Republicans ought to be doing better than they are

First midterms are terrible for presidents. Absent a national security crisis, the president’s party loses and often badly. With high inflation and low approvals, President Biden and the Democrats should be headed for a major defeat. Yet, Republicans, with an unhelpful assist from Donald Trump, are doing everything they can to sink their own chances.

The midterm results will turn on whether the big issues outweigh the smaller issues, bad ­candidates and Trump tomfoolery. Republicans should get to at least 230 seats in the House and a majority in the Senate, with an upper bound of 245 and 54, respectively.

And the GOP should be headed toward the upper end of the expectations spectrum. In spite of a recent improvement, Biden’s approval is still well under water. His RealClearPolitics average is under water by 10 points. Most other metrics are similarly awful. In the recent YouGov poll, 62 percent consider the country on the “wrong track,” including 66 percent of independents. Morning Consult registers a 71 percent “wrong track” number (81 percent of independents). In its earlier tracking poll, Biden’s approval on the economy was 5 points worse than his overall approval.

The economy and inflation dominate voters’ concerns. The NewsNation poll has inflation as the top priority of 45 percent of respondents and 65 percent “very concerned.” Similar results can be seen in YouGov and Morning Consult polling. YouGov has a combined 35 percent citing inflation and the economy as the top concern, 25 points ahead of the next issue, health care. Morning Consult has 42 percent citing “economic issues,” far ahead of 14 percent citing “women’s issues.”

This issue landscape is toxic for Democrats. CNN’s Harry Enten notes that the Republican polling advantage on these top issues is at “near-historic” highs. A September Gallup poll asked respondents an open-ended question on their top issue (in other words, no list or prompting) with 38 percent citing problems connected with economic conditions (only 4 percent cited abortion). Republicans had an 11-point lead on addressing their issue, regardless of what issue was cited.

An historic rout ought to be in the works.

Republican stumbling and bumbling

While the political and issue environment are highly favorable for Republicans, it seems the party is doing little to improve its chances. Poor quality candidates, Trump and the Dobbs decision are dragging on the Republican ticket.

Part of the issue is lack of experience. Running for office seems simple, but it definitely is not. Sticking out is Herschel Walker. Inarticulate, ham-handed and out of his depth, the 1982 Heisman winner is doing his best impression of Earnest Byner. Georgia Republicans would be better replacing him with a lottery. Walker ought to be well ahead of Sen. Raphael Warnock, but the RealClearPolitics average has him down nearly 4 points.

Similarly, Mehmet Oz (R) in Pennsylvania has been struggling against John Fetterman (D), one of the weakest of all the Democratic candidates. A talk-show host from New Jersey was always going to have problems in a nativist state like Pennsylvania, but add to that Oz’s inexplicable post-primary vacation, and he fell far behind. Recently the race has tightened (maybe); the Oz campaign is pounding Fetterman with crime ads. Other inexperienced candidates like J.D. Vance in Ohio and Blake Masters in Arizona are also underperforming. Contrast that with Adam Laxalt, former Nevada attorney general and member of a family with long experience in politics, who is leading incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto.

Unsurprisingly, the weak GOP candidates were hand-picked by Trump. In addition to pushing forward candidates based on sycophancy and celebrity rather than electability, Trump’s determination to hog the stage is dragging down the Republicans. Trump has a worse approval rating than Biden, logging a deficit of 41 percent approve to 57 percent disapprove (Morning Consult). YouGov has Trump at 40 percent approve vs. 53 percent disapprove. In both polls, Trump has a worse deficit than Biden or the much-maligned Kamala Harris.

Unpopular ex-presidents are not a problem as long as they go away. But Trump cannot leave the spotlight, even when it would help his candidates. Trump can’t even resist insulting his endorsed allies.

Abortion is not helping either. The Dobbs decision continues to be a net negative. According to YouGov, abortion is a “very important” issue to Democrats at 63 percent, but just 34 percent for Republicans. In issue importance, it has risen to the second-most important issue at 14 percent, while just 4 percent of Republicans cite it as most important. And foolish political moves like Lindsey Graham proposing federal legislation does not help. For the GOP, the less said about the issue, the better.

Big issues likely to win out

In the end, all the Republican efforts at self-sabotage are more likely than not to just limit their gains. Trump is less popular than the unpopular Biden, but he’s not president. Biden being in the White House makes his unfavorability much more of a problem. And Trump’s legal troubles may end up having a detrimental effect on Democratic turnout. The more it looks like Trump is headed for an indictment, the less dangerous he seems.

Abortion is helping the Democrats, but that enthusiasm may simply be with people who are already going to vote. Motivating 18-29 year-olds, who are more pro-choice than the overall public, should help Democrats, but YouGov has 18-29s as the least enthusiastic age group at 27 percent “more enthusiastic” for the mid-terms as opposed to over 65s, at 53 percent. And over 65s cite inflation as their top issue (26 percent) by a 16-point margin over any other issue — a bigger gap than any other age group.

It seems more likely that poor candidate quality will be the biggest problem for the GOP. Herschel Walker could still win — the national issues are so overwhelming — but his incompetence as a candidate may be too abysmal to overcome. The rest of the fumbling rookies the GOP has nominated are having their struggles but seem to have found a bit of a footing, and their polling is improving.

Predicting final results is still perilous with so many races so close — but the GOP not only has an advantage on the issue front, the party may well be in better shape than the public polling indicates.

The party out of power tends to pick up the lion’s share of the undecideds.

In addition, the state-level polling in 2020 was heavily biased toward the Democrats. Claims that issues around polling accuracy have been addressed are hardly re-assuring. Supposedly the polling industry “fixed” their problems after whiffing in 2016, but 2020 was only slightly better at the presidential level and much worse at the state level.

When RealClearPolitics adjusts by state for polling error, it projects a GOP Senate majority with 52 seats. Alternately, using a blanket adjustment of 2-points for the undecided vote and just 3-points on polling error, Republicans get to 53, with even the fumbling Walker.

In politics, big issues win over small issues. Unfortunately for the media, small issues and gossip are easier to write and obsess about. It all adds up to the very real possibility of a Republican rout and another Election Day humiliation for the mainstream media and the pollsters.

Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.