Down to the nitty-gritty for control of the Senate

The midterm elections can be seen through the prism of a football game: For the first half, the Republicans opened up a big lead. Then in the third quarter — from the Supreme Court’s anti-abortion decision to Labor Day — the Democrats closed the gap.

Since then, their offense stalled, the Republicans kicked the political equivalent of a field goal to open a small advantage.

Today, a month out from the election, the odds are the GOP picking up 10 to 20 House seats, with an even shot at winning the Senate.

There remain some overarching themes that could affect the dynamics in the closing weeks.

Both sides prefer a president to be in the limelight: The Republicans want it to be Joe Biden; the Democrats prefer it be Donald Trump.

The supposed improvement in Biden’s standing after the Democrats scored some big legislative wins this summer has been exaggerated. Talking to Democratic strategists in competitive races, they’d like a relatively low presidential political profile in October. There is little demand for Biden on the campaign trail.

And while some Republican candidates believe the defeated former president can gin up their base — he has been in North Carolina, Ohio and Nevada recently — it’s equally true that Trump gins up the Democrats and detracts from the focus on Biden.

As has been the case for months, it’s conditions that favor Republicans, versus candidates, where Democrats have an advantage.

The economy is the top concern of most voters; while the jobs market is exceptionally strong, the public focus is more on the punishing inflation. In the summer, Democrats got a break when high gas prices started falling; however, pump prices are rising again — and with the Russians and Saudis cutting supplies, it’s not going to get any better. (So much for President Biden’s diplomatic overture to the thuggish Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Sultan.)

If Democrats do better than the historical experiences for the party in power in midterm elections, it’s a testament to their candidates. In Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona, the Democratic Senate candidates have at least an even chance, given the inferior quality of their opponents. If Republicans had nominated a more mainstream conservative in these races they’d be in better shape. This is the case too in a handful of House races in battleground districts in Michigan and Ohio. (Conversely, there are a couple instances — Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — where the runner-up in the Democratic primaries would have been a stronger general election candidate.)

There is an abortion versus crime contest. The Supreme Court gave Democrats a huge boost when the conservative Republican justices overturned Roe v Wade and abortion rights for women. In several special elections and a referendum in Kansas, the pro-choice side prevailed.

This fall a number of previously staunch anti-abortion Republican candidates are squirming and shading. Arizona Republican candidate Blake Masters had supported a constitutional amendment to ban all abortions. Now he only wants to prohibit late-term procedures. In the primary, Zach Nunn, an Iowa Republican, wanted to prohibit abortions “with no exceptions.” Now he says he’d make exceptions in cases of rape, incest, fetal abnormalities and to save the life of the mother.

Democrats, like Nevada’s incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, running a close race against Republican Adam Laxalt, are relentless on the subject. “If I ran into Catherine Cortez Masto in the street and said ‘Boy are the Las Vegas Raiders terrible,'” Nevada’s top political analyst Jon Ralston told me, “she’ll say ‘Do you know what Adam Laxalt’s position is on abortion?”

Republicans are countering the attacking Democrats by raising the crime issue. This is resonating in some key races, including the Wisconsin and Pennsylvania Senate contests. There are some false charges — none of these candidates wants to defund the police — as well as some racial overtones. Republicans have accused Florida Democratic candidate Val Demings of being soft on crime. She was the police chief in Orlando.

Two of the most respected election analysis sources, the Cook Report and Nathan Gonzales’ Inside Elections, both see an up-for-grabs Senate outlook with a handful of toss-up races. The GOP has an advantage in the battle for the House. Of the roughly two dozen toss-up races, Democrats have to win about three quarters of them to retain the majority.

Charlie Cook, who founded the Cook Report and has been an insightful political analyst for decades, warns against assuming the toss-up races will split evenly. “Over the last 12 elections, an average of 77 percent of Senate races rated in the toss-up column going into Election day broke in the same direction.”

Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hosts Politics War Room with James Carville. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.