“Our intention is to run again.” With these words, President Biden signaled his aim to seek a second term, and during the next 24 months he will make his case. Over the course of history, two reasons have compelled sitting presidents to run again: opportunity and crisis.
Ronald Reagan and Franklin D. Roosevelt provide good examples of each. In 1984, Reagan knew that additional opportunities awaited in a second term, especially in realizing his long-sought goal of reforming the tax code. And he got it done. The Tax Reform Act of 1986 lowered the top tax rate from 50 percent to 28 percent, and reduced corporate taxes from 50 percent to 35 percent. Another opportunity presented itself with the ascendancy of Mikhail Gorbachev in the Soviet Union, giving Reagan a once-in-a-lifetime chance to reduce the threat of a nuclear war between the world’s two superpowers.
Crises also compel presidents to remain in office. World War II caused Franklin Roosevelt to seek a third and fourth term. In 1941, Roosevelt asserted that “the democratic way of life” was being assailed abroad with World War II already having been underway for two years.
At home, Roosevelt warned of “those with sounding brass and a tinkling cymbal [who] preach the ‘ism’ of appeasement” that threatened our nation’s readiness. In his State of the Union Address that year, he declared, “I find it, unhappily, necessary to report that the future and the safety of our country and of our democracy are overwhelmingly involved in events far beyond our borders.” It was those events, and Americans’ concerns about them, that prompted Roosevelt to extend his tenure to an unprecedented 12 years.
There are good reasons why Joe Biden should not run again. If reelected, he would be 86 years old after his second term expired. Should he decline to run, Biden can leave office with a record of substantive accomplishments: The Inflation Reduction Act allows Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices and caps the cost of insulin for seniors at $35 per month; the Chips and Science Act brings the manufacturing of semiconductors back to the U.S.; the PACT Act provides much needed support for war-scarred veterans and their families; signing the first gun safety legislation in 30 years; passing the American Rescue Plan, which has produced the fastest job growth in U.S. history; approving a once-in-a-generation infrastructure law; and confirming the first African American woman to the Supreme Court.
These victories make Biden the most consequential president in domestic affairs since Lyndon B. Johnson. Abroad, Biden also has important achievements, particularly in rallying international support for Ukraine and expanding NATO.
In signaling his intention to seek a second term, Biden has outlined an ambitious agenda: codifying Roe v. Wade; eliminating AK-47s, the favored weapon of choice used in mass killings; capping insulin costs for all diabetes sufferers; making the child care tax credit permanent; protecting voting rights; establishing universal pre-K; and eliminating tuition at the nation’s community colleges.
Another term would give Biden more opportunities to appoint federal judges and, possibly, make another Supreme Court appointment. These potential appointments, passing even more life-changing legislation and signing more executive orders puts a Biden stamp on the federal government that will last decades.
But crisis is also compelling Biden to run again. Former President Trump’s complicity in the attack on the U.S. Capitol makes him a clear and present danger. Speaking to the events of Jan. 6, 2021, and the refusal of most Republicans to accept the results of the 2020 election, Biden asserts, “We have to confront those lies with truth. The future of our nation depends on it.”
Trump is ready to announce his candidacy for a second term, and should he succeed, he will be emboldened to dismantle the delicate constitutional structures established by the framers. Overseas, a second Trump term would also cause unprecedented disruption. At his first meeting with foreign leaders, Biden triumphantly proclaimed, “America is back,” only to hear, “For how long?” Biden reports that our jittery allies want to know: “Is the United States stable? Are we the same democracy we have always been?” His reelection would affirmatively answer those questions.
Today’s GOP is an insurgent party that claims to uphold the Constitution but actually threatens it. Parties only reform themselves when they lose. And it usually takes more than one defeat for them to reset their internal clocks. In the 1980s, Democrats lost three straight presidential elections before concluding they were the problem. The party cast its old New Deal nostrums aside to become “New Democrats” led by Bill Clinton and Al Gore.
Now it is the Republicans who must suffer more losses before they can rid themselves of Donald Trump and have a chance to remake their party. Until then, Trump will remain the dominant force, and any indictment (or indictments) will only energize his most passionate supporters.
Incumbent presidents bring powerful resources to their reelection campaigns. Today, Joe Biden is the only Democrat who has defeated Donald Trump. Beating him twice would commence a return to the traditional disagreements between the two parties and accomplish what Biden wants most: to heal the “soul of America.”
John Kenneth White is a professor of politics at The Catholic University of America. His latest book, co-authored with Matthew Kerbel, is titled “American Political Parties: Why They Formed, How They Function, and Where They’re Headed.”