Feehery: Can McCarthy ride out this fall’s perfect storm?

In late October of 1991, the crew of the Andrea Gail went down in what was subsequently called “The Perfect Storm” in a best-selling book and an Oscar-nominated movie. 

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and his merry band of House Republicans should seek to avoid a similar fate to the Andrea Gail this coming October.  

In the movie, the elements of the perfect storm were powerful weather fronts and Category 5 hurricane. In Washington, the perfect storm is even more complex. A looming government shutdown, a demand from the White House for an emergency spending supplemental, calls from the right for the beginning of an impeachment inquiry into President Biden’s conduct and the ongoing drama that follows President Trump in seemingly every courthouse in America all make for a toxic legislative mix. 

How McCarthy handles this perfect storm could go a long way into deciding how House Republicans will fare in the midterm elections and could have an outsized role in the presidential election. A mutiny that divides the GOP could sink the fortunes of the party and lead to a legislative disaster. On the other hand, should House Republicans unify behind the Speaker’s able leadership, they could ride the storm out and be poised for a big victory in November of 2024.  

McCarthy has been able to navigate difficult waters before. He survived multiple efforts to stop him on his way to the Speaker’s gavel and he negotiated what should have been seen as a massive victory in a debt ceiling fight earlier this year. He did this by continuously communicating with all factions of his GOP Conference as he effectively messaged to the broader public through a hostile and partisan news media.  

On the merits, House Republicans have a good case to make on the endemic corruption of the Biden family business, although the media would prefer to keep its focus on Donald Trump. An impeachment inquiry could have a salutary impact of focusing the American people’s attention on the business connections between Hunter Biden and the big guy. If the Republicans have evidence that what Biden did in Ukraine as vice president was part of corrupt business deal, that could weaken the president’s hand as he demands more funding for Ukraine in a disaster supplemental. 

It is conventional wisdom in Washington that McCarthy needs to shut the government down for at least a few days to show that he is willing to fight on behalf of the Freedom Caucus. But I don’t know if that calculus adds up. It seems to me that a lapse in government funding only distracts the attention of the media away from Biden and allows the Democrats to call the Republicans extremist. 

Government shutdowns aren’t always bad politically, but they are almost always a waste of time and money. If Republicans do want to shut the government down, they need to be strategic in communicating why they are doing so and what they hope to achieve. And it has to be for reasons that resonate with voters outside the Beltway. Having a temper-tantrum over the size and scope of spending isn’t a good enough reason to shut down the government. Making sure that the government doesn’t impose a vaccine or mask mandate, making damn sure that schools aren’t closed again, having a fight over securing the southern border, making sure the president complies with all subpoenas regarding the Ukraine investigation, these are good fights to have and potentially a good reason to shut down the government, at least over a weekend.  

House Republicans need to be specific in their demands and sure in the course that they want to plot as they move forward in this fall’s perfect storm. To win, they must stay unified as a team and stay focused on their key objectives. As we saw with the Andrea Gail, failure is an option, just not a very good one.

Feehery, a partner at EFB Advocacy, blogs at thefeeherytheory.com. He served as spokesman to former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.), as communications director to former House Majority Whip Tom DeLay (R-Texas) and as a speechwriter to former House Minority Leader Bob Michel (R-Ill.).