Trump, GOP prefer settling scores to actually scoring

In the midst of all the drama surrounding the 2022 congressional midterms, one race symbolizes the costs of political fratricide, born from the vanity of an ex-president’s perceived infallibility.

Washington’s third congressional district was pretty safely in the red column heading into this cycle. Former President Donald Trump prevailed here by 4.2 percentage points in 2020.

And its representative, Jaime Herrera Beutler (R), is a popular six-term congresswoman first elected on the eve of her 33rd birthday in 2010, replacing retiring Democratic Rep. Brian Baird, who had beaten his Republican opponents by 20+ points in each of the previous four cycles.

Herrera Beutler rose to No. 52 in House GOP seniority this past year and was set to move up further in the next Congress. She’s also No. 5 in seniority among female House Republicans and played a pivotal role as a trusted conservative vote — but with the occasional independence of someone hailing from a solidly blue state.

As an Hispanic Republican woman, she symbolized the GOP’s efforts to broaden its appeal within a longstanding Democratic constituency.

But none of that mattered in the 2020 Republican primary. The only litmus test for her political survival was fealty to Trump. As one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach him for his actions during the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, Herrera Beutler went from rising star to persona non grata overnight — not unlike Reps. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), and seven others who chose country over MAGA.

As expected, Trump made sure Herrera Beutler’s sixth term would be her last. He endorsed primary challenger Joe Kent, who had moved to the district from Oregon only one year earlier. As an election conspiracy theorist who promised to relitigate Trump’s 2020 defeat, and having admitted to discussing collaborating on the campaign with a renowned white supremacist, Kent was perhaps the worst possible fit for WA-03.

But Republicans anticipated a “red wave” in November — because that’s what often happens for the out-of-power party in the first midterm of a new presidential administration.

The GOP lost 42 House seats in 2018 — the first and only midterm during Trump’s presidency. Prior to that, Democrats lost 63 House seats in the first term of former President Barack Obama’s tenure (2010). Two presidencies earlier, Democrats lost 54 House seats only two years into former President Bill Clinton’s first term (1994).

And so on.

Sometimes, arrogance leads to victory. Other times, it leads to miscalculations. No doubt, congressional Republicans and the Republican National Committee severely miscalculated in WA-03, relinquishing their authority — their autonomy — to Trump, for whom settling scores supersedes actually scoring.

Because as much as Trump talks up winning, his identity is tied not to victory, but to his enemies’ downfall. And that’s a big reason why his party keeps losing in places they should be winning. Trump still calls the shots, and his party must oblige, while bracing for the inevitable collateral damage.

It didn’t matter that Herrera Beutler’s 2020 vote total was five percentage points higher than Trump’s in WA-03. It didn’t matter that she won fairly comfortably in 2018 when so many of her colleagues lost in the last “blue wave” election.

All that mattered — yes, all that mattered — to the Republican Party in WA-03 was extinguishing her political career. For Trump. For revenge. For MAGA purity.

As a result, the GOP lost WA-03. Democratic candidate Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez will be sworn in early next year.

How potentially devastating for Republicans. They’ve been planning to impeach President Biden, investigate the Jan. 6 Committee, and find oh-so-many other ways to avenge Democrats’ treatment of Trump.

But with neither party yet assured of 218 House seats in the next Congress, how ironic it would be if Gluesenkamp Pérez’s election — if Republicans’ eagerness to destroy one of their own — proves to be the difference.

B.J. Rudell is a longtime political strategist, former associate director for Duke University’s Center for Politics, and recent North Carolina Democratic Party operative. In a career encompassing stints on Capitol Hill, on presidential campaigns, in a newsroom, in classrooms, and for a consulting firm, he has authored three books and has shared political insights across all media platforms, including for CNN and Fox News.