Morning Report — NATO is Biden’s next big test

by Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch - 07/10/24 6:30 AM ET

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World leaders are descending on Washington this week for the NATO summit, but all eyes remain on President Biden.

The annual conference in Washington through Thursday marks the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 75th anniversary. The alliance is ostensibly meeting to discuss topics ranging from Ukraine’s potential membership to an increasingly aggressive China and Israel’s war against Hamas, and NATO leaders will gather today and Thursday to draft a joint communiqué on policy, including support for Ukraine (The Hill and The Wall Street Journal).

But the focus will inevitably land on Biden, still reeling from a disastrous debate performance that has U.S. politicians and voters questioning if he is up to the job.

Abroad, those worries continue, as world leaders are increasingly on edge about the possibility of former President Trump returning to the Oval Office, and once again pushing the United States into an isolationist stance. So, they will be keeping a close eye on Biden, especially during his Thursday evening solo news conference to cap off the summit — which the White House has described as a “big boy press conference” (NBC News).

BIDEN ISN’T THE ONLY ATTENDEE trying to prove something during the NATO summit: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is lobbying for his country’s entrance to the alliance. It’s unlikely to happen soon, experts warn, but NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said earlier this week he expects NATO to agree, by the end of the summit, on moving the roughly 50 nations that support Ukraine with military aid into a command post in Germany staffed by the alliance (CNN).

“Together, we built a global coalition to stand with Ukraine,” Biden said Tuesday in a speech to open the summit. “Make no mistake, Russia is failing in this war.”

“More than two years into [Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s war of choice, its losses are staggering,” he added. “More than 350,000 Russian troops, dead, wounded … many young people have left Russia because they no longer see a future in Russia.”

The Washington Post: NATO vows lasting support for Ukraine but won’t promise membership.

Others to watch: Labour Party leader Keir Starmer, who is on his first official international trip as Britain’s new prime minister after being elected on July 4. He will meet with Biden at the White House today. Then there’s French President Emmanuel Macron, whose National Assembly is in paralysis after he called a snap election that rebuked the country’s far right — but didn’t result in a clear ruling majority.

Politico: A guide to some of the most interesting characters in Washington this week planning for the future of NATO.

The summit is special for Stoltenberg, too — it will be his last since taking the job as secretary-general in 2014. He extended his term leading the alliance four times, but will step down in October, to be succeeded by outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

Asked what he considers his proudest achievement since taking the post, Stoltenberg told Politico, “That I have been able to keep this alliance together.”

3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY:

▪ Ammunition is now available for sale in convenience-focused vending machines in Alabama, Oklahoma and Texas.

▪ A junior enlisted sailor serving in the Navy’s hospital corps based in Fort Belvoir, Va., was administratively disciplined after trying and failing in February to access Biden’s medical records.

▪ Many entities and vital programs depend on accurate, updated, reliable federal data. That data is at risk, according to a report and letter sent to leaders in Congress Tuesday.

LEADING THE DAY

© The Associated Press / Andrew Harnik | The U.S. Capitol.

CONGRESS & POLITICS

WARNINGS TO WHISPERS: Call it grudging acceptance or feigned optimism on Capitol Hill. Biden and his Democratic allies appear to have temporarily quieted a potential roar of public second-guessing among lawmakers about the president’s political prospects.

The president this week refused calls to step down as the nominee, which left second guessers in his party few good options. Senate Democrats privately vented their doubts Tuesday that Biden can sustain the energy and campaign skills to defeat Trump in November.

Several senators, meeting as a conference, said Biden’s lock on pledged delegates and determination to continue at the top of the ticket muzzled the debate for now. The “vast majority” of Democratic senators who spoke during their meeting in the Capitol said they are skeptical about Biden’s ability to win following his June 27 debate disaster, a source told The Hill’s Alexander Bolton.

