Mulvaney: Bragg’s folly: What to expect if Trump beats the rap

I suppose it might be difficult to add any sort of interesting insights on the current New York City criminal trial of former President Donald Trump. It has, unsurprisingly, dominated the headlines for weeks, as Trump once again has proven to be irresistible catnip for media across the political spectrum.  

As a result, there have been all manner of opining on the gravity of the event, the day-to-day interactions (one network even has a sort of live-tweeting running on television), the former president’s alleged sleeping habits, and the temperature (both figurative and literal) in the courtroom.

Indeed, there are precious few aspects of the story that haven’t been (with apologies to Arlo Guthrie) inspected, detected, infected, neglected, and selected. There is no shortage of material, for example, on what a conviction would mean, where Trump might spend jail time, whether he would be in the general prison population and how it would affect the campaign.   

And there have been no shortage of graphics lending visual encouragement to those who long to see the former president frog marched into a setting reminiscent of the television series “Oz.”

But there is one angle you don’t hear much about: What if Trump wins?

I know the simple suggestion is anathema to some. And it doesn’t even seem to appear to be an option to others. But is it really all that outrageous to contemplate?

Yes, the jurors are pulled from an overwhelmingly anti-Trump demographic area in Manhattan. But it probably isn’t fair to conclude from their home addresses that these jurors won’t take their responsibilities seriously. If they do, there are all sorts of places they can hang their hats, if they do indeed believe that the district attorney has failed to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. 

Maybe they consider the prosecution’s heavy reliance on the gratuitously salacious testimony of Stormy Daniels as evidence of a weak case. Maybe the prosecution’s theory of “a-small-paperwork-misdemeanor-turns-into-a-major-but-uncharged-felony” is just a little too much to swallow for anyone lacking an Ivy League Ph.D. in Trump Derangement Syndrome. Or maybe they spent five minutes listening to Michael Cohen and, well, they realized that he is Michael Cohen.

Maybe the jury just does what juries have done since juries have been around: Vote not guilty in order to send the message that, while maybe the defendant is technically guilty, this entire thing has been a huge waste of time, and the case never should have been brought in the first place.

Finally, even if they do think that Trump is guilty as sin, maybe they don’t want to open the door to throwing a former president in jail for a bookkeeping error, regardless of how intentional it might have been. Murder? Yes. Selling secrets to our enemies? Absolutely. Recording an otherwise legal hush money payment as a legal expense in his own business ledger? Probably not.

So, maybe Trump beats the rap. And if he does, you can only imagine the political fallout. This case — the first of the four criminal actions against him to be announced — was the genesis of Trump’s 2024 campaign mantra: “Look what they are trying to do to me…and if they are doing this to me, imagine what they can do to you…Vote for me and I will make sure that won’t happen.”  

Trump has ridden that simple message — and “Bidenflation” — to a small but not unsubstantial lead in the polls, and to leads in nearly every important swing state.

If he is found not guilty, that “victimization” message will likely become louder and even more credible. If a jury actually acquits him, he can and should point to the simple fact that the charges were “political lawfare” from the beginning. He will make similar claims regardless of the outcome, but how much more powerful that message becomes — especially for independent voters — once a Manhattan jury confirms it.

Regardless of outcome, if Trump does in fact win reelection in 2024, history may well look back on the decisions of one man as more responsible for that outcome than any other: Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D). By bringing a campaign attack ad thinly disguised as a criminal prosecution, Bragg gave Trump an entirely new platform from which to run his 2024 campaign. 

Bragg has been feted nationwide by those infected with Trump Derangement Syndrome for bringing this case, but one has to wonder how the left will see him if the jury foreman pronounces “not guilty,” and Donald Trump marches straight out of courtroom and into the White House.

Mick Mulvaney, a former congressman from South Carolina, is a contributor to NewsNation. He served as director of the Office of Management and Budget, acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and White House chief of staff under President Donald Trump.