Republicans from all factions of the party are suggesting the party needs an assessment of what happened in the midterm elections. Was it leadership, resources, strategy, the candidates — or some combination — who were to blame for some unexpected losses to Democrats? When you take a step back and look at the big picture, what seems clear is that their strategists failed to effectively analyze, weigh and respond to changing opinions among voters.
Republican strategists emphasized inflation, crime and the southern border crisis as campaign drivers. They believed these issues would create a red wave that would lift the entire ticket to victory, but they failed to review readily available polling research that would have helped them uncover trendlines on issues being pushed by Democratic candidates.
“ALPHA issues” are those that have trended over a long period of time and have gained committed constituencies. Two such issues in 2022 were abortion and climate change. These issues have been on the political radar for decades. They have strong support among the base, as well as nongovernmental organizations, think tanks, grassroots groups and networks of influencers built around them. This means money, volunteers and an enhanced ability to generate ballots.
Gallup identified support for three abortion positions in 2022: Legal under certain circumstances at 50 percent; legal under any circumstances at 35 percent; and illegal under all circumstances at 13 percent. Trend lines show support for “legal under any circumstances” is at its highest level since these data were first released in 1975, and support for making abortion “illegal” is at its lowest level of support since 1995, when it stood at 12 percent. Pew Research adds, “Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are 42 percentage points more likely than Republicans and Republican-leaners to say abortion should be legal in all or most cases.” Brookings reported on Nov. 4, “The fear among many pro-choice voters, particularly women, is that a Republican-dominated Congress could use this ruling [Dobbs v. Jackson] as a premise to enact a nationwide abortion ban.”
Climate change is another “ALPHA issue” that Republicans missed — and here again Gallup provides valuable insight. With the exception of the Obama years, Americans repeatedly have valued environmental protection above economic growth since 1986. When asked about the “seriousness of global warming,” 78 percent believe it is generally underestimated or generally correct. Since 2000, again with the exception of the Obama years, most Americans believe the government is doing “too little” to protect the environment. “A majority of U.S. adults want the government to play a larger role in addressing climate change,” Pew Research reported, adding, “Seventy-nine percent of Americans say the priority for the country’s energy supply should be developing alternative sources of energy, such as wind and solar.”
Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy, the week before the midterms, wrote, “It may come down to a tried-and-true sports axiom. The hungriest team wins the game, and the Republicans seem to have the edge.” In retrospect, the better question was which party had more to fear from losing in 2022. The answer would have been Democrats, who have strongly held beliefs on abortion and climate.
Republicans arguably had winnable Senate seats in Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and maybe even in New Hampshire. They will reflexively blame weak candidates endorsed by Donald Trump, and that is a strong argument to be made. They will also acknowledge they were outmaneuvered tactically by Democrats who took full advantage of early voting in key states. It is unlikely they will blame poor issues management by their strategists in failing to fully appreciate the impact of “ALPHA issues” on competitive races and making adjustments.
In short, Republicans ran on voter concerns about inflation, crime and the border — and mostly ignored voters’ fears about government interference in abortion decisions and the threat of climate change. They failed to analyze data that were readily available and clearly showed trends that were not moving in their direction. In Pennsylvania, both Doug Mastriano, the GOP candidate for governor, and Mehmet Oz, who ran for U.S. Senate, were quickly defined as men who would outlaw abortion or stand aside and let state legislators do it for them. Neither responded well to this attack.
An axiom of issues management is that pursuing the obvious coming out of the gate can result in “conviction bias.” This can create a level of arrogance that can cause a strategist to ignore or seriously underestimate threats to their strategy. Conviction bias may lie at the core of the Republican Party’s failure in 2022. The challenge will be for the same strategists, who evidently wore blinders during critical months leading up to the election, to acknowledge their shortsightedness.
Dennis M. Powell is an issues and crisis management consultant at Massey Powell, which he founded in 1985, and the author of the upcoming book, “Leading from the Top: Presidential Lessons in Issues Management.”