The Republican Party is working tirelessly to blow the 2024 election 

Nestled comfortably inside the extreme-right echo chamber created by Fox News and its fellow media travelers, the Republican Party is unable to detect the electoral storm gathering over the 2024 election. 

Most state and national GOP leaders have failed to comprehend that the fear and outrage tactics they have employed in recent years have fallen out of favor with a large slice of the electorate. A majority of voters have rediscovered the value of using the government to address real problems, as opposed to being distracted by the fabricated issues dredged up each year by right-wing candidates and media to drive a frightened and/or angry GOP base to the polls. 

A number of the factors that produced a historic win for Democratic candidates in the 2022 elections will result in another historic loss for Republican candidates in 2024. Democrats will win the presidency, take back the majority in the House, and may even retain control of the Senate. The Senate is tricky for Democrats next year because they must win at least 22 races to retain their majority in that body, but losing just one or two seats will still be a victory. Democrats will also make significant gains in statehouses across the country, except in the reddest of states. 

The factors that will drive those results are abortion extremism, a demand for gun safety, Trump-inspired internecine warfare in the GOP and massive voter turnout. Republican politicians may realize that a number of these factors are boding ill for them as the election approaches, but they are not in a position to do much about it. 

When the Trump-appointed Supreme Court majority struck down Roe v. Wade right before the 2022 election, a few commentators predicted the historic win for Democrats. Now, rather than recognizing the serious threat posed to them by an extremist position on abortion, most Republicans have doubled down on the issue. 

Red states, as well as some purple states, are passing all sorts of abortion restrictions. Trump-appointed, politically-driven judges are trying to limit the use of a medication that can prevent or terminate an unwanted pregnancy. The Supreme Court should, and probably will, dismiss the trumped-up case on technical legal grounds — Justice Samuel Alito temporarily froze the court’s order late Friday — but it will serve as a continuing reminder of the MAGA world’s desire to limit the reproductive freedom of women. As women die from lack of proper maternal care and doctors desert states with severe abortion restrictions, this issue will be a bigger millstone around Republican necks than it was in 2022. 

Another issue that is finally gathering steam as the election approaches is gun safety. By election time next year, it will be a potent issue against Republicans who believe the rights of gun owners trump the right of families to have safe streets and schools. Our kids are afraid to go to school and parents are fearful of sending them. Republicans act as if it is an either-or situation, which it isn’t. We can allow people to exercise reasonable, responsible gun rights while protecting the public from war weapons and irresponsible gun practices. If we can regulate the rights of people who drive on our streets, why should we not regulate the use of deadly firearms? This issue will catch many Republicans by surprise at the polls in 2024. 

It is clear that Donald Trump will present a major challenge for Republicans in the 2024 election. In spite of the numerous legal problems he will be plagued with in the coming months, his near-fanatic base will not desert him. He can’t win the general election, but he can, and quite probably will, keep any other Republican candidate from having a reasonable chance of doing so.  

The destructive dance between Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is instructive. DeSantis needs to differentiate himself from Trump without alienating the Trump base. It can’t happen because Trump won’t permit it. Every other GOP candidate faces the same problem. Some of Trump’s followers may wish that he would withdraw, but if he stays in the running he is likely to be the 2024 GOP candidate. That will ensure a win for Biden or any other Democrat who may end up in the running. 

Trump will again interfere in down-ticket races, supporting candidates who pledge fealty to his MAGA ideas. Republican candidates will be reluctant to stray from the anti-abortion, anti-democracy, pro-gun orthodoxy imposed by Trump and his media admirers. Rather than dealing with the many real problems facing the country and its constituent parts, we will be deluged with fake culture war issues, like critical race theory and LGBTQ issues, that are losing their luster with serious voters. He lost gettable congressional seats for the GOP last year and will do so again next year.  

These issues will produce a massive 2024 turnout of voters, intent on punishing the Grand Old Party for democratic backsliding, infringing on the rights of women and minorities, disregarding the rights of families to be safe in public places and pandering for votes on fabricated issues instead of attending to the hard work of resolving real problems facing Americans at every level of government. The Republican Party may see a wave coming but has painted itself in a MAGA corner from which it can’t escape in time. It will be swamped by a wave of suburbanites, women and young people who have had enough and won’t take it anymore. 

Jim Jones is a Vietnam combat veteran who served 8 years as Idaho Attorney General (1983-1991) and 12 years as a justice on the Idaho Supreme Court (2005-2017). He is a regular contributor to The Hill.