In the days leading up to Taiwan’s watershed national elections, I traveled through the country, experiencing the island’s beauty and democracy. My family and I attended political rallies. We spoke to people about their preferred candidates, their judgments on the ruling party, and their sincere differences of opinion on domestic issues that we rarely hear about in the U.S.
I was struck by the Taiwanese voters’ quiet resolve to make collective political decisions and maintain their way of life. For them, free and fair elections are entrenched. Polling is convenient and counting is efficient. Of Taiwan’s 23.5 million people, about 19 million were eligible voters; voter turnout was 72 percent. The winning and losing candidates accepted the results. Lai Ching-te, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate and the current vice president of Taiwan (officially Republic of China) won by 40 percent of the votes under Taiwan’s first-past-the-post system. No party won a majority in the parliament.
Lai’s victory did send a powerful message to China. But considering the immense external pressure on Taiwan and the backslides of democracies around the world, the process might have mattered even more than the result.
Since Taiwan became a full democracy in 1996, no party had kept the presidency for more than eight years (two terms), indicating Taiwan voters’ facility with rotation of power and checks and balances — hallmarks of democracy. Lai will succeed the incumbent Tsai Ing-wen, who has served two terms and is constitutionally barred from a third term. Lai, who vowed to continue Tsai’s policies, benefitted from enough voters’ endorsement of Tsai’s moderate policies, the opposition’s inability to form a joint ticket despite many voters’ fatigue with the DPP’s eight-year rule, and Beijing’s intimidation and attempted interference.
The Communist government in Beijing has never ruled Taiwan but claims it as a part of China and has threatened to use force against Taiwan, if it declares independence. Beijing particularly distrusts Lai, who called himself a “pragmatic worker of Taiwan independence” committed to safeguarding Taiwan’s democracy and sovereignty. Tensions across the Taiwan Strait, a key international waterway, have risen since August 2022, as China daily sent planes, vessels or balloons to waters or spaces off Taiwan to protest the- U.S. Speaker of House Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) visit to Taiwan.
The stakes are high. Taiwan, the world’s 22nd largest economy and one of the freest societies in Asia, plays an indispensable role in a free and open Indo-Pacific, as it solidly sides with the democratic camp (Lai declared in his victory speech), produces more than half of world’s semiconductors (and 92 percent of the most sophisticated ones), and straddles the strategic First Island Chain. As China under President Xi Jinping becomes more assertive, and Russia invaded Ukraine, Taiwan’s future is enmeshed in the growing U.S.-China great-power competition. The U.S. has no diplomatic relations with Taiwan and officially maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity,” but President Biden has stated on four occasions that the U.S. would help defend Taiwan, if China uses force against Taiwan.
All eyes are thus on Beijing, which is expected to further pressure Lai and squeeze Taiwan. Lai disavows the so-called 1992 Consensus — essentially an agreement to disagree on the “One China” issue — which facilitated a cross-strait détente during the last KMT (Chinese Nationalist Party) administration from 2008 to 2016. Whether Lai can extend acceptable olive branches to, or even work out a modus vivendi with, Beijing will be one of his top priorities.
Deft navigation of Taiwan’s external environment is hardly the Lai administration’s only challenge. Many domestic issues require attention: Stagnant salaries, high housing prices, lack of affordable housing, a social safety net needing additional investments, low birth rates, long-term care, an energy policy eschewing nuclear energy while over-promising on green energy, and increased defense spending. In fact, the disaffection of many young voters, who feel trapped between low wages and high housing prices, significantly contributed to the electoral success of the upstart Taiwan People Party in the legislative elections. The party says it offers a “third way” for votes who are fed up with the major ruling parties. With eight seats in a hung parliament, the Taiwan People Party could function as a critical minority. This could determine whether it has real staying power.
The other fundamental challenge for Lai is governance. Having won with only 40 percent of the electorate, he needs to carefully exercise his mandate. The hung parliament requires compromise and coalition building. Or, as Beijing might hope, will politics become more fragmented and contentious?
The world will be watching.
Vincent Wei-cheng Wang is dean of the College of Arts and Sciences and a professor of political science at Adelphi University.