Five years ago, after attending a lunch with about a dozen North Carolina politicos, I pulled one aside and posed a question I believed had no clear answer: “Why aren’t Republicans willing to compromise these days? Instead of butting heads and getting nothing done, you could give up 30 percent or 40 percent of what you want, and both parties could claim victory. Isn’t that best for North Carolina?”
The man was a prominent conservative mouthpiece in the state. He was also a big believer in congenial, constructive dialogue. In fact, his presence at this lunch was due largely to his ability to “see both sides” and bring a calming balance to contentious debate.
But as his response demonstrated, his public persona masked the same naked ideological ambition of every other prominent state Republican.
“Because we keep winning,” he said.
North Carolina is one of many states with gerrymandered legislative districts. It’s more or less a 50-50 state, or perhaps 52-48. And yet, the GOP’s entrenched legislative power — made stronger by this week’s curious defection of longtime Democratic state representative Tricia Cotham — gives conservatives an outsized voice in a relatively moderate state.
I write “curious” because Cotham, who has since taken down her website (though the internet fortunately has archived it), is — or was, she claimed — a dyed-in-the-wool progressive in a Democratic district. She said she was a “champion” of the LGBTQ+ community and for raising the minimum wage to $15 per hour. A longtime teacher, she said she believes voting and health care are “rights,” not privileges.
Now Cotham is abandoning those principles to give Republicans a veto-proof supermajority in the State House. Combined with a veto-proof supermajority in the Senate, the GOP has rendered Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper effectively powerless.
Of course, this is a short-term play. Cotham has traded her political future for 20 months of glory. And Republicans hope that the legislation they can now railroad through will ensure they “keep winning” in 2024 and beyond.
And yet, at least North Carolina is a purple state, right? At least there are enough left-leaning and independent voters to keep Republicans in check. It worked in the 2016 and 2020 governor’s races. Surely voter backlash will level the playing field . . . eventually.
But that’s not the case in Tennessee, which in the last three decades has shifted from left-leaning to one of the nation’s most conservative states. In Tennessee, Republicans have unchecked supremacy, at the beginning of this week holding 76 percent of the State House seats and 82 percent of the State Senate seats. Bolstered by the conservative governor, secretary of state, and other statewide and congressional officeholders, Tennessee has become an impenetrable fortress for Republican thought and power.
The Tennessee GOP can go several steps beyond North Carolina Republicans, because there’s no such thing as “voter backlash” in a state that Donald Trump won by 23 points in 2020. Yes, there can be outrage, protests, and national condemnation. But Tennessee Republicans are insulated from others’ actionable judgment.
They can do whatever they want — because they will “keep winning” regardless.
Or at least, that’s what they believe, and that’s precisely what spurred them on Thursday to expel Black Democratic representatives Justin Jones and Justin Pearson. Gloria Johnson, one of the few Democratic women in the chamber and white, survived expulsion by one vote. All in the guise of a normal proceeding, Republican leaders called these Democrats’ actions “an insurrection.”
Because “insurrection” apparently plays better than “protesting the perpetual mass shooting of children.”
And “insurrection” certainly helps gloss over Republican Rep. William Lamberth recently telling students, “If there is a firearm out there that you’re comfortable being shot with, please show me which one it is.” Lamberth apparently loves guns so much, his campaign website features him holding a rifle that looks like it’s probably taller than he is.
And why would the expulsions end here?
Tennessee could kick out every Democrat in both chambers on specious causes, and they’d still likely dominate all state and most local elections. Don’t consider for a moment that they’re planning to pull back.
Unchecked power in the hands of the power hungry has no limits.
If North Carolina is a test case in the power of representative democracy to overcome extreme political gamesmanship, then Tennessee has become ground zero in America’s fight against authoritarianism.
Tennessee Republicans’ growing political extremism is a signal to all their colleagues in likeminded states: As long as you keep winning, you can do whatever the hell you want… for now.
B.J. Rudell is a longtime political strategist, former associate director for Duke University’s Center for Politics, and recent North Carolina Democratic Party operative. In a career encompassing stints on Capitol Hill, on presidential campaigns, in a newsroom, in classrooms, and for a consulting firm, he has authored three books and has shared political insights across all media platforms, including for CNN and Fox News.