Almost every Democrat I spoke to this fall hopes — privately — that Joe Biden won’t run for reelection. It’s not ideological or personal; it’s age … doubts he’s up to countering the relentless and often vicious attacks that are coming from Trump-dominated Republicans.
As of today, the president thinks he’s going to run, say people who’ve spoken to him. Last week, the Washington Post reported that Biden and top aides are planning a 2024 reelection strategy.
The case starts with the specter of Donald Trump in 2024. Biden believes he is the best, maybe the only, candidate who can stop what most Democrats consider an existential threat.
The decision also affects governing, his advocates say. If he decides not to run, he’d be a lame duck with little political leverage the next two years.
Moreover, it’s about his legacy.
The only presidents who are rated great by historians have been reelected, receiving validation after their first term.
None of these arguments are persuasive.
Joe Biden has had a very impressive first two years — a stimulus bill, major infrastructure and manufacturing bills, modest gun reform, significant action on climate, holding down drug prices and leading a remarkably successful Western alliance against the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This is his peak; he’s not going to be another Franklin D. Roosevelt.
And there are highly rated one-term presidents. My former colleague, Robert W. Merry, wrote a biography of one, James Polk. There is talk that another might be George H.W. Bush, who waged a short successful war, managed the end of the Cold War, signed the Americans for Disabilities Act and accepted a tax/deficit measure that played a role in the prosperity of the 1990s.
If, as expected, Republicans win the House on Tuesday and perhaps the Senate, the president won’t have much to lever. The House Republican caucus will have little interest in any compromises, short of Biden capitulating. Maybe they can cut a deal — maybe — on China-bashing.
If the Democrats barely control the Senate, the White House can get appointments, particularly judges, but with a GOP House, almost nothing legislatively. Win or lose Tuesday, Senate Democrats face an even tougher map in 2024 — when they hold 23 of the 33 seats up for reelection.
More than stalemate, this crop of Republicans wants to destroy Biden. They may try to impeach him — they’ll make up a rationale — and they will certainly try to tie him to the misdeeds of his troubled son, Hunter, with multiple investigations. This will be personally painful for the president.
Looking ahead, the age issue is inescapable. Biden will turn 80 in two weeks; in any second term, he’d be 86 in the final months.
First, let’s dispense with the charge that he’s cognitively impaired. Imagine what Fox News and GOP congressional crazies would have done if, like Trump, Biden had said that the Continental Army in 1775 (a year off) took control of the airports; or if he had praised the ongoing and promising contributions of Black leader Frederick Douglass, who had died 122 years earlier; or if he’d said he wanted loyal generals like Adolph Hitler’s…
Imagine.
Biden aways has been prone to gaffes. There’s just more, naturally, as he ages. It’s going to get worse.
The “only he can beat Trump” argument also doesn’t cut it. State polls this season show Trump doing as well — in some cases better — in matchups.
While dominating his party, Trump’s future isn’t clear. There’s a good chance he’ll be indicted. For what? Take your pick: illegally keeping classified documents at Mar-a-Lago and apparently lying about it; the Fulton County probe into his trying to overturn Georgia’s legitimate 2020 presidential election; any number of corporate offenses in New York; or inciting the Jan. 6 insurrection.
What would be the political impact? Perhaps he’s like his friend, Israel’s Bibi Netanyahu, the former prime minister indicted three years ago who stretched out his trial and was reelected last week. Or maybe Republicans would grow spine — and a conscience — and discard him.
Either way, Democrats would be better with a fresher candidate in 2024, good enough to navigate the nominating process. Ideally, this would not be a member of Congress or from the party’s left wing. If Biden doesn’t run, Vice President Kamala Harris won’t clear the field and someone would have to beat her.
There are attractive possibilities, governors like Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, if she wins impressively this week; Roy Cooper of North Carolina; California’s Gavin Newsom, or even a former Governor, Deval Patrick of Massachusetts.
There are couple of administration figures, not Washington insiders, who come to mind: Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who finished third in the 2020 nominating battle; or the infrastructure coordinator and former mayor of New Orleans, Mitch Landrieu — you have to go back to Bill Clinton to find a southern white who relates as well to Black voters.
For now, the president, his wife and political team should go slow after what may be a shellacking this week, avoiding any commitment that may be hard to undo.
And he should not let the decision be driven by Donald Trump.
Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hosts Politics War Room with James Carville. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.