Why the smart money’s still on Biden

Forty-Seven percent of Democrats want someone other than Joe Biden running for president.

He’s boring. He’s old. He lacks passion. Who would bet on this guy? Better check with Las Vegas.

Biden is the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election, according to nonpartisan gamblers taking bets on the big political race.

The reason people are betting on Biden is that his likely opponent is Donald Trump.

Sixty-five percent of Americans recently told AP polling they cannot vote for Trump in 2024.

A boring Biden looks good when compared to the former president’s record of chaos — as in criminal investigations, an indictment, a rape charge and probes into whether he tried to fix the last election.

Trump’s record also features two impeachments, a tax cut for the rich that drove up the deficit, racist rhetoric and an attack on the capitol by his supporters.

Second, Biden’s age takes on a new look for gamblers at a time when voters prize skill and wisdom.

As President Reagan famously put it in the 1984 campaign, it would be unfair to exploit his “opponent’s youth and inexperience.”

Biden’s comeback to questions about whether he can get the job done at his age is more concise: “Watch me.”

He showed skill in getting prescription drug prices down. He passed a bipartisan infrastructure bill to fix the roads. He is standing tough as the global leader of an alliance against the invasion of Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

That’s why 78 percent of Democrats tell AP-NORC polling they approve of Biden’s work as president and 81 percent said they would probably or definitely support him if he is the party’s nominee.

Gamblers also can see an even bigger edge for Biden among voters who don’t approve of Biden’s or Trump’s performance as president.

“Biden tops Trump by 54 percent to 15 percent” among those discontented voters, according to a Wall Street Journal poll.

Here are more cards favoring Biden.

At this early point in the GOP primary contest, Republicans seem to want a culture war candidate more than a candidate who can beat Biden.

“Most Republicans and Republican-leaning independents would choose a candidate who agrees with their views on major issues – 59 percent – over one who has a strong chance to beat Biden – 41 percent,” according to a March CNN poll.

Among the big issues driving 84 percent of Republicans is the belief that the 2024 election was stolen from Trump, according to CNN’s poll.

That won’t help their candidate in a general election.

Banning abortion is another big culture war issue working against the GOP.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.) signed a ban on most abortions before six weeks of pregnancy. In red states, such as Iowa, GOP governments have stopped paying for abortions even for rape victims.

Trump nominated three of the six Supreme court justices who rewrote the law to end nearly half a century of constitutional protection for abortion. 

Voters can also watch as Republican majority legislatures refuse to accept federal dollars under Medicaid expansion to provide health care to their poor residents.

Voters revolted against their own GOP governors and passed ballot initiatives to force states like Missouri, Oklahoma and South Dakota to expand Medicaid. Ten GOP-led states, including Florida, don’t have an expansion program. 

Health care becomes salient to presidential politics when 15 million people nationwide are about to lose their health insurance coverage as Medicare’s emergency COVID-19 coverage expires. 

Missouri Republicans are on the verge of defunding all public libraries in their state over nonsense culture war boogeymen like “woke indoctrination” and “drag queen story hours.”

Republicans may be unable to see red state culture wars driving away general election voters. But gamblers can see the odds fading on a GOP win.

Odds also favor Biden because he has a strong legislative record.

Biden kept the economy out of recession after the pandemic. He passed bills to rebuild the nation’s decrepit infrastructure, lower insulin prices, allow for cheaper Canadian drug imports and boost U.S. manufacturing of semiconductors. 

All he needs now is a slogan.

President Reagan had “Morning in America.”

President Obama had “Hope and Change.” 

President Biden is leaning towards “Let’s Finish this Job.”

The best to be said about that slogan is it is a good fit with a slow and steady candidate, running as the best bet to defend against chaos.

If the president’s official campaign announcement video last week is any indication, Biden is happy to be the old, competent candidate. 

In the video, Biden portrayed himself as skilled in fighting “extremists” who are dictating what “health care decisions women can make, banning books and telling people who they can love, all while making it more difficult for you to be able to vote.”

He’s holding a good hand. That’s why the smart money is on Biden.

Juan Williams is an author, and a political analyst for Fox News Channel.