With a big election win, can Sheinbaum complete López Obrador’s political project?

The image could not be more epic: Thousands of people gathered in the iconic Zócalo around a single figure, a woman, acclaimed by a crowd shouting in unison: “presidenta, presidenta, presidenta. …” In an otherwise macho country, this scene would certainly be preserved for posterity. Mexico has elected its first female president in history.

At midnight, Guadalupe Tadei — the chairperson of the National Electoral Institute — had finally spoken. There was no question about the trends, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo won the election with about 58-60 percent of the vote, with a voter turnout of approximately 60 percent.

Not as charismatic as the current head of state, Sheinbaum has her own strengths. Originally from a science background, she entered politics at the hands of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, also known as AMLO, when she served as secretary of Environment during his tenure as head of government of Mexico City from 2000-2006.

At that time, she was already a prominent scientist. Having graduated in physics, with a doctorate in energy engineering, she worked as a researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico — the most prestigious university in the country — and is still a member of the National System of Researchers and the Mexican Academy of Sciences. 

She even went on to join the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007, a group that won the Nobel Peace Prize.

In 2015 Sheinbaum was elected mayor of Tlalpan, a borough in Mexico City, and became mayor of Mexico City in 2018. During her term in office, she created two public universities, a series of community centers in marginalized areas, and introduced a cable car system in the Iztapalapa borough, called Cablebús, among other things. She was particularly praised for her handling of insecurity and the COVID-19 pandemic and was nominated for the world mayor prize in 2021.

Throughout the campaign, Sheinbaum’s message focused on “the second floor of the Fourth Transformation,” meaning, the continuation and deepening of AMLO’s political project. (It is worth noting that Mexican presidents can serve only one term.) The term “Fourth Transformation” was coined by López Obrador with the ambition that his political project would be as transcendental as the other three previous historical transformations of Mexico, namely, the Independence, the Reform and the Revolution. 

The Fourth Transformation refers to the construction of a welfare state through a mixed economy combining aspects of socialism, Keynesianism and the free market. Under this system, the state implements social policies, owns strategic sectors of the economy, regulates private companies and develops infrastructure, but at the same time encourages free trade and foreign direct investment. 

On the other side, the “second floor” refers to the emblematic second level of the outer beltway of Mexico City (Anillo Periférico), a two-story highway built by the AMLO administration when he was head of government, of which Sheinbaum herself was in charge. This transportation facility is a popular representation of López Obrador’s commitment to public investment.

The metaphor is not gratuitous. In Sheinbaum’s own words, the second floor of the Fourth Transformation implies major “strategic investments” in all sorts of infrastructure: highways, train lines, industrial corridors, ports and airports. In a nutshell, to finish the set of projects started by López Obrador, thus laying the foundations for economic and social development.

Of course, the opposition has a radically different view. For them, the Fourth Transformation is a farce, a totalitarian project that ultimately seeks the destruction of democracy. According to this narrative, López Obrador is a tyrant who oppresses free speech and seeks to concentrate power. Sheinbaum is viewed as a puppet, allowing AMLO to pull the strings behind the scenes.

Whatever the opposition says, the truth is that most Mexicans support the Fourth Transformation, as the election results clearly reflect. López Obrador’s approval rating is an impressive 66 percent, giving him the highest approval rating of a Mexican president in the 21st century, and making him one of the top three most popular leaders worldwide. In addition, MORENA is the only party that enjoys a positive image and a strong political identification on behalf of the people. This is not surprising. After all, López Obrador’s government has significantly increased the minimum wage every year, allowed workers to have more vacation days, reduced poverty by 6 percent, appreciated the peso against the dollar, revitalized the country’s railway system and designed geoeconomic megaprojects such as the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. For people, the transformation is real.

Is the public perception so distorted that they are cheering for an authoritarian regime? One thing is clear, Claudia Sheinbaum is the woman of the moment. Only time will tell if the “second floor” was just a campaign slogan or a serious political project for the benefit of Mexicans. For now, it raises high expectations and the hope of millions.

Saúl Sánchez López is professor of political context at the Universidad de Guanajuato Campus Celaya-Salvatierra, and professor of geopolitics at the Universidad Iberoamericana León.