How the impending red wave could become a tsunami

The Republican Party’s midterm prospects have markedly improved over the last several weeks. But will 2022 be a red wave election year on par with GOP victories in 1994 and 2010?

The warning signs are clearly flashing for the Democratic Party. Recent polling finds that support for Republicans — both generically and in individual races — has increased substantially amid heightened national concerns about the economy and crime, two issues that the GOP leads on. Meanwhile, protecting abortion rights, the crux of the Democratic agenda has become a much less salient issue.   

Based on current trends, Republicans will likely gain between 30 to 35 House seats, and come away with a one or two-seat advantage in the Senate. This outcome would flip both chambers of Congress to GOP control, but wouldn’t necessarily rise to 1994 or 2010 levels, when Democrats lost 53 and 63 House seats, respectively.

In order for the GOP to see a net gain of 50 House seats, the party would need to win every single one of the 37 races rated as a “toss-up” by RealClearPolitics, in addition to the 225 where they are favored. Under this scenario, Republicans would come away with a 262-seat majority, for a net gain of 50 seats.

At this point, there is no indication that Republicans will sweep all 37 toss-up House races. That being said, several trends — Republicans’ markedly improving generic ballot position and recent GOP gains in swing-state Senate races, as well as in Democratic strongholds — are suggestive of a red wave. 

Indeed, given how considerably the national environment has shifted in favor of the GOP over these last couple of weeks, the party is likely on track to win a large share of those toss-up House contests. 

Republicans’ lead in the generic congressional vote has widened by 2-points in just two weeks — from roughly 0.5-points on Oct. 12 to 2.5-points on Oct. 28, per RealClearPolitics’ average. A number of individual polls, including Emerson’s latest survey among likely voters, show an even stronger Republican advantage of 5-points. 

Likely voter polls — the most predictive of actual election results — are even more favorable for Republicans than polls of registered voters or simply all adults. This is suggestive of two potential trends: first, that the GOP will outperform expectations on Election Day, and second, that Republicans will enjoy a sizable turnout advantage.

An important note: Republicans only need to win the popular vote by 0.6 points in order to win a House majority, according to FiveThirtyEight’s model. Per their projection, if Republicans win the popular vote by 2.5-points — their current generic vote lead — the party could win up to 245 House seats, a net gain of 33 seats. 

Furthermore, though Democrats were once heavy favorites to keep their Senate majority, recent polling in key races suggests that Republicans are now on the cusp of winning the upper chamber.

RealClearPolitics projects that Republicans will pick up three Senate seats, two more than the GOP needs to secure the majority. In other words, Democrats wouldn’t gain any seats — even open seats currently represented by Republicans, including Pennsylvania and North Carolina — and Democratic incumbents would lose in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada.

While Senate races are generally more individualized and less tied to national trends compared to House races, the recent tightening of several contests — despite the relative weaknesses of GOP candidates — is indicative of how seismically the overall political landscape has shifted in Republicans’ favor. 

Georgia’s Senate race is the clearest example of this. Despite recent revelations that GOP candidate Herschel Walker fathered multiple “undisclosed” children and reportedly paid for past girlfriends’ abortions (allegations he denies) — on top of the fact that Walker already espouses extremist views on abortion, gay rights, COVID-19, and evolution — the latest poll shows him leading incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock by two points. RealClearPolitics also predicts that Walker will ultimately win the seat following a runoff election. 

Admittedly, Warnock’s own personal vulnerabilities, as well as his decision to not run an entirely anti-Walker campaign — while Walker has almost exclusively been running a nationalized anti-Biden effort — could be an explaining factor.  

Though, the narrowing of this race has also coincided with Democratic declines in other pivotal Senate races, which is suggestive of a broader pro-GOP tide, and potentially of an impending red wave election. In Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada — seats that are either open or held by Democrats — the Republican, despite their weaknesses as a mainstream candidate, now either leads or trails by just a few points. 

To be sure, it is common for the incumbent party to lose races in swing states and toss-up districts in a midterm election year.  

However, Democrats are now also at risk of losing seats in deep-blue strongholds — including New York, Rhode Island and Oregon — that haven’t been won by a Republican in decades, which is in and of itself predictive of a red wave. 

The latest Quinnipiac poll finds New York Gov. Kathy Hochul leading Republican Lee Zeldin by just 4-points with likely voters, who widely prioritize the economy and crime above other issues. While Hochul has focused mainly on Zeldin’s anti-abortion positions and ties to Donald Trump, these latest numbers have triggered a course correction, and her campaign is now aggressively touting her pro-growth economic policies and plans to improve public safety.   

Republican House candidates have also made gains in the Democratic bastion of Rhode Island, a state that hasn’t had a Republican congressman in three decades, as well as in the governor’s race in Oregon, which hasn’t been won by a Republican since 1982.

At this point, it seems likely that Republicans will win a disproportionate share of toss-up contests in the House, will flip the Senate, and could even make gains in Democratic territory — three predictions that, when taken together, do signal an impending red wave election.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”

Editor’s note: This piece was updated on Oct. 31 at 4:28 p.m. to correct the names of states with seats that are open or held by Democrats.