The diploma divide has been extensively documented: Democrats lose, or win only narrowly, because noncollege voters of all races are moving right. Progressives often assume that attracting noncollege voters means pandering to racism. New research shows that this is false.
Racism is definitely part of the picture: racial resentment was highly predictive of voting for Trump in 2016. But that’s not why he won, a new study shows. He won because he also attracted a much larger group of voters with moderate levels of racial resentment. A prior study found that 2016, 19 percent of Trump voters polled as “anti-elites” with moderate views on race, immigration, gay marriage and the environment. If Democrats could peel off even a modest percentage of anti-elites, they could win handily in both presidential and congressional elections.
The conventional wisdom is that Democrats should focus on economics and avoid talking about cultural issues. The first half is right. A closer look at six Democrats who won in red states or districts in the 2022 midterms shows that each made blue-collar jobs a central and insistent focus. “Pro-jobs, pro-fish, pro-family, pro-choice,” said Mary Peltola, who unexpectedly won Alaska’s congressional seat, the first Democrat to do so in 50 years (besting Biden’s 2020 vote percentage by 20 points).
“For every small town or person that ever felt left behind, for every job that has ever been lost, for every factory that was ever closed, for every person that works hard, but never got ahead, I’m proud of what we ran on,” said John Fetterman after he flipped a GOP-held Senate seat in Pennsylvania, besting Biden by 4.9 points. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who won a House seat in Washington State (besting Biden by 4.8 points), championed unions, blue-collar jobs and apprenticeship programs.
Gabe Vasquez, who won in New Mexico, advocated a version of the American dream that included fair wages and affordable health care. The other three — Matt Cartwright (besting Biden by 6.8 points), Josh Shapiro (+13.6 points) and Gretchen Whitmer (+7.8 points) — all also centered blue-collar jobs.
But each red-to-blue Democrat not only stressed blue-collar jobs but also forged cultural connections with noncollege voters. Whitmer did this most economically in her gubernatorial race in Michigan, artfully framing issues to appeal to both college and noncollege voters.
She championed huge new investments by GM in electric vehicle plants (noncollege jobs plus climate change action), brought the first new auto plant into Detroit with hiring preference for its mostly Black local residents (noncollege jobs plus racial justice), adopted working-class talk traditions (“Fix the damn roads”) and argued that preserving abortion rights would help Michigan economically (noncollege jobs plus key progressive social issue). She was reelected, and Democrats regained both houses of the state legislature and are busy passing progressive laws. Proof of concept.
Here’s the red-to-blue toolkit for Dems:
First, tap into anger against capitalism run amok. “Here come the culture wars again,” said Cartwright. “And all this is a big distraction, folks, from the main play that’s going on. The big corporations that got huge tax cuts, many of them pay little, and some of them pay no taxes, even though they are making record profits.” This operationalizes the race-class narrative, which stresses that Democrats should call out how Republicans pit the have-nots against each other.
Second, adopt blue-collar talk traditions. John Fetterman derided his opponent when a video came out of Mehmet Oz complaining about the cost of “crudités.” Fetterman retorted “In PA, we call this a… veggie tray.” He kept up a steady drumbeat of one-upmanship and repartee, tapping patterns scholars document in mining and other blue-collar jobs. Studies of blue-collar Americans find that they highly value language that’s unvarnished and direct. Compare Whitmer’s “Fix the damn roads” with Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-Mass.) “I’ve got a plan for that.” I’m impressed, but many noncollege voters feel talked down to.
Third, fight Trump’s truculent “real man” masculinity with alternative masculinities. Fetterman embraced working-class masculinity through dress as well as speech: When Oz criticized him for not wearing a suit, Fetterman responded, “Wearing a suit wouldn’t make me any smarter.” Cartwright tapped a different brand of non-class-specific “decent man” masculinity when he criticized his opponent, asking who “goes around saying, ‘Latinos ruined my town.’ Who talks like that? I sure don’t.”
Fourth, honor small business and working-class people. In his inauguration speech, Shapiro extolled people like “Tim, who did backbreaking work on our roadways for decades.” Glusenkamp Perez, who owns an auto body shop with her husband, has called for “more tradespeople” in Congress. The aspiration to own a small business is a widespread blue-collar ideal — it’s the fantasy of an order-taker to be an order-giver. Democrats need to distinguish between the rapacious power of big business and the mom-and-pops many noncollege grads aspire to run — and that companies like Amazon bleed dry.
Fifth, tap blue-collar respect for hard work. Democrats have been reluctant to do so for fear of reinforcing racial stereotypes that Black people are lazy. Rejecting racist stereotypes is no reason to cede Americans’ deeply held respect for hard work to Republicans. Whereas college grads take pride in their jobs’ prestige, non-elites take pride in their work ethic. Red-to-blue Democrats know this: Vasquez attacked his opponent for “using her position to enrich her family rather than standing up for the hardworking people of New Mexico,” defending immigrants as people “who want to work hard … to reach their American dream.”
Don’t let Republicans own the American dream; instead, frame redistribution as universal programs that reward hard work — like Social Security and Medicare, which enjoy robust and abiding support.
The need for authenticity means that there’s no single formula. But if they use this toolkit in 2024, Democrats can follow Whitmer’s path to victory and a progressive future.
Joan C. Williams is a professor at University of California Law SF, the author of “White Working Class” and the founder of Bridging the Diploma Divide in American Politics.