The Iranian people are approaching their nation’s elections with a sense of resignation and foreboding. And rightly so.
The upcoming presidential election in the wake of Ebrahim Raisi’s recent death is a democratic charade. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei retains his unyielding grip on power. And with his son Mojtaba waiting in the wings, the stage is set for a hereditary succession anathema to the Islamic Republic’s founding principles — in essence, a new dynasty of shahs, reminiscent of past Persian dynasties.
The elections come as Iran stands at a crossroads moment of profound internal strife and external isolation. Domestically, it is troubled by spiraling inflation, unprecedented unemployment rates, a brain drain and a vigorous women’s movement. Externally, it is threatened by ISIS-K and Jaysh al Adl.
The elections expose a nation in the grips of existential identity and economic crises, compounded by a nuclear ambition that exacerbates its international isolation and provokes sanctions leading to even more economic hardship.
Increasingly cornered and alone, Iran is more dangerous than ever. Its ambitions in the Middle East are a high-wire attempt to assert dominance while avoiding direct confrontation with adversaries, such as the U.S. and Israel. The strategic interplay in regions like Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen highlights Iran’s complex relationship with allies and proxies, further complicating not just its global position but also matters at home.
That Iran continues to pump billions into outside countries and proxies rather than address problems at home only complicates its domestic economic problems and the disquiet of its people. For the people, it is a matter of national pride.
The international community’s stance towards Iran remains nuanced, especially concerning its nuclear ambitions. The Biden administration prefers diplomacy over condemnation. In recent months, though, Iran has taken a more aggressive stance against Israel, thereby impacting that delicate balance.
The permanence of clerical rule under a potentially hereditary system exposes the paradox at the heart of the Islamic Republic: A nation state tethered to theological underpinnings that dictate its politics, even when it contradicts itself, while trying to govern a populace clamoring for reform, modernization and openness.
The women’s movement, in particular, symbolizes a broader quest for fundamental human rights and freedoms, challenging the status quo and advocating transformative change.
In recent years, Iran’s political landscape has undergone profound transformation, due in part to unprecedented voter apathy, political discontent and election boycotts. The most recent March 1 elections, for example, had the lowest participation rate in the history of the Islamic Republic. Only 41 percent of eligible voters took part. The upcoming elections could break that dubious record.
There has also been significant manipulation of the election process, most notably through the disqualification of moderate and reformist candidates to fill parliamentary seats and the Assembly of Experts, which appoints and supervises the supreme leader. The purge of critics reflects a continuing shift toward hard-liner domination of all government branches and safeguards the regime’s continuity, especially concerning the succession of the supreme leader.
The deadly crackdowns on protests triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini have only led to even broader demands for social and political freedoms. These government responses have cast a long shadow over the legitimacy of the regime’s electoral processes. The latest call for election boycotts, seen as a referendum on the Islamic Republic itself, has been met with state narratives framing voting as a patriotic defense against external enemies like the West and Israel.
Now, 45 years after the Islamic Revolution sparked by the widespread wish to remove a monarchy, the Islamic Republic born of that revolution appears on the verge of repeating its unsettling history. Its election approaches with an unprepared religious cleric with a penchant for brutality prepared to take control of the Iran’s government, his only qualification being he is the son of the supreme leader.
It is the first step in bringing the Islamic Republic full circle to the reign of shahs.
Cyrus the Great, one of the greatest shahs in Persian history, once said: “Freedom, dignity, wealth — these three together constitute the greatest happiness of humanity. If you bequeath all three to your people, their love for you will never die.”
Unfortunately, regardless of the election’s outcome, the Iranian people will not have any combination of these from their government, and the Islamic Republic will never have love from its people.
Mohamad Mirghahari is the National Security Fellow at Seton Hall University’s School of Diplomacy and International Relations. Mirghahari previously served in the Department of Defense in key leadership positions in support of counterterrorism and special operations initiatives.