Even New York is being consumed by a red wave

Virtually every poll in New York is showing a definite tightening of the governor’s race with Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) closing Gov. Kathy Hochul’s 17-point lead from just over a month ago to 4  to 6 points now, with one poll actually showing Zeldin pulling ahead. This Republican surge is being replicated around the state. 

A particular example of voters moving away from Democrats is the 17th District just north of New York City where veteran congressman and chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Sean Patrick Maloney is now in a “toss-up” race with one-term State Assemblyman Mike Lawler. Similarly, internal polls on Long Island are showing GOP congressional candidates such as former NYPD detective Anthony D’Esposito pulling ahead in the race to fill the open seat vacated by Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.)

If this red wave is occurring in deepest blue New York, this should portend massive GOP victories across the nation on Election Day. Based on what I’ve been observing in New York — and what appears to be the case nationwide — this move toward Republicans is only partially attributable to the usual gains by the out-of-power party in off-year elections and general voter disenchantment with President Biden. 

The main reason, certainly in the Zeldin-Hochul race where Democrats have a more than 2 million voter registration advantage over Republicans, is the Democrats’ refusal to address the predominant issues of crime and overplaying their hand by focusing everything on abortion and the specter of Donald Trump. 

Democratic ads in the New York governor’s race and congressional campaigns repeat endlessly how New York women are at risk from Republicans. Apart from the reality that the Dobbs decision overruling Roe v. Wade in no way affects New York law, which allows abortion up to 24 weeks for any reason and beyond 24 weeks if there is a health risk, the Democrats’ reliance on a fictitious fear about abortion reflects their refusal to address the real fear voters have of out of control crime. 

In July, major crimes in New York City were up more than 30 percent over last year, which was itself a high crime year. There have been more killings on New York City subways since 2019 than in the 13 years previous. Zeldin has pledged to remove Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for refusing to enforce certain criminal laws while Hochul says Bragg needs more time. Zeldin has been going throughout the state assailing Democrats for their failed policies of bail reform, defunding the police and tying the cops’ hands by restricting proactive tactics such as “stop, question and frisk” which had dramatically reduced violent crime during the Giuliani-Bloomberg years. 

Zeldin personally experienced the real fear New Yorkers have about crime just several weeks ago when a shooting involving youths outside of his family home in a middle-income community left his teenage daughters fearing for their lives as bullets struck less than 30 feet from the kitchen where they were doing homework. 

Democrats ignored crime as an issue until the recent poll results caused them to have a flurry of law and order events including a “crime summit” and safe subway news conferences. This I believe is ​too little too late. 

The Democrats‘ failure to see beyond their progressive silos and address the life-threatening issues faced by everyday New Yorkers, combined with Lee Zeldin’s aggressive law-and-order campaign, is heading against all odds toward the election of New York’s first Republican governor in two decades. The people are speaking through the polls.

Peter King was the U.S. representative of New York’s 2nd and 3rd congressional districts for 28 years, including serving as chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security. Follow him on Twitter @RepPeteKing.