Democratic Sens. Jon Tester (Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio) — who are seeking reelection this year — and Michael Bennet (Colo.), who was reelected in 2022, predicted to their colleagues that Biden is likely to lose to his predecessor, according to a second source familiar with the discussion. Some Senate Democrats confided to one another their belief that their party is “headed for serious trouble” with Biden, 81, as their standard-bearer.

▪ The Hill: The tide in the House appears to turn for Biden, as Democratic lawmakers rally to support him.

▪ The Hill: New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill became the seventh Democrat to call on Biden to step aside Tuesday.

The Cook Political Report moved Electoral College ratings for six states in Trump’s direction Tuesday, including Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, which moved from toss-ups to “lean Republican.” Minnesota, New Hampshire and the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska shifted from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat.”

The Hill: Vice President Harris has amplified her praise for Biden while bashing Trump, calling the president “a fighter.”

The Hill’s Niall Stanage in The Memo asks whether Trump — and the Republican National Convention next week — might give some respite to Biden?

DELEGATE RELEASE: Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, eager to preserve her political options in 2028, released all of her 97 delegates Tuesday and urged them to vote for Trump at next week’s convention, which she was not invited to attend.

“The nominating convention is a time for Republican unity,” Haley said in a statement. “We need a president who will hold our enemies to account, secure our border, cut our debt and get our economy back on track. I encourage my delegates to support Donald Trump.”

The Hill: Trump, during a Tuesday rally in South Florida, teased the idea of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) as his running mate and criticized Harris. The former president told his supporters he wants to debate Biden this week and challenges the president to join him in an 18-hole golf match to “redeem himself” following their June 27 debate. The Biden campaign’s retort: “Biden doesn’t have time for Donald Trump’s weird antics — he’s busy leading America and defending the free world. Donald Trump is a liar, a convict, and a fraud only out for himself — par for the course.”

🐘 The Milwaukee convention beginning Monday puts a spotlight on Wisconsin’s importance to both parties this year. Milwaukee is a liberal stronghold in a largely purple state. Trump lost the state by 20,000 votes in 2020. It’s still close: Biden leads Trump by a point, 47 to 46 percent support, in an aggregate of polls from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ.

2024 Roundup:

▪ Biden is meeting today in Washington with union leaders in an effort to shore up his reelection backing.

▪ California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), one of Biden’s ardent defenders, has emerged as a cheerleader attempting to soothe Democratic fears over the president’s wobbly debate performance last month.

▪ Among “elite” Democrats calling for Biden’s withdrawal from the ticket are former Obama White House aides who took their political analysis to television and podcasts, including David Axelrod, Jon Favreau and former press secretary Jen Psaki.

▪ Jennifer O’Malley Dillon, the president’s campaign chair, is working to dig Biden out as some Democrats try to derail him.

▪ A series of political earthquakes has shaken New Jersey’s Democratic machine to its core over the past year as a new generation of leaders seeks to bring change to the Garden State. This “has been the year of the most significant change in politics in New Jersey in the last 50 years,” Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop told the Hill. “There has been a massive weakening in who controls the system and there is pressure on the state’s machines.”

▪ House Republicans this week are reveling in Democrats’ troubles with their presidential nominee and a sudden shift in news media focus away from GOP leaders and Trump, at least for the time being.

▪ RIP: Former Oklahoma Republican Sen. James Inhofe, 89, died Tuesday.

WHERE AND WHEN

The House will meet at 10 a.m.

The Senate will convene at 10 a.m.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m. Biden will drop by a meeting of national union leaders at the AFL-CIO in Washington at 11 a.m. He will greet NATO leaders participating in the alliance’s annual summit with an official welcome and group photo beginning at 12:15 p.m. Biden will participate in the first summit working session at 1 p.m. The president will hold a bilateral meeting at 5:30 p.m. at the White House with the new British prime minister. The president and first lady Jill Biden will host an official arrival ceremony at 7:40 p.m. for NATO allies and partners at the White House followed by a dinner at 8 p.m.

Vice President Harris is in Dallas to address a national Alpha Kappa Alpha sorority event at 11 a.m. CT, after which she will return to Washington.

