National security priorities for American allies in a second Trump administration

At the recent NATO summit, alliance representatives discussed the world’s most pressing security threats. Questions about the likelihood of another Democratic administration convinced global leaders to prepare for the possibility of a second Trump term. It is therefore worth asking not just what another Trump administration will do diplomatically but also which military assets it should prioritize to achieve those ends. 

Trump’s return to office would likely see a realignment in America’s national security priorities away from Russia and its war against Ukraine and toward China. The GOP has a vocal group of Russia doves. Trump’s vice presidential pick, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, has claimed that Ukraine diverts resources from Taiwan and away from confronting China. President Trump himself called Russian President Vladimir Putin “smart” for invading Ukraine in view of Biden’s evident weakness and promised to scale back aid if Kyiv does not negotiate with Moscow.  

In the light of these statements, U.S. allies must reevaluate their plans to defend Europe and how to secure the technology needed to deter the Russian threat. America is likely to remain involved in European security by providing a nuclear umbrella, strategic airlift, and space capacities, yet many states on the continent do not have a self-sustaining military-industrial complex. For the foreseeable future, Europe will continue to rely on Washington for several vital weapons systems. 

Trump has emphasized the threat from China throughout his political career, and this has intensified as Russia and China have expanded their military cooperation during the war in Ukraine. Beijing supplies Russia with dual-use technologies, negating Western sanctions intended to deprive Moscow of additional weapons. This makes Chinese advancements in military technology alarming not only in supporting a belligerent Russia but also for any future conflict with the U.S. 

Beijing (and Teheran) are providing drones and drone components to Moscow. Their proliferation, ranging from swarms of small drones to large unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), made its mark in Ukraine and ensured that drones will be an integral component of future wars.

A priority for militaries across the globe is to establish a ‘loyal wingman’ program’, which allows unmanned aircraft controlled by AI and equipped with air-to-ground and air-to-air weapons, electronic warfare and sensors to coordinate with a crewed jet. China’s sixth generation of aircraft will have such capabilities, making it imperative for the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Australia and Europe to respond to such developments.  

Broader Chinese investments in drone swarm technology, even if not everything is shared with Moscow, pose dangers for several European militaries that may not be able to afford rapid procurement upgrades. Worse, European attempts at creating a drone killing system have thus far fallen flat, with only the German Flakpanzer Gepard from the 1970s delivering results on the battlefield.

For the U.S., the F-35 fighter jet lacks the capacity to contend with the rapidly changing paradigm of aerial warfare, making the development of the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) and other cutting-edge programs critical to the West’s ability to confront adversaries on the battlefield. Europeans are also developing their sixth generation fighters, but the British-led Tempest is only scheduled to be deployed in 2035 and the French-German Future Combat Air System in 2040.  

Though concerns about cost have prompted the U.S. Air Force to consider updating F-35s rather than committing to NGAD, this only allows more time for adversaries to develop their own capabilities. Washington spends money on the unreliable F-35 program that has limited options to coordinate with unmanned craft even while Europe will become increasingly reliant on America’s NGAD platform.

This platform includes an entire “system of systems” guaranteeing air superiority. NGAD will use drones and AI to coordinate with ground-based systems to dominate the airspace and counter drone swarms. It will be powered by the next generation “adaptive cycle” engines, XA100 made by GE Aerospace or XA101 by Pratt and Whitney. 

While NGAD represents the future of conflict, it has an uncertain future in Washington. The U.S. Air Force chief of staff has not committed to fielding NGAD due to budget constraints, and Pentagon officials say that “difficult choices” loom ahead. However, it is not only the U.S. that needs the NGAD program, but also its European allies, as the threat from Russia will remain regardless of when the war in Ukraine ends.  

Since a Trump administration would likely shift American resources toward China, European states need more proactive procurement strategies. In the event that Washington becomes less involved in European affairs, it will be vitally necessary for European powers to reap the benefits of American technological innovation and military effectiveness.

The development and deployment of NGAD is a critical step for the U.S. and its allies to establish technological superiority over aggressive adversaries. By simply attempting to upgrade and adapt older systems such as the F-35, America puts itself and its overseas partners at risk of being overwhelmed by military powers better suited for a new age of combat. 

Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book is “Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture.”