How do Americans feel about a third party?

The announcement of the new centrist Forward Party — created by former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang, former Republican New Jersey governor Christine Todd Whitman and former Florida Republican congressman David Jolly — has prompted some journalists to ask whether the time is ripe for a third party. So have attempts among some establishment Republicans to encourage non-Trumpian Republican candidates to compete in elections. Adding fuel to these discussions, recent polls seem to show substantial support for a third party or third-party candidates.  

For example, a July 2022 Harvard-Harris poll found that 58 percent of Americans said they would consider voting for a moderate independent candidate for president if the 2024 match was between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. A YouGov survey conducted around the same time (July-August) found slightly more Americans saying a third party is necessary (39 percent) than those who say the Democratic and Republican parties are sufficient to represent Americans (30 percent … 31 percent are unsure). 

Almost half of Americans (46 percent) say they would consider voting for a third-party candidate versus 22 percent who say they would not (32 percent were unsure). 

And a 2021 Gallup poll made headlines with 62 percent of Americans saying the Republican and Democratic parties do such a poor job representing the American people that a third party is needed, the highest percentage yet recorded in Gallup surveys. 

What kind of third party?  

Given the poll numbers, it might seem that a third party would have great potential for 2024. Yet, as Lee Drutman, William Galston and Tod Lindberg pointed out in 2018, “third party enthusiasts don’t agree on what that third party should be.” Republicans who support a third-party entrant tend to want the new party to move to the right of the current GOP rather than to the center, while those who are Democrats divide between wanting a party that is more moderate or more liberal. This reflects the underlying ideological composition of the established parties.

Chicago Council Surveys show that Republicans are fairly homogenous in their identification as conservative (77 percent vs. 23 percent moderate in 2022). While Democrats have become more liberal over time, their supporters are more of a mix between ideological moderates (58 percent) and liberals (42 percent).   

Forward’s slogan is “Not Left. Not Right. FORWARD” — to appeal to middle-of-the-road Americans. But the so-called “moderate” voters are not all of one mind, either. A portion of the moderates will disagree with other moderates. According to William Galston, “if the United States had a parliamentary system, we would have five distinct blocs of voter — roughly speaking, a progressive Sanders/AOC party, a center-left Biden party, a centrist/business-oriented Bloomberg party, a traditional-conservative Pence party, and a conservative populist Trump Party. Voters who give priority to climate change might organize a sixth ‘Green’ party, as they have in Germany and elsewhere.” 

Who are these third-party fans?  

In general, across the polls, Democrats and independents are more likely than Republicans to support a third party. Moderates and Liberals are more inclined than Conservatives, and college graduates are more likely than those with less education. 

The YouGov poll found that interest in a third party is more popular among those who are focused on social rather than economic issues. Bottom line: a third party like Forward — with a focus on the moderate middle — could potentially bleed voters away from Democratic more than Republican candidates.  

In the near term, Forward is unlikely to make much of a splash. 

There’s the structural disadvantage it has in terms of fundraising and resources compared to the established parties. Secondly, in a New Yorker interview, Yang himself said that he and his crew aspire to getting Democrats and Republicans to support the Forward party principles, not to leave their registered party and run on the Forward Party ticket. Those principles include, among other things, ranked-choice voting and open primaries in order to weaken extreme partisanship and to help the American political system become “restored and rejuvenated” (essential reforms to become a multiparty system). But Drutman, et al, point out that the U.S. public neither supports nor sees these reforms as necessary.  

Forward so far has only principles and hasn’t yet taken a stand on policies. 

Moreover, Forward is banking its appeal as a party that wants to do politics without conflict: “we stand for doing, not dividing.” But dividing is exactly how the most successful third parties have succeeded in the past. They criticized and pulled voters away from the two established parties.

In the words of Jamelle Bouie, successful third parties activated “a narrow slice of the public over a specific set of issues. They further polarized the electorate, changed the political landscape and forced the established parties to reckon with their influence.” Examples include the Free Soil Party that forced an antislavery agenda on the two-party system and became the nucleus of the Republican Party; Teddy Roosevelt’s Progressive Party, that championed reforms that were eventually adopted on the eight-hour workday and conditions of child labor; and the Populist Party of the 1890s that pushed economic reforms to create a more equitable society to the heart of political debate.  

The U.S. political system drastically needs new energy, and a third party is a great idea. But at least right now, it doesn’t seem like Forward is setting itself up to be a consequential disruptor.

Dina Smeltz is a senior fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.