The roller coaster midterm elections continue. Predictions are made, then modified. The agile tongues of the punditry sprain from overexerted twists and turns. Like one of those “Game of Thrones” recaps prior to the next episode, here’s the narrative for this midterm season:
Last fall: “The Democrats are doomed.”
Last summer: “The Democrats have a chance.”
Last week: “The Democrats are doomed.”
But that’s the way it’s always been for both parties in midterms. Historically, the president’s party enters the cycle against foreboding winds. Sometime around August, the winds shift favorably. Then, in the closing weeks, they shift again.
There are several reasons for this predictable meteorology. First, undecided voters tend to crystallize their choices in October. Second, massive infusions of money saturate the airwaves, consolidating turnout and crystallizing the decisions of swing voters. Third, toss-up districts tend to break disproportionately for one party, as predicted by Amy Walter’s recent analysis in the Cook Political Report.
This cycle has been different only in the short-term intensity of the changing climate. Forecasts have been roiled by the Supreme Court’s decision allowing states to restrict abortions; and former President Trump’s omnipresence has made this, to a notable extent, a referendum on the last president as well as the current.
Months ago, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) predicted a gain of 60 seats. Today, most Republicans tell me they’ve downscaled their predictions to a gain of between 15 and 25. In an interview in Punchbowl News on Wednesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said she “feels good about keeping the majority” and is “unflinching in her assessment that Democrats are well positioned.”
It’s all so unpredictable, except for one immutable condition in the American electorate: We are a course correcting country.
Think about the results of the past seven election cycles (Whiplash alert!):
In 2008 Americans elected Barack Obama because they desperately wanted change. Two years later, they elected a tea party Congress to stop Obama’s changes. Then, in 2012, they reelected Obama to stop the tea party Congress. Two years after that, they expanded the Republican House majority to check Obama. In 2016, they elected Donald Trump to stop everybody. In 2018, they elected a Democratic majority to stop Trump. In 2020 they chose ideological consistency by electing Joe Biden. A year later, they revolted at the polls by choosing Republicans in state and local elections because they wanted to constrain Biden.
Dramamine, anyone?
On the surface, it appears as if the electorate swings wildly back and forth. But a deeper dig reveals a perfect consistency in the electorate: It has acted as a guardrail, nudging its leaders consistently away from the far left and far right lanes.
There may be good news in all of this for Democrats; and a warning for the GOP. If Republicans win Congress in less than three weeks, the best forecast of what happens in 2024 comes from 2012. When the tea party came to town in 2010, it commenced a two-year cycle of political chaos and crisis, including insurrections against GOP leaders and government shutdowns.
On election day 2010, when the Republicans took over 60 House seats, President Obama’s job approval was 43 percent — almost exactly where President Biden is in this week’s 538 rating. Two years later, Democrats picked up seats in the House, and Obama won eight of nine swing states.
Congress has become even more gerrymandered since then. In a House that has become deeper red and brighter blue, members increasingly fear a primary from their flanks more than a challenge in the general election. Just as the tea party (and an improving economy) set the stage for Democratic victories in 2012, the new majority of Republicans, if elected, will set the tone for 2024. They politicize at their own risk. If they come to Washington not to govern but to nurse grudges; not to compromise but to exact revenge with a long list of impeachment resolutions; if their voice is that of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), whose latest lunacy came days ago when she charged that Democrats were intent on mutilating the genitalia of children; then the country will course correct in 2024.
If he becomes speaker, Kevin McCarthy’s biggest headache might not be the Democrats but taming and restraining the excesses of his own party. If he fails, voters will correct course in 2024.
I mean, it’s all so predictable, is it not?
Steve Israel represented New York in the U.S. House of Representatives over eight terms and was chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 2011 to 2015. He is now director of the Cornell Jeb E. Brooks School of Public Policy Institute of Politics and Global Affairs. Follow him on Twitter @RepSteveIsrael.