supportive of DeSantis’s anti-woke initiatives in schools and the military — i.e., reversing diversity, equity and inclusion policies — these issues are not necessarily top of mind. A recent Morning Consult poll found that 84 percent of Republican primary voters say economic issues — which DeSantis often sidesteps — are “very important” when deciding whom to vote for, while only 51 percent said the same of “fighting woke ideology.”  

Furthermore, the segment of the Republican electorate that is most responsive to hot-button “us versus them” culture war issues — the MAGA base — will likely remain in Trump’s corner. The former president continues to find success in using his ongoing legal troubles to buttress his core positioning as a martyr of the conservative right — a dynamic that was only reinforced the day of DeSantis’s sit down with CNN’s Tapper. Tapper’s very first question was centered on the Trump case, which DeSantis responded to by claiming that the Biden administration is weaponizing the Department of Justice and FBI against political opponents, while also saying he wants his party to move on from the 2020 election. 

At this point, DeSantis’s best shot at winning the Republican nomination is running an intensive ground game to turn out conservative voters in early primary contests with the help of the Never Back Down super PAC, which plans to spend $100 million on this effort. Still, given the headwinds DeSantis faces, this likely won’t be enough to prevent him from flaming out à la Scott Walker. 

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to former President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is: “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”