The first lady will host a brunch reception for NATO spouses and partners at the Smithsonian’s National Museum of American History at 12:15 p.m.

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff will address a campaign event virtually at 6 p.m. ET.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will testify to the House Financial Services Committee with a semiannual monetary policy report at 10 a.m.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will meet at 2 p.m. with Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz about combating illicit financing for Hamas and aiding West Bank economic stability and security.

ZOOM IN

© The Associated Press / Susan Walsh | Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell in June.

ECONOMY

HOLDING INTEREST RATES HIGH for too long to battle inflation poses risks to economic growth, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told senators Tuesday, although he offered no timeline for when the central bank will begin to cut rates. Many analysts and investors believe a change could begin in September.

Powell, who described a robust but cooling jobs market, will appear today before a House panel to present a similar monetary policy update. Fed policymakers next meet at the end of the month.

The chair pointed to mounting signs of a shifting employment market after government data published July 5 showed a third straight month of rising unemployment. “Elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” he said. “Reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”

Powell said he wouldn’t have reached that conclusion as recently as two months ago — before the release of the June jobs report by the Labor Department. Unemployment remains historically low but climbed last month to 4.1 percent.

Fed officials are closer to their 2 percent inflation target, but not quite there. As they pause to gather more data before their next move, they are eyeing a balancing act. Wait too long to reduce borrowing costs and a weakening economy could accelerate layoffs. The central bank wants to be sure that inflationary pressures don’t rebound.

▪ Bloomberg News: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who also testified on Capitol Hill Tuesday, echoed Powell’s appraisal that the economy has become less inflationary.

▪ The Hill: If Trump wins the White House and Republicans gain control of both houses of Congress next year, many investors and economists predict inflation would rise because proposed GOP tax and tariff policies could trigger higher prices if enacted.

ELSEWHERE

© The Associated Press / Evan Vucci | Former President Trump is expected to try to prevent damaging evidence from his 2020 election subversion indictment from becoming public before November.

COURTS

TRUMP IS EXPECTED to launch a new effort to prevent any damaging evidence from his 2020 election subversion case from becoming public before the election, in an effort to shut down the potency of any “mini-trials” where high-profile officials could testify against him. The former president’s lawyers are expected to argue that the judge can decide whether conduct is immune based on legal arguments alone, removing the need for witnesses or evidentiary hearings (The Guardian).

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity ruling placed new limits on future prosecutors — constraints that legal experts see as the newest and most consequential result of a long-running fight between conservative justices and the Justice Department (The Washington Post).

ONE WAY OR ANOTHER, Rudy Giuliani’s ability to leverage bankruptcy to retain control of his finances appears headed for an end. But the question remains, what’s next? U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Sean Lane is set to address competing proposals from Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City and a former Trump adviser, and his creditors at a hearing today — any of which would mark a drastic shift in the case after months of rising tensions and stalled progress (The Hill).

👉 A suspected carjacker outside the Washington, D.C., residence of Justice Sonia Sotomayor was shot July 5 by a U.S. Marshal assigned to protect the justice’s home. An 18-year-old suspect later was arrested at a hospital and charged.

OPINION

■ Biden’s choices affect NATO, too, by The Washington Post editorial board.

■ It’s NATO’s birthday, but all eyes are on the White House, by Harlan Ullman, opinion contributor, The Hill.

THE CLOSER

© The Associated Press / Andres Leighton | Piña coladas in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

And finally … 🍹Speaking for ourselves at Morning Report, we’re thrilled that it’s National Piña Colada Day. It’s the middle of a strange news week. It’s about 100 degrees in Washington, where traffic is a mess because of a NATO summit. Anything cold with a parasol qualifies as a tropical escape.

Who created a cocktail version of a rum-soaked coconut-pineapple smoothie? Invention has many bartender fathers and Puerto Rico figures in the annals of this mixology. The creamy coconut version with “strained pineapple” is said to have been developed at San Juan’s Caribe Hilton Hotel in 1954.

¡Salud!

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