A.B. Stoddard: Who will lead the GOP?

Perhaps Dr. Ben Carson is prescient and the 2016 election won’t even happen because our nation will soon devolve into anarchy brought on by the threat from the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), our national debt and the fact that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has “over 300 bills sitting on his desk” and is “thereby thwarting the will of the people.”

Even if you’re not as seemingly overwhelmed as Carson, it’s easy to conclude we’re in chaos. Weeks of bombing in Iraq have not set back ISIS’s territorial gains, there’s little hope for a true moderate opposition to take on ISIS in Syria, and both Syrian President Bashar Assad and the regime in Iran are benefiting from our new military campaign.  Add to that the fact that Ebola has come to America, and we have the perfect makings for an assassination attempt, as the Secret Service is now regularly exposing the president of the United States to possible attempts on his life.

{mosads}Yet Carson’s musings, as well as his second-place straw poll finish at the Values Voter Summit last weekend among conservatives who represent a crucial component of the GOP primary voting base, begs the question: Do Republicans even have one strong contender for the presidency in 2016? 

Just weeks from now, the 2014 midterm elections will be behind us, and the next presidential campaign will begin in earnest. Aspirants will have to start jockeying for money and national name recognition in a contest that now begins far too soon, and has been jump-started even earlier this time because the Democrats primary contest is assumed to be all but decided.

At this point, the GOP field lacks promising heavyweights and is packed with divisive prospects who cannot unite the party or who cannot be taken seriously in these worse-than-serious times. After six years of Barack Obama, many big GOP donors won’t risk a first-term senator with little experience, like Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Ted Cruz (R-Texas) or Rand Paul (R-Ky.). Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker could lose a close reelection battle next month. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) is more likely to head the House Ways and Means Committee than to run for president. Texas Gov. Rick Perry is still damaged by his failed run in 2012. Donors still worry there will be more “Bridge-gate” revelations about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum do not appear able to build broad enough coalitions of support within the party. Should former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush run, he will have problems with social conservatives because of his embrace of Common Core education standards. Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence haven’t gotten much traction so far.

The GOP could have a great night on Nov. 4. But then the party soon must choose someone to clean up the mess it says Obama has made of things. Republicans must find someone who not only can take on Hillary Clinton and raise a billion dollars, but who can actually convince Americans he or she is fit to lead the world against the growing terrorist threat and stabilize an increasingly volatile Middle East, where borders are disappearing, genocide and religious persecution are the norm, and Iran is on track to go nuclear. It must also be someone who can rebuild trust in a government that has failed across the board, from the Department of Veterans Affairs to the IRS to the Health and Human Services Department to the State Department to the Department of Homeland Security, in a prolonged economic downturn in which Americans are more dependent than ever on a broke and broken government.  

And the longer chaos and anarchy reign in a GOP primary, the more Clinton will look like the grown-up in 2016.

Stoddard is an associate editor of The Hill.