Two more years of stalemate and polarization in Washington

If the ultimate measure of disappointment is the gap between expectations and outcomes, then the recently finalized midterm elections are for Democrats the greatest unanticipated victory and for Republicans the most devastating defeat since 1992, when “dark horse” candidate Bill Clinton ousted from the White House GOP President George H.W. Bush just one year after the latter had enjoyed a 91 percent approval rating after the U.S. triumph in the first Gulf War. For those who would rather measure only midterm elections, then GOP partisans would much prefer to cite their shocking 1994 victory in which their party gained control of both houses of Congress for the first time in 42 years.

Historical comparisons aside, today giddy Democrats are still crowing, and depressed Republicans still reeling, despite the fact that the actual balance of power between the two parties changed relatively little.

So, what has changed? In the Senate, though they gained but a single seat, Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s nominal defection notwithstanding, Democrats finally will control all committees without the single GOP vote they needed when the Senate was split 50-50. This situation, however, is counterbalanced by the GOP gaining a similar dominance over the mechanics of the House of Representatives, which will give Republicans the upper hand not just in controlling committees but also regarding the critically important “power of the purse” and subpoenas — which no doubt will be to propel investigations of everything from the August 2021 troop withdrawal from Afghanistan to the origin of COVID-19, to the operation of social media platforms to Hunter Biden’s laptop and foreign business affairs.

The truly grim prospect for Americans is not what changed but what didn’t change. The 2022 electoral standoff clearly indicates the country will continue to experience two more years of the same bleak landscape of stalemate and polarization that we have endured for the past two years. The certainty of this forecast was reinforced when President Biden was asked if he planned any post-election changes. His reply was blunt and unambiguous: “No.” He shared his firm belief that somehow the election was clear proof that his policies are working and supported by the country. Thus, with no sense of irony, Biden assured the American people — over two-thirds of whom believe the country is on “the wrong track” — that we would remain on that track for the rest of his Administration.

Oddly, the most dangerous prospect for the next 24 months is the one issue on which there is clear evidence of bipartisan support: the war in Ukraine. Here, in what increasingly seems like a bizarre rebirth of the George Bush “nation-building agenda,” the Biden administration is wholeheartedly committed to helping the Ukrainians achieve victory, “as long as it takes.” Cracks in support for this are beginning to multiply, however, in part because it appears the American people don’t believe what they are being told about this undeclared proxy war against Russia. A recent Washington Post article reports that, despite relentlessly upbeat media coverage of the war, the majority of Americans don’t believe Ukraine is winning and 47 percent think Washington should “push Kyiv to reach a peace settlement soon,” even if it involves territorial concessions to Russia.

The Post article also relates that Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in what amounts to an awkward dissent from administration optimism, told reporters last month that it was “unrealistic to think that Ukraine could recapture the 20 percent of its land occupied by Russia.” (That had dropped to about 17 percent as of November.)

So, buoyed by having done much better in his first midterm election than any of his Democratic predecessors since Franklin Roosevelt, President Biden is almost certain to seek re-election in 2024 — the elevation of South Carolina in the Democratic primary schedule being further proof, despite the fact that clear majorities of voters of every stripe don’t want Biden on the ballot. 

Though his approval rating is mired in the low 40s, and he is similarly “underwater” with many Americans on almost every major issue — the economy, the southern border crisis, the war on fossil fuels, and more — the president and the dominant progressive wing of his party remain devoted to their agenda and willing to essentially rule by executive order, while showing not the slightest inclination to alter course.

Thus, the American people are clearly in for a rocky two years.

William Moloney is a Senior Fellow in Conservative Thought at Colorado Christian University’s Centennial Institute who studied at Oxford and the University of London and received his doctorate from Harvard University. He is a former Colorado Commissioner of Education.