J.D. Vance’s GOP primary victory in Ohio says little about Trump’s endorsement power

In 1796, when America’s first president chose not to seek a third term, his celebrated Farewell Address spoke to the potential corrosion of factional parties in a nascent democracy: “The common and continual mischiefs of the spirit of party are sufficient to make it the interest and duty of a wise people to discourage and restrain it.”

On Tuesday, we saw toxic factionalism on display in Ohio’s Republican U.S. Senate primary. Trump backed J.D. Vance, while the powerful Republican economic group, the Club for Growth, backed rival Josh Mandel. When the Club for Growth continued to attack Vance on Mandel’s behalf, Trump reportedly had his assistant ­­send the Club’s president a text that said, “Go f*^% yourself.”

Vance only decided to enter politics in mid-2021. Back in 2016, he had called Trump an “idiot” — so Vance opportunistically groveled into Trump’s good graces in search of his endorsement. Vance began publicly subscribing to Trump’s “Big Lie,” telling Ohio voters “a lot of us don’t trust the results of the 2020 election.”

For those concerned that Trump got Vance the primary win, there is no cause for despair about November, but rather a reason to organize. That’s because Vance won only a third of the vote in the primary. Matt Dolan, the Republican candidate who distanced from Trump and blamed his “lack of leadership” for the Jan. 6 Capitol siege won nearly a quarter of the vote.

In those facts and others lie hope for the November election of a more moderate Senator, Democrat Tim Ryan. Unlike Vance, Ryan won a resounding majority of votes in Tuesday’s Democratic primary despite having two opponents. More on Ryan in a moment.

First, take note that outside of Vance’s win, Trump’s endorsements and non-endorsements are not generally proving to be decisive. For example, Trump declined to endorse centrist Ohio Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, and on Tuesday, DeWine won massively over the closest of his three opponents. Presumably, Trump withheld his favor because DeWine is more centrist and has acknowledged publicly that Joe Biden is president.

For similar reasons, in neighboring Indiana’s May 3 Republican primary, Trump did not endorse victorious incumbent Sen. Todd Young, who passionately supported certifying Joe Biden’s election in a videoed encounter with pro-Trump protestors in January 2020. Again, Young rolled to his primary win with no effect from Trump’s lack of support.

Notably, Trump’s endorsement of former Georgia Sen. David Perdue in the May 24 primary race against incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp appears to be failing spectacularly. Polls show that Kemp will likely run away with a large outright majority of the vote despite Trump’s relentless attacks for not helping him overturn Georgia’s 2020 election.

Further, a similar fate for Trump’s gubernatorial candidates in Nebraska and Idaho may occur on May 10 and May 17. In Nebraska, Trump has endorsed candidate Charles W. Herbster. Eight women have accused Herbster of groping them; he denies the allegations.

In Idaho, Trump’s endorsed candidate, Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin, appears to be faring poorly against incumbent Gov. Brad Little. McGeachin gained notoriety by seizing the helm when Little was out of the state and, in his absence, banning mask mandates. Gov. Little rescinded her order as soon as he returned.

McGeachin’s flagging prospects with Trump’s endorsement bring us back to the general election in Ohio.

Like McGeachin, J.D. Vance will be running with that endorsement against a far more centrist candidate, Democrat Tim Ryan, who has represented the state’s 13th Congressional district for 19 years. Ryan has campaigned on bringing “revitalized manufacturing in the state, clean energy jobs, and rebuilding the middle class.”

Those middle-of-the-road policy positions mirror the ones that helped Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown win re-election in 2018. Brown won 53 percent to 47 percent against Trump’s endorsed candidate — even though Trump had won Ohio by 8 percent in both 2016 and 2020.

Brown’s success in an Ohio Senate race bodes well for Ryan’s election in November to the state’s other Senate seat. J.D. Vance’s primary win aside, the influence of a Trump endorsement seems to be shrinking, and it may well prove less useful in Ohio’s general election than in Tuesday’s primary.

That would be a positive sign for Americans who seek to “discourage and restrain” what Washington called the “common and continual mischiefs of the spirit of party” that lead so easily to extremism.

Dennis Aftergut is a former federal prosecutor, currently of counsel to Lawyers Defending American Democracy.