How the Republican Party can rebrand and rebuild

The Republican Party vastly underperformed expectations in this year’s midterm elections; both infighting and introspection have ensued as a result. 

Despite a midterm environment that favored Republicans — given President Biden’s low approval rating and persistently high inflation — their party failed to make significant gains in the House and fell short of winning a Senate majority.  

Democrats will retain control of the Senate, possibly with an even larger majority than they currently enjoy if Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock wins his runoff election in Georgia. Republicans won a slim majority in the House, but by far fewer seats than is typical for an out-party during a president’s first term. 

As for who’s to blame, most establishment Republicans are pointing the finger at Donald Trump, and with good reason. Extreme Trump-backed candidates who lacked experience lost in states where a more traditional Republican would have likely been successful. In the swing states that Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020, only two out of the 15 Trump-endorsed candidates for U.S. Senate, governor and secretary of state won their respective races. 

If establishment Republicans were not already convinced to dump Trump based on his affronts to the Constitution, legal woes and embrace of election conspiracy theories, the former president has now proven that he cannot deliver on the only thing the rank-and-file tolerated him for: to win elections. Not only is he a deeply unpopular former president who lost reelection, but he has also now cost Republicans control of the Senate — twice. 

While many establishment members of the party have started turning on Trump, those on the far right are pointing the finger at other leaders like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). The task of reuniting the GOP is a daunting one for the next Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, (R-Calif.) whose job was only made more complicated by Trump’s official declaration last week that he intends to seek the presidency again in 2024. 

Nevertheless, the leaders of the Republican Party now have a mandate from voters to replace their fealty to Donald Trump with a fiscally conservative and socially moderate issues-oriented agenda that addresses the economy, abortion, crime and immigration, which were the top four issues of concern for the electorate this year. 

Such an agenda should involve restraining government spending to reduce the deficit and control inflation, crime reduction policies that are also sensitive to the historic mistreatment of Black Americans by the criminal justice system, and a middle-of-the-road immigration stance that calls for strengthening the border while also providing a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers.  

The Republican Party must also come together around a cohesive and less radical stance on abortion at the national level. This was one of the top issues that drove voters to back Democrats in swing states where abortion rights were on the ballot, such as Michigan. The 15-week limit that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) imposed is a viable national model for the GOP, as opposed to total or complete bans embraced by other red states. 

With this strategic shift to the center, Republicans will be able to win back some of the crucial independent vote. Bucking historical midterm trends, independents this year broke heavily for the Democratic candidates in key U.S. Senate races: Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) won independent voters by 30 points in Arizona, and Senator-elect John Fetterman won this group by 19 points in Pennsylvania, per exit polls. 

In addition to winning back independents, a fiscally responsible and socially moderate agenda can help Republicans make inroads with nonwhite voters. Cutting into Democrats’ margins with nonwhite voters is something Republicans must do in order to remain electorally viable, as this segment of the electorate has accounted for more than three-quarters of total U.S. electorate growth since 2000, per Gallup. 

Though not a monolith, one major nonwhite group, Hispanic voters, has trended more Republican over the last few elections. Republicans won 39 percent of the Hispanic vote this year, up 12 points from 2012. That being said, this is largely because these voters have grown dissatisfied with the increasingly left-leaning Democratic Party, not because they are enthusiastically embracing the GOP.  

Just as importantly, Republicans must begin working to make inroads with Black voters who, more than any other demographic group, disproportionately vote Democrat (86 percent of Black voters supported Democrats in House races this year).  

In addition to promoting moderate economic and criminal justice policies, Republicans’ outreach to Black voters should focus on helping these communities get ahead through remediation, not filling quotas. The GOP can advocate for policies that will yield tangible benefits in majority-Black communities, including increased funding for vocational training, school choice, tax breaks for small businesses and funding urban public safety measures. 

The Republican Party took a beating in this year’s midterm elections, to be sure. But with new leadership and a rebranded policy platform that marries fiscal conservativism with socially moderate positions, Republican leaders can set their party up for a more successful 2024. 

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”