State of play: The 2024 Republican primary field takes shape 

Last week, former Vice President Mike Pence, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum joined the crowded field of candidates vying for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. 

Neither Pence, Christie nor Burgum is expected to eclipse double-digits in the polls — as the race will likely remain a two-man contest between former President Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), the only individuals polling above 10 percent — though their candidacies may still be impactful.  

By throwing their hats in the ring, all three men have contributed to the further splitting of the non-Trump primary vote, in turn making Trump’s path to the nomination more certain, and DeSantis’s less so.  

While DeSantis might be Trump’s toughest competition, the race is already incredibly one-sided, with the former president leading by an average of 31 points nationally and by at least 18 points in each of the four early primary states, according to RealClearPolitics. 

Crucially, it remains to be seen exactly what impact the unprecedented federal indictment of Donald Trump will have on voters, yet it is highly likely that it will fire up Trump’s base and force Republicans to rally around the former president — much as they did following Trump’s indictment in New York City in April — which may boost Trump’s lead over DeSantis and the rest of the field. 

Further, Pence, Christie and Burgum’s candidacies are indicative of the political headwinds DeSantis — who was once considered to be the most viable alternative to Trump — faces as he begins his campaign in earnest.  

Following November’s midterms, in which DeSantis cruised to a historic victory in Florida while multiple Trump-backed candidates across the country lost winnable races, he appeared well-positioned to overtake Trump as the party’s leader. However, DeSantis’s attempts to “out-Trump Trump” by advancing an ultra-conservative agenda in Florida have cost him his lane in the GOP field and robbed the Republican establishment of a single non-Trump candidate to unify behind. 

This is not to say that DeSantis can be fully counted out. He remains popular with the GOP electorate — his 68 percent favorability among Republicans tops all candidates aside from Trump, who sits at 78 percent favorable, per Economist/YouGov polling. And he has the support of a deep-pocketed super PAC, which is committed to spending $100 million on pro-DeSantis voter outreach in the first four primary states alone. 

Those efforts may prove successful, as it remains to be seen what the impact will be on Trump’s candidacy if he faces additional indictments, either in Georgia or for his role in the events of Jan. 6. An aggressive campaign by DeSantis may be sufficient to win in Iowa or New Hampshire, states where Trump is most vulnerable, especially if he is facing a hard-to-fathom four indictments. 

That being said, DeSantis’s efforts to straddle the two opposing camps within the GOP — between Trump loyalists and more moderate voters who would welcome a break from Trump — are backfiring. Trump supporters have criticized DeSantis’s perceived disloyalty, while more moderate Republicans have been turned off by the angry, grievance-filled style of politics DeSantis has tried to co-opt.  

DeSantis’s declining poll numbers are proof that his position is becoming increasingly untenable, and there are concerns among former donors who are frustrated with the governor’s lurch to the right on hot-button social issues such as abortion and guns. 

For their part, the second-tier candidates will be forced to run intensely combative races if they want to distinguish themselves. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has been the most active on this front, recently slamming both Trump and DeSantis during a town hall in Iowa. Haley called out DeSantis’s feud with Disney, accusing the Florida governor of being “hypocritical” for taking donations from the company, then suing it.  

Haley also criticized Trump for his attitude toward the attempted insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021. “He thinks it was a beautiful day. I think it was a terrible day. I’ll always stand by that,” she said.  

In that same vein, Pence assailed his former running mate as unfit for office, also focusing on the events of Jan. 6, 2021, foreshadowing a key pillar of his campaign. Pence laid into Trump in his campaign announcement, saying, “Jan. 6 was a tragic day in the life of our nation … President Trump’s reckless words endangered my family and everyone at the Capitol … anyone who asks someone else to put them over the Constitution should never be president again.” 

Christie, who has virtually no conventional path to the nomination, is likely to embrace his role as an everything-goes attack dog against Trump, which no Republican has done successfully. For Christie, his best chance to make a mark on the GOP primaries is to have a chance to debate Trump, where his bruising attack style may give him a chance to shine. 

The outliers are Tim Scott and Doug Burgum, who are taking less confrontational approaches in their campaigns.  

Scott, who has shied away from attacking Trump, has instead opted for a “Reaganesque” message of compassionate conservatism, unity and the need for the GOP to move past far-right populism. 

Burgum, who is effectively unknown nationally, declared his candidacy this week with a pro-business message built on traditional Republican policies of lower taxes, less regulation and supporting entrepreneurs. Unfortunately, while Burgum’s platform may have once appealed to Republican voters, there is little appetite for such policies in today’s GOP. 

Scott — the only Black Republican senator and a traditional conservative — would likely present Biden with a considerable challenge in a general election. Yet, Scott — like other candidates — will struggle in a Republican primary that is already dominated by two other candidates with much larger national profiles. 

It is possible that either Haley or Scott will surprise in South Carolina due to home-field advantage, or that a combination of Christie’s unique attack style and Pence’s values-based criticism will make dents in Trump’s perceived invincibility. 

Moreover, the federal charges Trump is now facing are more serious than what he faces in New York, and with additional indictments potentially coming in Trump’s other ongoing legal cases, it is possible that Trump may be forced to alter his positioning to the benefit of other candidates. 

That being said, each second-tier candidate makes it increasingly likely that, in 2024 — as in 2016 and 2020 — Donald Trump will once again be on the top of the GOP ticket for president of the United States of America. 

Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.”