Mulvaney: Haley chooses refreshing honesty in South Carolina expectations

This past weekend, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley had an extended-length interview on one of the Sunday talk shows. It was filled with pre-planned talking point responses, but that is probably to be expected, especially from a Republican going on one of the left-leaning media outlets. When you know the primary goal of the person sitting across the table from you is to make you look foolish, those talking points help provide a safe haven.

But the interview also had a few moments of refreshing candor. The host asked the former United Nations ambassador how she felt she needed to do in the upcoming primary in her home state of South Carolina. Haley responded that she didn’t feel she needed to win, but she needed to do better than she did in New Hampshire.

She is probably right. She has a ways to go to get there.

Haley is currently trailing former President Donald Trump by somewhere between 20 to 30 points in the Palmetto State. In Iowa, she lost by 32. In New Hampshire, she lost by roughly 11. If she can show some strength — say, losing 52 to 48 percent — that could well expose weakness on Trump’s part. And that could fuel her argument to voters and to donors that she should soldier on to Super Tuesday. 

Closing that gap, however, will not be so easy.

It is not an exaggeration to call South Carolina “Trump Country.” The former president has always been widely popular there, winning general elections in 2016 by 14 points and in 2020 by 12 points. He still attracts huge crowds. He’s been endorsed by a slew of South Carolina lawmakers, including Sen. Tim Scott (R), by far the most popular politician in the state.

Haley has attempted to capitalize on that last part by portraying the Trump endorsers as part of the “good ole’ boy” network that she has railed against for years. But it’s hard to imagine successfully casting Trump as part of the establishment. Trump is many things, but the second coming of Jeb Bush is not one of them. The move might well even backfire on her, as she is the one being supported now by what remains of the Mitt Romney wing of the party.  

South Carolina voters know Nikki. South Carolina isn’t like Iowa or New Hampshire, where Haley had the burden — and the opportunity — of introducing herself to voters. In South Carolina, she was elected governor twice, and after Trump and maybe Scott, she is likely the best-known politician in the state. Those folks that gave Trump the big lead in early polls already know full well the choice before them. 

Perhaps Haley is counting on Trump self-destructing. That’s unlikely although not impossible.  After all, the only person in the field right now that could probably beat Donald Trump is…Donald Trump. He has one win, one loss in that matchup, so losing the GOP nomination at this point, although highly unlikely, is not impossible.

If that’s Haley’s plan, though, it is fraught with risks. If she stays in and doesn’t close the gap, that will betray a weakness that will not go unnoticed.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, and a slew of other Republican hopefuls will be watching the final tally next month. “Well, she got killed in her home state,” is the opening argument that someone will be making to donors as the 2028 field shapes up.

Additionally, the longer the South Carolina race goes on, the more likely it is to get nasty. Indeed, things may already be at that point, with Haley embracing the “permanently barred” threats issued by Trumpworld. And while politics will always provide us with the strangest of bedfellows, there is some visceral difference between the “voodoo economics” of the George H.W. Bush-vs.-Ronald Reagan days, and the “unhinged” rhetoric that Haley has been lobbing at Trump recently. At some point, Haley risks permanently alienating the MAGA base of the party.

Neither of those outcomes bodes well for a 2028 Haley run.

For that reason, I think that Haley could have well offered a modifier to her answer this past weekend: After stating that she needs “to do better than I did in New Hampshire,” she might add, “And if it doesn’t look like I’m getting there soon, I’ll be dropping out.”

On the eve of the Iowa caucuses, Vivek Ramaswamy was on television assuring everyone that he planned on staying in the race through Iowa, New Hampshire and “all the way to the convention.” Of course, no one believed that. Not a soul was surprised when he dropped out of the race entirely a few hours later.

But Haley’s answer was different. It was refreshing in its honesty. And it has the added benefit of being the right plan of action.

Mick Mulvaney, a former congressman from South Carolina, is a contributor to NewsNation. He served as director of the Office of Management and Budget, director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and acting White House chief of staff under President Donald Trump.