Aging presidents, cognitive acuity & reelection

In the last couple of weeks conversations with two groups of Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents — young 20-somethings or 80-year-olds, give or take a little — there’s an overwhelming consensus: Joe Biden shouldn’t run for reelection.

The geezers, like me, know we’ve lost a little off our fastball; the younger crowd wants generational change. Almost all these voters, with a few exceptions, would vote for the president if he runs, as they worry about a viable alternative.

This is an inopportune moment to reiterate the well-traveled issue of Biden’s age. In his surprise trip to Kiev last week, the president displayed great leadership, courage and stamina that would have been impressive for a much younger man.

Biden may be close to announcing for reelection, though there are stories — with anonymous sources — saying he may be reconsidering. With spectacular achievements over the past two years, a better-than-expected midterm election for Democrats, a strong economy with inflation subsiding, and masterful leadership on the Ukraine war — not to mention the crazy faction dominating the Republicans — the road to 2024 looks pretty smooth.

That’s a mirage.

For all these successes, President Biden’s approval ratings haven’t gotten much better. The political rationale for running again is that he beat Donald Trump once and is best suited to do it again. Yet whether it’s indictments (likely), health, or GOP “Trump fatigue,” I’ll wager that Trump won’t be the nominee.

What would a Biden race against a younger, more vigorous Republican — a 46-year-old Ron DeSantis or even a 60-year-old Mike Pompeo — look like? Such matchups could pose a problem for Joe Biden.

If Biden should bow out, the next concern is what to do about Vice President Kamala Harris? Her political stock has fallen, but would there be a backlash if she’s passed over? Don’t worry. If, under these circumstances, she runs and wins the major primaries, she’s better politically than many of us believe. If she loses, there can’t be complaints of unfairness.

While I think it’d be a mistake to turn to a member of Congress in this environment, there are Senate possibilities: New Jersey’s Cory Booker; Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, and Georgia’s Raphael Warnock. Better would be some of the party’s impressive governors like Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, California’s Gavin Newsom, or Roy Cooper of North Carolina, among others. Or there are a couple of administration figures and former mayors: Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg or infrastructure counselor Mitch Landrieu.

This is a deep bench.

Biden will be 82 if elected to a second term and 86 at the end of that term. Most experts counsel there is no definitive answer as to what lies ahead for someone of that age.

“The variability we see with cognition in particular has been observed in humans, monkeys and rats is that many older individuals perform as well as those who are younger,” notes Dr. Marilyn Albert, a professor of neurology and director of cognitive neuroscience at Johns Hopkins Medical School. “It is one of the most consistent and important observations in aging.”

The extraordinary trip to Ukraine was an exception to the usually carefully measured Biden schedule. That may be possible even during a 2024 presidential campaign.

The personal strains may be more challenging.

Biden will be under constant attack by House Republicans, with a special effort to go after his family, his son, Hunter, and brother, Jim. Hunter Biden, who has lived a troubled life, also is under investigation by the Justice Department for tax evasion and other charges.

The president probably is right when he says voters don’t care about these matters. But it may take an emotional toll on the family-centric president.

In 1984, running the Wall Street Journal’s Washington bureau, I assigned a piece exploring the age issue with President Ronald Reagan as he ran for reelection. He then was 73. The actuarial tables showed the average life expectancy for a man that age was a little less than ten years; today it’s more than 12 years. The life expectancy now for an 82-year-old is seven years.

Reagan easily won that election and served his full term. Five years later, he announced that he had Alzheimer’s. There still is a debate over whether he suffered any cognitive decline in his final White House years.

Biden’s recent physical was positive, giving no signs of substantive health problems, although — like his predecessors — there were no cognitive tests. All those younger and older Democrats cited earlier hope the president stays healthy, though they worry.

In a campaign — or in the White House — you can alter policies or change advisers. You can’t roll back age.

Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hosts Politics War Room with James Carville. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.