Rafah is Biden’s ‘red line’ moment. Don’t botch it. 

As Israel moves against Rafah and U.S. officials scramble to respond, I’m eerily reminded of another foreign policy crisis that took place just over a decade ago, back when President Biden was still second-in-command: President Obama’s infamous “red line” retreat. 

Back in August 2013, in the midst of the Syrian civil war, Syrian President Bashar Assad unleashed a horrid chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilians, killing more than 1,400 people — many of them children.

Until that point, the United States had refrained from getting involved militarily in the war. But President Obama had drawn a red line: If Syria used chemical weapons, the United States would change its calculus on military intervention.

I was serving as a Syria policy expert in the State Department at the time. It was clear to me and my colleagues that the time for a response had come. Most experts assessed that only through a credible military response could Assad be convinced to end his use of chemical weapons.

But rather than enforce his red line, President Obama balked. He decided to ask Congress for authorization. Then, he agreed to a deal that Russia — Assad’s ally — would remove the Syrian chemical weapons stockpile. 

And with that, the brutal, bloody war continued without any deterrence of Assad’s escalating violence against his people. What was needed in that moment was not another regime-change intervention as some had feared, but rather, an assertive response that made it clear to Assad that there would be severe consequences for his continued use of chemical weapons and massive human rights violations against the Syrian people. 

Without this important signal, the bloody war continued to produce unimaginable suffering, death and destruction. Assad continued to use chemical weapons while making a mockery of international norms, not to mention, U.S. credibility.  

Beyond Syria, the consequences of this failure proved disastrous. Recognizing U.S. weakness, Russia intervened directly on behalf of Assad in pursuit of a total military victory rather than a political settlement. This led to even more violence — and produced one of the largest refugee crises ever. Far-right politicians on both sides of the Atlantic weaponized the fear of Muslim migration to win elections, exit the European Union and ban Muslims from coming to America. Years later, the failure in Syria may have also emboldened Russian President Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine.  

Today, President Biden faces his own “red line” moment. When asked in an interview if an invasion of Rafah was a red line, Biden replied, “It is a red line.”

The Biden administration recently paused a shipment of weapons to Israel over concerns that the country was considering a full-scale attack on Rafah, where over a million people are sheltering. And he threatened to suspend arms shipments if Israel went through such an attack.

Those are positive developments. But according to U.S. officials, in the days following the pause, the Biden administration has continued to send offensive and defensive weapons to Israel. And today, Israel is ratcheting up its attacks against Rafah.

The president must enforce his own policy and suspend weapons deliveries to Israel. Failure to do so would only embolden Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to ignore U.S. warnings and move forward against Rafah with disastrous consequences for the people of Gaza and the region. 

Biden mustn’t repeat the same mistakes of his former boss. He should not let another red line be crossed. 

Wa’el Alzayat is CEO of Emgage Action, which supports and advocates for just policies that strengthen America’s pluralistic democracy and protect human rights. Alzayat previously served as a Middle East policy expert for the U.S. Department of State for 10 years.