Why the Georgia Senate runoff is still important

Democrats retained control of the Senate by winning races in the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire. In Georgia, Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock edged past Republican Herschel Walker 49.4 percent to 48.5 percent, but the race proceeded to a runoff because neither candidate reached 50 percent.

Unlike in the 2020 election cycle, this year’s Georgia runoff will not determine control of the Senate because Democrats have already secured 50 seats elsewhere; however, the race is still very important for both parties as they look ahead to 2024 and beyond.

One of the defining differences between the House and the Senate is that representatives are up for election every two years while senators are up for election every six. If one party does poorly in House elections one year, they can take solace knowing that every single House seat will be up for grabs again two years later. But if they do poorly in Senate elections one year, that makes the overall Senate math more difficult for them in subsequent years.

The Georgia Senate runoff is highly important for Democrats because of how difficult it may be for them to hold their Senate majority two years from now. As J. Miles Coleman of Sabato’s Crystal Ball noted, “The Georgia runoff is the first Senate race of 2024.”

If Warnock can win the Georgia runoff, Democrats will have gained a seat in this year’s Senate elections, bringing them up to 51 seats. This would give them more breathing room in the 2024 cycle when they have to defend several seats in heavily Republican states.

First, there’s West Virginia, which voted for Donald Trump by 39 points in 2020. Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) defeated Republican Patrick Morrisey by 3 points in 2018, but that was during a blue wave year. It’s easy to imagine that West Virginia could be a Republican pickup during a presidential year, when ticket-splitting may be lower and the national environment may not be so Democratic-leaning. Plus, recent polling has suggested that Manchin’s popularity with independents suffered after he helped pass the Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act.

Second, there’s Montana, which voted for Trump by 16 points in 2020. Democratic Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) defeated his Republican challengers by 4 points in 2012 and 2018, but several high-profile Republicans with statewide name recognition are already considering taking him on.

Third, there’s Ohio, which voted for Trump by 8 points in 2016. Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) won re-election in 2018 despite Ohio’s increasingly Republican lean, but there’s no guarantee that he can replicate that performance with a Republican presidential candidate driving turnout and partisan polarization from the top of the ticket. Plus, the GOP will be encouraged by Republican J.D. Vance’s victory in this year’s Senate race, despite facing a strong opponent in Democrat Tim Ryan.

While Democrats may benefit from incumbency in each of these three races, they are still very difficult seats to hold given the increasing nationalization of down-ballot races.

In 2016, every single Senate race was won by the party that carried the state at the presidential level. In 2020, all but one Senate race (Maine) was won by the party that won the state in the presidential election.

Given just how Republican West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio have been at the presidential level the past two cycles, it’s easy to imagine a scenario where Democrats lose some — or all — of these seats in 2024.

Beyond those three states, Democrats need to defend Senate seats in presidential battlegrounds like Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. On the flipside, Republicans don’t have many vulnerable seats to defend — their two most vulnerable seats are in Texas and Florida, both of which just re-elected Republican governors by double-digits.

Overall, the 2024 Senate map is pretty brutal for Democrats — they will undoubtedly be the party on defense.

If Warnock can win the Georgia runoff, that’ll give Democrats a better chance of maintaining their majority in two years. And if they can do that and take back the House, that would enable Biden to pass more of his legislative priorities should he be re-elected.

Ryan Matsumoto is a politics and elections analyst for Inside Elections, which provides nonpartisan analysis of campaigns for Senate, House, governor and president. Follow him on Twitter @ryanmatsumoto1.