Handicapping presidential primary ‘madness’

Two of my passions are politics and college basketball. It’s a good exercise to view the 2024 presidential “madness” in the context of this year’s March madness.

If President Biden runs for reelection, all the primary action will be on the Republican side, so let’s divide the possibilities into brackets; the basketball brackets will be announced Sunday night.

The winner of each bracket goes to the Final Four, in politics the initial contests.

The first is the TRUMP bracket: A one-man show, the former president is running again, even more vengeful and vicious.

If, as I believe, he faces at least one indictment, the impact is unclear. For any conventional politician, it’d be curtains — but with Trump, it’s more likely to enrage and energize his base, at least in the short term.

Outside of that base, Trump’s support is eroding. There are questions about his health and stamina, and he’s not catching anybody by surprise. Still, he’d be a heavy favorite to make the GOP Final Four.

Next is the TRUMP-HEAVY bracket. These potential candidates are right-wingers who are almost as mean-spirted and bitterly divisive as the 45th president.

The top seed here is Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis, who’s already stealing some of Trump’s thunder. DeSantis is counting on his hard line on cultural issues — taking on gay and transgender rights, “woke” corporations, abortion rights, and educational “elites” — while tossing in a dash of racial dog whistles. This has resonated in Florida, where he was reelected in a landslide.

However, DeSantis ran twice against weak opponents and is about to face more scrutiny and tougher tests. The Trump camp — aided by the King of Slime, Roger Stone — will throw lots of mud; they’re already trying to paint DeSantis as a corrupt pervert. That’s what they do. DeSantis at some point has a hard decision: Does he ignore this or hit back? In 2016, Jeb Bush tried to ignore Trump, while Marco Rubio got down into the gutter with him. Both failed.

The next seed here is Trump’s former Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, with the top national security credentials. Despite losing 90 pounds, Pompeo is not an especially attractive retail or television candidate. Third-seed in this bracket would be Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who will run if Trump drops out or fades and who won’t be restrained by principle. In 2016, Trump suggested Cruz’s father was involved in the assassination of President Kennedy and that his wife was ugly. Cruz later became a congressional champion of Trump. The final seed is South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem; she has all the MAGA credentials, but … South Dakota?

The TRUMP LIGHT bracket, solid conservatives, supported most of Trump’s policies but want a more restrained, maybe even civil, leadership. The early leader here is former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who was Trump’s United Nations Ambassador. “She would be the front-runner,” the Bulwark’s Sarah Longwell observed, “in a Republican Party that no longer exists.” Economic nationalism, isolationism, election denialism, are the staples of the GOP today. (If Haley makes it to the semi-finals, will she stick to her unswerving support for Ukraine?)

The other seeds in this bracket would be Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, former Vice President Mike Pence, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. (Yeah, yeah — there are five in this bracket, but some basketball brackets have a play-in game; there’s probably not room for two South Carolinians.)

Pence will have to constantly defend or deflect his total loyalty to Trump until Jan. 6, 2021. Some conservative and fat cats love Scott, who is Black, feeling it shows they’re not bigots, but his main legislative achievement, opportunity zones intended to help low-income communities, has been a bust. If the two Southern governors run, there is more beltway chatter about Youngkin — but Kemp, who easily beat back a Trump-backed challenger last year, is a better dark horse.

Finally, there is the ANTI-TRUMP bracket, who equivocate less on Trump’s shortcomings. The top seed here is New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, focusing on more traditional economic conservatism. Smart insiders say that on a scale of one to ten, the likelihood of him running has risen to a six.

The second and third seeds are two former governors: Asa Hutchison of Arkansas and Chris Christie of New Jersey. Hutchison has impressive mainstream conservative credentials but may lack the toughness or meanness in this rumble. Christie doesn’t have that problem — but would have a hard time explaining why — and when — after the last election he went from a Trump loyalist to Trump critic. The final seed here is former Wyoming Congresswoman Liz Cheney. She is determined to do whatever it takes to stop Trump, whom she considers an existential threat. It’s not likely she’ll do this as a candidate.

My Final Four would be Trump, DeSantis, Kemp and Sununu.

A reminder: I did this same exercise over eight years ago for the 2016 race; in my brackets then, I forgot to include one aspirant: Donald J. Trump.

Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hosts Politics War Room with James Carville. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.