Five things to expect from the incoming House

In our personal lives, a new house usually is exciting. In our political lives, especially this year, a new House of Representatives dominated by MAGA-style conservatives is a cause for national concern.

Here are five things we can expect:

Leadership chaos

The chaos will start today, as the new Republican-controlled House selects a Speaker. It takes leadership to herd political cats into the disciplined force necessary to get things done for the American people.

The incoming House doesn’t have it. With House Republican infighting untamed, current House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) remains short of the votes he needs to become House Speaker.

To get them, he has reportedly floated a concession aimed at the right-wing Freedom Caucus’s demands that five members may call a vote to replace the Speaker. That Sword of Damocles hanging over his head would effectively strip him of authority to do anything other than what the most extremist members want.

And even that appears not to have done the trick, as nine members immediately sent a letter saying they want more before they’ll for him, with some signaling that whatever he concedes won’t be enough.

McCarthy’s top lieutenant, Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.) has waited quietly in the wings as the likely alternative if McCarthy’s bid fails. Meanwhile, on Dec. 30, Scalise conspicuously reminded his Republican colleagues of his commitment to banning abortion and other right-wing causes in a letter to his Republican colleagues — an implicit knock at McCarthy’s lack of principles.

One can only imagine the cracks in the foundation of trust within the GOP House leadership team.

What we know is that McCarthy, desperate to achieve the position denied to him in 2015 when Republicans passed him by in favor of then-Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), has made clear to his Freedom Caucus opponents that he will do almost anything to get their votes — reinforcing that he has no principles. The concessions are sure to alarm non-radical Republicans, including the 17 GOP members from competitive districts.

The leadership chaos is a harbinger of policy chaos to follow — including the likelihood of rolling government shutdowns and the real threat of default by failing to raise the debt ceiling sometime next summer. In 2013, when Tea Party radicals (egged on by McCarthy) pushed close to the abyss with the threat to default, then-Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) pulled it back. The threat caused a downgrade in the U.S.’s credit rating.

The odds that a McCarthy or Scalise would block the radicals now are slim to none.

Political lies

We’ve witnessed monumental deceit visited upon voters from newly elected Congressman George Santos (R-N.Y.).

But let’s face it. He’s a lag indicator: Trumpism’s central feature has long been a commitment to big lies and little ones, and it has taken over the party. Exhibit A: Trumpist Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has welcomed Santos with the statement, “Glad George is being honest.”

Another George — this one surnamed Orwell — is rolling over in his grave.

Greene’s tolerance for deceit is not unique. Although some Republicans, including the Republican Jewish Coalition, have condemned Santos, the silence from the GOP House leaders has been deafening.

The Republican contempt for basic ethical integrity is underscored by the new GOP House rules package which reportedly guts the independent Office of Congressional Ethics, ousting Democratic members and eviscerating its staff. 

Kabuki Theatre

We’ll soon be witnessing the 2023 version of Republicans’ 2012-2016 Benghazi saga — political theater designed both to bring down the Democrats’ next presidential candidate and to amplify grievances, including ones built on lies and exaggerations.

Expect hearings that call for prosecuting Anthony Fauci, the retired head of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases; for impeaching Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, Merrick Garland, and others; and for investigating the Jan. 6 House investigators — the new battle hymn of the Republicans. Attacks on the Pentagon for being too “woke” in rooting out extremists are also rumored. And, of course, Hunter Biden’s laptop, over and over. They are banking on the media treating the faux “hearings” as legitimate oversight.

An ‘undo everything’ Congress

The House majority’s time will accentuate the negative. They’ll devote no time to legislation needed to expand jobs for ordinary Americans, to ensure adequate health care, elder care and child care, or to deal with the climate crisis.

If anything, they’ll work to cut Social Security benefits, Medicare, reproductive rights and the taxes of their wealthy donors. And they will use the threat of shutdowns and default to try to achieve these ends.

Poison pills for democracy

Instead of building on the Jan. 6 Committee to protect democracy from the mob, House Republicans will uplift and laud the violent invaders of the Capitol in 2021 who sought to overturn our democracy — and will try to blame Nancy Pelosi for the riot.

They will treat the charged and convicted attackers as victims and will attack the jail conditions in which arrestees awaiting trial have been held. (Do not expect any mention of D.C. residents arrested for drug possession being held in the same conditions.)

The House majority also will try to restrict voting rights and to block further military aid to Ukraine, aid that both advances democracy in Europe and protects our national security. Ukrainian fighters have weakened the military of our Russian adversary, but a large swath of the House’s MAGA Republicans sound more favorable toward Russia and Putin than they do to Ukraine.

Among those unhappy with a leaderless, nihilist House is — of all people — Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). If House Republicans face a backlash, including from suburban voters appalled at their recklessness and extremism, the effects will be felt in 2024, including in Senate races where the GOP has a clear advantage to regain the majority.

But whether McConnell, now in the crosshairs of Donald Trump and some right-wing talk-show hosts, can curb these excesses is unlikely. So Republicans may face that backlash next year — but the country may have to weather a series of violent storms before then.

Norm Ornstein is an emeritus scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

Dennis Aftergut is a former federal prosecutor, currently of counsel to Lawyers Defending American Democracy.