‘Neither’ is not an option in Pennsylvania Senate race

How about a U.S. Senate race that nobody wins? Pennsylvania is a test.

Of course, either Democrat John Fetterman or Republican Mehmet Oz will emerge victorious Nov. 8. It will, in either case, however, be due to the severe shortcomings of the other guy.

This was on display at their debate last week. The faltering performance of Lt. Gov. Fetterman, showing perceptible effects of the stroke he suffered five months ago, overshadowed the slippery duplicity of Oz, the former TV doctor and now the Republican candidate.

There were constant charges and counter charges over who’s the biggest liar. All that was missing was a charge that an opponent’s mother wore combat boots.

This is a race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, one of the few races that will decide which party controls the Senate.

Fetterman had his stroke days before decisively winning the May primary. That problem was compounded by a lack of transparency. He still refuses to release a full report on his medical condition.

Like many stroke victims he has trouble with auditory processing and word retrievals. This is not the same as cognitive decline, which people who’ve been with him say does not appear to be the case with Fetterman.

But it has undercut his persona: a six-foot-eight man with a goatee who campaigns in shorts and a hoodie, a genuine populist. He was mayor of a small western Pennsylvania town before winning on a ticket with Gov. Tom Wolfe four years ago.

Fetterman’s once sizable lead has been chipped away both by his condition and relentless attacks, some false or exaggerated, on being soft on crime. On the state pardons board some of his votes, which were only recommendations, were more lenient or permissive than Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who is heading to a big win in the governor’s race.

If Republicans didn’t have such a flawed candidate, they would be running away with the race.

Mehmet Oz was a successful surgeon who found gold as a television doctor.

He peddled numerous weight-loss cures including a fertility drug, HCG. The Mayo Clinic found HCG has “not been proven to work” and could have dangerous side effects: “If weight loss is your goal there are safer ways to lose weight.” During the peak of the pandemic, Oz repeatedly claimed malaria drug hydroxychloroquine was effective in combatting COVID-19, which studies showed is false.

He once warned that women carrying cell phones in their bras could cause cancer. Some years ago, the British Medical Journal studied 80 of Oz’s recommendations and found fewer than half were supported by evidence.

Now he needs a map in Pennsylvania. He was a New Jersey resident, where he has multiple homes (as well a mansion in Florida). As his campaign kicked off, he bought a home in suburban Philadelphia, but hasn’t moved in.

He does vote: in 2020 in New Jersey and 2018 in Turkey — where he has dual citizenship.

Democrats, like Republicans, believe if they had another candidate, such as the primary runner-up, Congressman Conor Lamb, they would have this race sewed up.

One of the X factors in this contest is the gubernatorial race in which Shapiro appears headed to a double-digit win over State Sen. Doug Mastriano, a Christian nationalist, Trump supporting 2020 election denier who has trafficked with antisemites and racists.

Shapiro might provide coattails for Fetterman, although straight-ticket voting is no longer possible in the commonwealth.

Democratic strategist James Carville once described Pennsylvania as Philadelphia in the East, Pittsburgh in the West, with everything between Paoli and Penn Hills as Alabama without Blacks. Fetterman is unlikely to generate a big Black vote in Philadephia, and Oz won’t produce a Trump-like turnout in the state’s “Alabama.”

The biggest voting bloc is the four Philadelphia suburbs — Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware and Chester counties, former Republican strongholds that have turned blue. Republicans think crime and inflation will enable Oz to make inroads there.

Democrats seized on Oz’s debate comment that he’d leave abortion rights to “women, doctors and local political leaders,” with Team Fetterman charging the GOP candidate would leave it up to the likes of Mastriano. These suburbs are decidedly pro-choice.

“It’s all going to come down to those suburbs,” ventures Democratic Rep. Brendan Boyle, a Philadelphia congressman.

There will be more recriminations than usual from the losing side. Republicans will likely blame Trump, whose support enabled Oz to barely win his primary. Democrats will be furious that Fetterman didn’t drop out knowing his medical condition.

If Fetterman wins, it’s unclear whether his health will improve sufficiently to be an effective Senator. If Oz wins, he’ll still be a snake oil salesman.

Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hosts Politics War Room with James Carville. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.