Mellman: Mapping out the 2024 Electoral College fight

A couple of weeks ago a poll showing President Biden and former President Trump locked in a tie appeared to send shockwaves through Democratic Washington. Regular readers of this column had no reason to be surprised, nor frankly did anyone who’s paid close attention to American politics over the last decade. 

 As reported here, on average the Biden-Trump horse race has been close to even in the national polls all year.  

 No candidate in the past three presidential contests has garnered even 51.5 percent of the national popular vote. 

 It would be odd if this weren’t a tick tight race. Finding Biden or Trump with a decisive lead — that would be surprising. 

 Of course, we all know national polls don’t necessarily tell us much about the outcome, which is decided by the states. We also recognize that most voters are creatures of partisan habit. The decisive ballots will be cast in just five to seven states. 

 The Biden campaign already placed a bet in the form of a television buy in seven states, wisely conceding (at least for the moment) 44 states (including Washington, D.C.) worth 445 electoral votes to their habitual partisanship. 

 If the Trump campaign is half as smart as the former president thinks they are, they’ll focus on the same handful of states. 

 So, where do things stand there? 

 Before proceeding, I should confess that such an exploration is fraught. There are relatively few polls in these states and fewer good ones. Moreover, lots can change between now and November 2024, including the candidates.  

 With lots of caveats, start with a state that will rightly get tremendous focus but may be out of reach for Donald Trump — Wisconsin. 

 Trump won it by less than a point in 2016 and Biden emerged victorious by less than a point four years later. 

 Both campaigns would be wise to lavish attention on the Badger State. 

 But it looks pretty good for Biden. Averaging the polls done over the summer months, Biden is ahead by 8 points in Wisconsin. Ignoring the state is a good way to lose that lead, but team Biden isn’t committing that error. Based on the poll data, it’s the least toss-upy of the toss-up states. 

Putting Wisconsin in the Biden column gives the incumbent 236 of the 270 electoral votes he needs. He’s got several ways to get the remaining 34. 

 Adding the two largest remaining swing states — Pennsylvania and Michigan — would seal the deal.  

Biden holds a mere 1-point edge in both in the average of summer polls — ahead, but about as close as it gets and very similar to his final 2020 leads there.  

Pennsylvania has four more electoral votes than Michigan and those four can make a difference. Given how close and how large it is, Pennsylvania will likely play a pivotal role in both parties’ strategies. 

 If Biden lost Pennsylvania but won Michigan (along with Wisconsin), he’d have to win three of Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina to reach 270. 

 Alternatively, if he won Pennsylvania but lost Michigan, he could get to 270 by winning Georgia, or North Carolina, or Nevada and Arizona.  

Losing both Michigan and Pennsylvania would require Biden to run the table with all the remaining swing states. 

 How difficult is that? 

 In Nevada he averages a 3-point lead, while in Arizona he’s down 1 point, in Georgia down by 3 points, and in North Carolina it’s -5 points for President Biden.  

By contrast, Trump must win at least one of Pennsylvania, Michigan or (much less likely) Wisconsin. Of course, replicating his 2016 showing and winning all three gives him the presidency. Losing all three, as in 2020, puts Biden back in office. 

 Winning just Pennsylvania still requires Trump to prevail in both North Carolina and Georgia, or one of those two along with a combination of Arizona and Nevada. 

 There’ll be lots more polls in these states and we’ll get a firmer fix on where they stand. 

But for now, call the Electoral College tight, with a slight Biden advantage.    

Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has helped elect 30 U.S. senators, 12 governors and dozens of House members. Mellman served as pollster to Senate Democratic leaders for over 20 years, as president of the American Association of Political Consultants, a member of the Association’s Hall of Fame, and is president of Democratic Majority for Israel.