As summer began, it was unthinkable that Democrats in the midterm elections could keep control of the House of Representatives; as summer ends this week, it’s thinkable.
It’s still very likely that Republicans will win more than the net of five seats necessary for the majority. They would be intent on making Joe Biden’s life miserable for the next two years.
Yet Democrats today may have more current tailwinds than historic headwinds. Six reputable non-partisan congressional preference polls this month — NPR/PBS/Marist, Wall Street Journal, Economist/YouGov, Fox News, Harvard-Harris and the New York Times-Siena — all show Democrats leading; the average is more than three points.
This may be a political Prague spring. GOP voters may come home by November, and some polls again may be undercounting low propensity Donald Trump-loving voters. The betting markets still see a Republican House next year.
The buoyant optimism of Republicans peaked three months ago. After an initial analysis that redistricting was a partisan wash, Ohio Republicans, despite a court order, were able to keep their deeply gerrymandered map, while the equally gerrymandered Democratic-drawn map in New York was thrown out. These two outcomes may have gained five GOP seats.
But most everything since has cut against the Republicans: foremost, the Supreme Court’s decision to end abortion protections, which has energized Democratic candidates and voters; Trump has been dominating the news, which Democrats believe helps them; gas prices are coming down a bit, and there have been some legislative achievements.
National tides will affect competitive house races, as will the quality of candidates and local politics.
There is no typical contest, but I’ve selected several races in five states — three in the usual Midwest battleground, plus Pennsylvania and California — that crystallize the Democrats’ possibilities and the daunting challenge. These include both their own seats they must hold and prospects for pickups.
Pennsylvania: In the Keystone state, Republicans are targeting two Democratic incumbents: Matt Cartwright and Susan Wild in the swing Northeast part of the state; the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman’s PVI index — the partisan voting index that reflects how each district performs at the presidential level compared to the country as a whole — shows Republicans have a small edge in these districts. There also is an open seat in Western Pennsylvania rated a tossup.
The onus is on Democrats to win these three seats. The life raft may be the top of the ticket, which features especially weak Republican candidates for governor and U.S. Senate.
Michigan: With an abortion referendum on the ballot, Democratic hopes have soared, perhaps enough to rescue an endangered incumbent, Dan Kildee, in his Flint-based district. Democrats got a break and should win a Grand Rapids seat after a Trump right-winger defeated a more moderate GOP incumbent in the primary.
It will take a “blue wave” in the Wolverine state, however, to win another seat in the lower peninsula, where Republican John James, who lost two close Senate, races, is the stronger candidate in a district with a PVI of plus-3 Republican. But his anti-abortion stance could make this a close contest.
Ohio: Republicans may have miscalculated in redistricting when they targeted Democrat Marcy Kaptur; her Toledo-based district now has a Republican partisan advantage, but the GOP then nominated P.J. Majewski, who attended the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol and peddles QAnon conspiracy theories.
Conversely, they didn’t protect Republican Cincinnati Congressman Steve Chabot — the new district leans Democratic — and Democrats are convinced they’ll win this seat.
Tougher will be the open seat in northern Ohio. Most of this district has been represented by Tim Ryan, a Democrat who’s running a very competitive Senate race; the redrawn district has a Republican edge. Democrats need to win all three of these Ohio seats.
Iowa: This is a tough nut for Democrats to crack in a state that has moved Republican red. Democrats are trying to knock off two freshman Republicans and hold onto their only member of the delegation. All three districts have a GOP PVI advantage.
Moreover, the Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds and the 89-year-old seven-term Sen. Chuck Grassley are favored at the top of the ticket.
The glimmer of hope is Republican efforts to push through a “heartbeat” bill that would ban abortions after six weeks. The always reliable Anne Selzer’s Des Moines Register poll shows Iowans — by 54 percent to 38 percent — oppose this measure. Democrats have to win at least one, maybe two, of these seats.
California: Democrats enjoyed a banner year in 2018 that Republicans reversed two years later. Democrats have to win back three of these seats, represented by Republicans Michelle Steel in Orange County and further north, David Valadao and Mike Garcia. Valadao is one of only two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump still politically alive.
Joe Biden won these districts in 2020. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is expected to win easily, and Democrats have an abortion rights referendum on the ballot to bring out more voters. All three of the GOP House targets are anti-abortion. Democrat Bill Carrick, an eminence grise of California politics, is optimistic about these races and ventures there are a couple other “sleepers” if there’s a blue wave.
Overall, if Democrats win, say, 80 percent of the races in these five states, they have a shot at holding the House.
That’s a very tall order, but not unthinkable.
Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hosts Politics War Room with James Carville. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.