Donald Trump loves the RINO — “Republican In Name Only” epithet. An all-purpose insult, RINO has become — under Trump — anyone he dislikes. Good news for Trump: Getting indicted allows him to wallow deeper in self-pity and victimhood. After all, that is his true passion. It’s certainly not winning. Trump left winning behind a long time ago.
Trump has turned into America’s biggest WINO – “Winner In Name Only.”
Make no mistake, the indictment for alleged illegal acts several years old by a local district attorney is more than a little dubious. Even elements of the Trump-hating left are questioning its propriety. Local district attorneys should be focused on crime and violence affecting their constituents, not engaged in publicity-seeking fishing expeditions. That said, yet again, Trump is in a vulnerable position because of his own undisciplined, selfish actions.
Trump’s claimed status as a “winner” is a mirage. Whether his own polling, endorsements, or accomplishments as president, Trump’s record is getting worse by the day. It’s not just losing re-election or losing every single federal court challenge (even before judges he appointed) or failing to legislate hardly any policy — the problem is that Trump is inflicting his ways on the Republican Party at large.
Trump is directly responsible for the Democrats’ current Senate majority. His constant whining and rage cost Republicans at least one of the two Georgia Senate seats in 2020. He followed that performance by sticking Republicans with a raft of awful Senate candidates in 2022 who lost winnable races in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
Particularly egregious were losses in Pennsylvania and Georgia. In Pennsylvania Trump pushed a politically inexperienced New Jersey TV doctor who managed to lose badly to the worst Democratic nominee in the cycle. Trump’s Georgia candidate, the barely intelligible Herschel Walker, was the only Republican to fail to win statewide in Georgia in 2022 — and the rest of the ticket won handily.
In the aftermath of the 2022 debacle, the Arizona and Michigan Republican Parties seem determined to concede all power to the Democrats and become angry, fringe Trump fan clubs.
More importantly, Trump’s “Winner In Name Only” approach included his Presidency. For all his bluster, Trump accomplished little as President. He had few legislative victories. Nothing on parents’ rights, nothing on fentanyl, nothing on infrastructure (despite lots of talk), no permanent reduction in regulations or end to the abuse of individual rights in America’s universities.
Trump relied primarily on executive orders, which allowed President Biden to sweep them away with a signature.
When the pandemic hit, Trump was all over the map, showing little leadership, careening from one pronouncement to another. The stimulus, though necessary to keep the economy afloat, was far in excess of what was required and planted the seeds for the current inflation. Trump promised to get out of Afghanistan, yet could not accomplish the task, putting part of the responsibility for Biden’s shambolic exit at Trump’s feet.
The only “winning” Trump has done is his own self-promotion and fundraising. He’s often all people talk about — at least people in politics and the news media — and he generates ratings and clicks more than practically anyone else. But think about this: He went from just another billionaire with a declining reality TV show to the most powerful position in the world — and then did practically nothing with it.
Not only has Trump failed to put conservative or populist policies into practice, the backlash against him and his failures at the ballot box allowed Biden and the Democrats to put forward the most aggressive liberal agenda since the 1960s. And, unlike Trump, the Democrats actually passed legislation putting their policies into law. They passed an infrastructure bill.
Digging a deeper hole for himself
Trump’s continued lack of discipline, playing to the more extreme elements of his base and his indiscriminate, seemingly unhinged attacks on Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis are making it much more difficult to mount a successful comeback in 2024.
Trump’s polling against Biden isn’t terrible; in fact, in some polls, Trump leads the ballot test.
In a recent YouGov poll, more Americans don’t want Biden to run (59 percent) than don’t want Trump to run (57 percent). That’s where we’re at. Even that number is deceptive, as Biden’s numbers are suppressed by lack of enthusiasm among Democrats: Just 45 percent of Democrats support a Biden run vs. 58 percent of Republicans backing a Trump run. But without serious Democratic primary opposition and the fact that Democratic voters detest Trump, Biden is likely to scoop up the vast majority of Democrats, no matter how ambivalent.
In the Grinnell poll, Biden’s approval is just 67 percent among liberals. But nobody unites liberals more than Trump. Liberals may kvetch about Biden as being too mainstream and conservative, but that disapproval is certain to evaporate if faced with Trump on the ballot.
Trump, on the other hand, has a significant problem with his base that is likely to get worse. Trump’s approval has settled below 80 percent, with 19 percent disapprove. While that might not sound so bad, it is terrible for Republicans. Republican voters tend to rally around their standard bearers in the low 90s. GOP presidents who fall into the upper 80s should be concerned. And falling to 80 percent or lower is disastrous. If the Mar-a-Lago raid is any indicator, any sympathy polling bump from the indictment probably will not last.
With more Democrats than Republicans, it is vital for GOP candidates to have a united front. Republicans saw this in the Georgia Senate election where Walker, in the biggest race and most associated with Trump, underperformed the entire GOP ticket. Even when faced with losing partisan control of the Senate, it is clear that a slice of Republican voters refused to vote for the unqualified Walker.
As Trump rampages away at DeSantis and others, the drama and exhaustion both seem likely to build. If he does win the nomination, it could well be a pyrrhic victory if even a small segment of Republican voters decide to pass.
In 2016, Trump survived the defection of the “Never-Trumpers” — who were really just a small band of loud, unhappy New York-Washington insiders. With Trump’s approval now falling within the GOP generally and with a substantial level of support for DeSantis, the potential number of disaffected Republicans is much higher for 2024.
Trump is running his usual strategy against his opponents — and it may well work for the nomination. But that strategy will make winning a general election much more difficult. With Trump looming over the midterms, the Democrats defied over 100 years of political history, inflation, and an unpopular president. If Biden and the Democrats could overcome that in 2022, they only need to avoid an economic meltdown to beat Trump again.
Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.