DeSantis’s Disney battle is setting him up for failure in 2024

In January of 1968, Republicans were well positioned for a promising presidential election later that year due to a country divided by the Vietnam War, civil unrest, a deeply factionalized Democratic Party and a politically wounded president, Lyndon Johnson, who decided not to seek reelection.

The most promising candidate for Republicans was Michigan Gov. George Romney, former CEO of American Motors Corporation. Romney, a moderate with a solid record on civil rights and the economy, was popular, and had won three gubernatorial elections by increasingly large margins. After winning reelection by more than 20 percent in 1966, Romney’s support with Republican voters was at 39 percent — far more than former vice president and 1960 Republican nominee Richard Nixon.

But seemingly forgettable moments and passing comments can sometimes define and doom candidates.

During a visit to New Hampshire, Romney decided to roll a few balls while campaigning in a blowing alley, to demonstrate his bona fides as a man of the people. The governor then proceeded to throw gutter ball after gutter ball. Watching the spectacle, the assembled media grew increasingly uncomfortable, not understanding why Romney didn’t just stop. Far from painting the picture of doggedness and persistence, Romney’s stubbornness led to questions about his fitness as a leader. Many recalled his off-scripted response about Vietnam months earlier, when he said he had been “brainwashed” into supporting the war during a visit with the troops. Romney’s popularity plummeted, falling to a mere 7 percent by March, at which time he dropped out of the race.

We see shades of Romney today.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is waging a quixotic battle with Disney, one of the state’s top employers and a leading force in the state’s tourism industry. Disney publicly opposed DeSantis’s controversial and divisive “Don’t say gay” bill last year, which was met with the governor eliminating Disney’s unique self-governing body and replacing it with his hand-picked board. Disney responded with a discreet development deal the undercut the governor, who in turn escalated the fight by threatening to raise tolls and taxes and openly pondering building a jail adjacent to the theme park. The two are now battling each other in the courts.

Should DeSantis ultimately triumph over Disney, this Pyrrhic victory could very well be his bowling moment. Many are openly questioning why DeSantis would squander political capital and prioritize this fight with one of the state’s most important economic engines, which incidentally is poised to make a new $17 billion investment.

His stubbornness has also rekindled concern about his comments questioning American support for Ukraine. How would he handle bruising budget fights and foreign policy challenges? It doesn’t help that the 44-year-old governor is perceived as lacking retail politics skills and charisma, and is notoriously prickly with media other than reliably safe and conservative media outlets such as Fox News.

The 2024 presidential election is still 18 months away, but the race is already taking shape as a rematch of Joe Biden and Donald Trump. This despite the psychological 2020 hangover many Americans and, indeed, citizens of the world are still processing. Polls show a large percentage of Republicans, Democrats and independent voters simply do not want this rematch.

President Biden launched his reelection campaign last week, emphasizing the need to stay the course, not turn power back to “MAGA extremists.” Many Democratic insiders, including some members of the president’s inner circle, are deeply concerned about his decision. The thinking is that if Biden departed after one successful term, he would go down in history as a surprisingly triumphant leader who got Washington back on track after a period of unprecedented chaos. The central concern about Biden is his age — not his record, leadership style or even policy orientation.

The question for many Democrats, and presumably for the president himself, was what would happen if he didn’t run? Historically, the vice presidency diminishes those who hold the office. Fair or unfair, Kamala Harris is perceived as the weakest vice president since Dan Quayle. Had Biden not run, she would not automatically win the nomination; her general election prospects are highly questionable.

Rules and norms seemingly do not apply to Donald Trump. Whereas an indictment usually dooms candidates, Trump’s recent indictment in New York has resulted in a spike in his support among Republicans. The lord of Mar-A-Lago is likely to be indicted multiple times before the first primary votes are cast. While it remains unclear whether his support will deteriorate, early evidence suggests the opposite is true; each indictment plays into his predictable narrative of grievance and victimization.

Trump has successfully poked at DeSantis several times in recent weeks and amassed considerable support from elected officials, including 11 Florida Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives. Trump leads DeSantis by 32 percent among Republican voters, according to a recent Fox poll.

Policy has become almost an afterthought in presidential politics, which says a great deal about how today’s political environment and increasingly monolithic political parties have been transformed and now embrace performative success over solutions for Americans. We can only hope the election will eventually be decided in large part on substance, as a second Biden or Trump term will have huge consequences on domestic and global policy.

David Dumke is the executive director of the University of Central Florida Office of Global Perspectives & International Initiatives. The opinions expressed in this article are his own.